OPINION:
As the war between Ukraine and Russia enters its second year, the Biden administration owes the American people a defined end state with aid predicated on transparency.
After the administration’s spectacular failure of deterrence early last year, President Biden’s recent declaration of support for “as long as it takes” is not a strategy. It is a slogan. It is also a harbinger of U.S. entanglement in another forever war, even if by proxy, and the increased likelihood of a frozen conflict — none of which serves our interests. Reaching a decisive end state that eliminates Russia as a geopolitical threat to allow a pivot to the Indo-Pacific, however, does.
America’s current unnecessary “rock and hard place” position is a result of dithering leadership defined by the Biden administration’s flip-flopping and the slow-rolling of lethal aid to Ukraine. Those who admonish Biden for being weak on the U.S. border while being strong on Ukraine’s get it half-right. Mr. Biden is weak on securing our border, but he’s also clearly been weak on Ukraine’s as well — initially deeming a Russian “minor incursion” as acceptable.
The administration’s disregard of our own sovereignty significantly undermines our ability to project power on behalf of sovereignty elsewhere. It’s a failure of both domestic and foreign policy with catastrophic consequences.
What is needed now is a clear-eyed, strong commitment to rapidly give the Ukrainians what they need to decimate committed Russian forces in Ukraine and disrupt their supply chain logistics. Arming Ukraine with this necessary military equipment must come with the precondition that upon decisive battlefield success across large swaths of eastern Ukraine, negotiations must occur in earnest.
Ukrainians know the speed of delivery for increased means of destruction is critical against Russian forces typically unfazed by high casualties coupled with their ability to regenerate via conscription at breakneck speed.
Status-quo incrementalism will only prolong the conflict and give Russia the upper hand in a war of attrition. It also gives Russian forces time to iteratively learn and adjust tactics — something they are doing with success in Bakhmut. A Russian victory need be defined only as control of large swaths of energy and agriculture rich eastern and southern Ukraine.
Moreover, while this war may have been an attempt by Russia to upend the world order in their favor, it’s instead accelerating a shift in the center of gravity in Europe away from Germany and France to Poland and the Baltics. Unfortunately, it is also demonstrating America’s inability to effectively bring together multiregional coalitions with Israel, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, India, Turkey and Indonesia on the sidelines.
Instead, Russia is strengthening its alliance with Iran, forging closer ties with North Korea, and building up its “no limits” partnership with China. Outside of the obvious concerning nature of this adversarial amalgamation, China would like nothing more than to see America bogged down in eastern Europe with fracture among its allies. Russia is a strategic adversary of the U.S., and a Russian defeat of some magnitude will mean a generation of recovery, giving the U.S. latitude to lessen investment in NATO and redirect to the Pacific.
A majority of Americans agree that China is our greatest enemy, and China is watching the war in Ukraine closely. It is also providing nonlethal military support to Russia, which could be everything from body armor to night vision goggles to drones. All of those things enhance lethality despite their nonlethal designation and are contributing components to the elongation of war. This is of particular significance as U.S. Navy officials point to a truncated timeline and 2027 as the event horizon when China will likely have the capability to take Taiwan.
As President Ronald Reagan noted in his famous D-Day Memorial speech at Ponte du Hoc, “We’ve learned that isolationism never was and never will be an acceptable response to tyrannical governments with an expansionist intent.” For the first time since World War II, the U.S. is confronted with the possibility of two such governments.
To date, America’s response in Ukraine has been to provide just enough lethal aid to drag out the conflict, not define it. This is in Russia’s and China’s best interests, not ours. Time, and decisive resolution in Ukraine, is of the essence.
• Meaghan Mobbs is a senior fellow at the Independent Women’s Forum.
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