DeSantis vs. Trump fills up most of GOP field

The harsh reality confronting Nikki Haley as she prepares to launch her 2024 Republican presidential bid — and the others who follow suit — is that the contest has already turned into a two-person race between former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis have a leg up on potential rivals. Their popularity and status as household names have put them in a tier all their own.

Craig Robinson, an Iowa-based Republican Party watchdog, said lesser-known “B-level actors” face enormous challenges to break through the two heavyweights crowding the political ring.

The nomination battle will kick off in earnest after Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis start engaging in Iowa and the other early nominating states or face off on a debate stage, he said.

There are “staring contests at the top between Trump and DeSantis, and at the bottom, there are all these real eager beavers raring to get going, but they don’t have the juice to fire it up and really get it going,” Mr. Robinson said. “You have two heavyweights who are like, ‘I might not engage until August or September.’”

A recent Monmouth University survey showed that Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis were far and away the first names on the minds of Republican voters when asked whom they would like to see as their party’s nominee for president.

Mrs. Haley barely registered. She was in the same boat as former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Of the 566 Republicans who responded, 66% named Mr. Trump or Mr. DeSantis as their top-of-mind choice, 24% did not know, and the remaining 10% spread out among the lower-tier contenders.

“Right now, it looks like any other candidate besides Trump and DeSantis would likely play a spoiler role at best, but it’s not clear yet how that will play out,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “For example, Trump has relatively stronger support among evangelicals. But he could actually do better in a state like New Hampshire with fewer evangelical voters if the other candidates split the non-evangelical vote, leading to lower support for DeSantis.”

“That won’t come into focus, though, until we know who is actually in the field,” he said.

Asked by The Washington Times how big of a challenge it would be for anybody not named Trump or DeSantis to break out, David Kochel, an Iowa-based Republican Party strategist, said it would be “hard unless the media decides to cover them.”

“That’s going to be on you guys,” Mr. Kochel said.

Mr. DeSantis is expected to launch a White House bid after the Florida Legislature adjourns. Mr. Trump, meanwhile, has had the field to himself since jumping into the race days after the midterm elections in November.

The action will pick up Wednesday after Mrs. Haley launches her bid in Charleston, South Carolina. From there, she is scheduled to make official stops as a candidate in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire and then Iowa, home to the caucuses that traditionally kick off the nomination contests.

Mrs. Haley’s star has burned bright in the eyes of Republicans who celebrate her rise as the first female minority governor of South Carolina and her role as Mr. Trump’s lead envoy to the United Nations.

Mrs. Haley has signaled that she plans to make the case for new leadership and generational change after a series of election setbacks, including on Mr. Trump’s watch.

She is embracing the underdog label while warning people to underestimate her at their own risk.

“Haley is jumping in because she has the operation and she’s ready,” said a person who is familiar with Mrs. Haley’s thinking. “She will contrast her vision for a strong and proud American with Joe Biden’s weak and woke record.”

Expect Mrs. Haley to focus on restoring American pride and combating liberals’ embrace of socialism and defeatism.

“We’re seeing a generation being taught to hate Americans,” the person said. “This is the greatest country on Earth. That’s her message, and her personal story is proof of that.”

Mrs. Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants and a married mother of two, teased her announcement with a dramatic video last week featuring Charles Mackay’s “No Enemies” poem as a way to beef up her image as a doer.

The video includes shots of the Statue of Liberty and the Marine Corps War Memorial and closes with a video clip of Mrs. Haley saying: “I wear heels. It is not for a fashion statement. It is because if I see something wrong, I am going to kick them every single time.”

Voters are still getting to know Mrs. Haley. The Monmouth survey showed that more Republicans had heard of Rep. George Santos, the embattled freshman congressman from New York who lied to voters about nearly everything on his resume.

The good news for Mrs. Haley is that those who know her tend to like her and she has room to grow.

In the Monmouth survey, close to half of Republicans said they held a favorable view of Mrs. Haley compared with 11% who had an unfavorable view of her and 41% who either had no opinion or did not know her.

Mr. Trump welcomed the news of Mrs. Haley’s pending bid by resharing a video in which she vowed not to run against him if he ran for president.

Mr. Trump has trained most of his fire at Mr. DeSantis. In one instance, he reshared a photograph on social media that accused the Florida governor of drinking with underage girls as a teacher and labeled him a “groomer.”

Mr. DeSantis received higher favorability marks from voters in the Monmouth survey, with 18% of respondents giving Mr. Trump poor marks compared with 6% for Mr. DeSantis.