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SEOUL, South Korea — “People’s war” is a game two can play in the hotly disputed waters of the South China Sea.
In a creative ploy, Philippine civilian volunteers have assembled and crewed a “Christmas Convoy” to set sail into waters west of the archipelago to challenge Chinese seaborne assets patrolling there.
According to recent reports from the Philippines, the government’s National Security Council has reversed its stance opposing the idea as too risky and has given the green light to the convoy, which is being organized by the Atin Ito coalition, an alliance of civic groups.
Philippine coast guard vessels will reportedly escort the civilian fleet of some 40 boats, led by a “mother ship” capable of holding 100 people. The convoy will depart the island of Palawan on Sunday.
China has been trying to change the game as well. Likely awaiting the convoy in the region is a “swarm” of Chinese fishing vessels.
Expansive Chinese sovereignty claims in recent years in what Manila calls the “West Philippine Sea” have raised popular indignation. It is part of a larger regional clash between China and its smaller neighbors over ownership claims in one of the world’s busiest and most strategic commercial waterways. The civilian convoy initiative recognizes that the Philippines and its armed forces are massively outgunned in any one-on-one confrontation with Beijing.
“The responsibility is not just on the side of the government. Citizens must do what they can,” Edicio Dela Torre, one of the organizers of the Atin Ito coalition, told a TV interviewer Sunday. “Citizens of different political persuasions are aligned, [so] we must maximize this opportunity to experience and express that we Philippines can get our act together and unite.”
The cruise will take the convoy into the vicinity of the tense flashpoint in the Chinese-Philippine battle of wills: the “Second Thomas Shoal.” The Philippines built a makeshift naval base around the grounded, rusting hulk of the Sierra Madre, a World War II-era ship. The government in Manila has not given permission for the convoy to call at the disputed shoal directly.
China has blocked resupply missions to the Philippine marines who man the forlorn outpost.
Beijing claims virtually the entire South China Sea and disputes claims from Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam to sovereign controls over parts of the sea.
Beijing has ignored a 2016 ruling in Manila’s favor by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.
The massed Chinese fishing boats worry Manila.
Video from Saturday shows “swarms” of about 135 Chinese fishing boats off the disputed Whitsun Reef, some 200 miles west of the Philippines and 641 miles south of China. The vessels refused to answer Philippine coast guard radio challenges.
A line of 28 vessels is visible, apparently lashed together beam to beam, leaving naval analysts puzzled.
“That’s called ‘rafting,’ and it is something we would normally only do when passing stores, food, fuel or people between ships,” said an officer of a U.S.-allied navy who spoke to The Washington Times on the condition of anonymity because he did not have permission to speak to the press.
It holds the potential for at least one permanent use.
“If they are over reefs or shoals and if they all of a sudden sank, then your reef or shoal becomes an immediate island and could be claimed as a land mass,” he said.
Blue water, gray zone
The unofficial Christmas Convoy appears to be guided by the concept that “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.” Repeated and relentless Chinese incursions have infuriated local Filipino fishermen and eroded Manila’s maritime sovereignty claims.
The struggle is uneven. China’s assets in the South China Sea include sizable elements of the world’s largest fishing fleet and deeply intertwined “maritime militias,” as well as coast guard vessels.
With the world’s second most powerful naval force after the U.S., China has built artificial military outposts on reefs and shoals in the South China Sea.
Despite its legal wins and the backing of the U.S., the Philippines has struggled to combat the vast resources Beijing commands in the sovereignty battle. In this hybrid war of nerves fought around islands, islets, reefs and fishing grounds, the Christmas Convoy embraces some of the “gray zone” military tactics that China pioneered.
China’s “maritime militias” are thought to be centrally controlled, but crews of the largely civilian fishing vessels reportedly include some PLA veterans.
According to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, China’s fleet numbers 564,000 vessels, more than one-tenth of the entire world fleet of 4.1 million.
The Philippines’ response: Two can play at that game.
“This is a civilian initiative,” Mr. Dela Torre told a television interviewer. “But we were already told that [China] will not believe it is an independent civilian initiative … because that is the situation on their side.”
Timing should ensure high spirits. The convoy will set off 15 days before Christmas, a holiday celebrated with gusto in Asia’s most Christian nation. One part of the convoy’s mission will be to deliver Yuletide gifts to the fishermen and soldiers stationed in the region.
Although it may make for a great “David vs. Goliath” story, questions loom over how long organizers can keep the effort going.
“The problem with this is it is temporary. You do a little march out to your reef, then you are back home again a day or two later,” the naval officer said. “How do you sustain?”
The 40 vessels are expected to be at sea for just three days, indicating China could simply ignore the convoy.
China’s vast, world-ranging fishing fleet maintains a rotating year-round presence at sea.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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