Ukraine’s prospects for victory over Russia hinge on the outcome of a bitter partisan battle playing out this week on Capitol Hill, top Ukrainian and U.S. officials said Tuesday, as Kyiv and the Biden administration mounted a full-court press to persuade skeptical Republicans to back another round of aid for Ukraine before it’s too late.
A top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Washington to urge lawmakers to support the administration’s $106 billion aid package, which includes $61.4 billion for Ukraine.
Ahead of a possible vote Wednesday, the fate of that plan appears grim as Senate Republicans insist on securing the southern border.
The bill faces an even steeper climb in the House, where Republican leaders have said for weeks that they will demand a more secure U.S.-Mexico border.
The scrambled situation and frenetic pace of lobbying for a spending package were on full display when Mr. Zelenskyy scheduled and then abruptly canceled a virtual session with senators to make one last plea for the aid.
House Republicans haven’t budged from their position since President Biden introduced the $106 billion spending plan more than a month ago. The package also includes more than $14 billion for Israel.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, Louisiana Republican, reiterated in a letter to White House officials that his caucus believes it has a “duty” to demand a full, detailed explanation of how the administration expects Ukraine to eventually achieve a decisive victory over Russia.
Finding a clear road map to a Ukrainian victory has proved elusive throughout the war, especially given Russia’s historic willingness to withstand heavy human losses rather than admit defeat.
Mr. Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, told an audience in Washington that his country faces a “big risk to lose this war” without more American support.
Administration officials said the U.S. will run out of money for Ukraine by the end of the month unless Congress signs off on more funding. The trajectory of the conflict could shift rapidly in Russia’s favor if the U.S. turns off the spigot.
“We are at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to our ability to provide security assistance to Ukraine,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters.
Tools of war
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with $111 billion in aid. Much of that money has gone directly to Ukraine’s battlefield capabilities, including a Patriot missile defense battery, more than 2,000 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 21 air surveillance radars, more than 7,000 precision-guided 155 mm artillery rounds, more than 400,000 mortar rounds, more than 40,000 122 mm artillery rounds, hundreds of mortar systems, more than 30,000 155 mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine Systems, more than 10,000 Javelin anti-armor systems, more than 100,000 sets of body armor and helmets, nearly 200 155 mm Howitzers and a whopping 2 million 155 mm artillery rounds, 20 Avenger air defense systems, and a host of other ammunition and equipment, according to a State Department fact sheet.
Ukraine and Russia have been locked in a virtual stalemate for most of the year, but aid from Ukraine’s American and European allies has helped Kyiv prevent any further Russian advance. It has also enabled Kyiv to launch counteroffensive operations that have made small, incremental gains in the eastern part of the country.
Some critics of continued U.S. aid argue that European nations can and should step up to fill any financial gap. Senior British and Dutch officials said Tuesday that they would continue to support Ukraine militarily and economically in the coming year at least at the same levels as in 2023.
Some lawmakers say the contribution of the U.S., the dominant military power in NATO, is irreplaceable.
“Europe can certainly do more, but there’s absolutely no way for Ukraine to survive the winter and spring without a significant infusion of money from the United States Congress. That’s an important conversation, but it’s irrelevant if we abandon Ukraine in the next two weeks,” said Sen. Christopher Murphy, Connecticut Democrat.
The White House increased its rhetoric as the headwinds intensified against the Ukraine funding package.
“We are out of money – and nearly out of time,” Shalanda D. Young, director of the Office of Management and Budget, said in a letter to lawmakers Monday.
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters at the White House, “Congress has to decide whether to continue to support the fight for freedom in Ukraine … or whether Congress will ignore the lessons we’ve learned from history and let [Russian President Vladimir] Putin prevail.”
Money well spent?
Analysts say the Western aid has directly damaged Mr. Putin’s war machine. British intelligence officials estimated this week that at least 50,000 Russian troops and 20,000 mercenary fighters had been killed since the war began. Russia has lost more than 11,000 pieces of military equipment, according to an analysis earlier this year by the military blog Oryx.
Mr. Putin, who banked on a short, easy conquest of Ukraine when he authorized the invasion in February 2022, is now in a grinding war of attrition. Russia and its separatist allies in Ukraine occupy about a fifth of the country in Ukraine’s south and east.
The war has been a drain on Russia’s treasury, a setback for its commercial sector and a geopolitical reverse. Finland and Sweden are joining the NATO alliance in direct response to Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine.
Throughout the war, the Pentagon has said it wants Mr. Putin’s military damaged to the point that it could not launch another unprovoked invasion. Analysts say U.S. aid is helping accomplish that tangible objective.
“The United States spent trillions of dollars on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, with very little to show by way of positive developments in either campaign,” Michael John Williams, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote in a recent analysis. “In stark contrast, Kyiv has judiciously utilized U.S. and international assistance to significantly weaken what the U.S. Department of Defense calls a ‘near-peer competitor.’
“While fiscal responsibility is commendable, the failure to provide Kyiv with an additional $61.4 billion to uphold the liberal world order and significantly degrade the Russian military is a short-sighted decision with far-reaching consequences for national security,” he wrote.
Growing numbers of congressional Republicans have balked at what they say is the Biden administration’s “blank check” for Ukraine, given U.S. spending needs at home and questions of whether Kyiv is using assistance honestly and efficiently.
Oleksandr Klymenko, the head of the Ukrainian government’s anti-corruption prosecutor’s office, told the Agence France-Presse news service Tuesday that his office has “several proceedings” related to alleged arms procurement corruption. Three months ago, Mr. Zelenskyy abruptly replaced his defense minister amid reports of possible corruption in the military services and defense industry.
Ukrainian forces, who began the year with high hopes of a planned counteroffensive to drive back Russian forces along a nearly 600-mile front, have made only minor gains this year. They are reportedly rationing artillery shells and other equipment to preserve inventory against dug-in Russian defensive lines.
The shipment this year of German-made Leopard tanks was hailed as a key to the coming offensive. Ukrainian troops are now using the tanks as a defense to prevent Russian advances, the Agence France-Presse report noted.
In addition to the $61.4 billion for Ukraine, the White House’s funding proposal would provide $14.3 billion for Israel, $7.4 billion to defend Taiwan and for other U.S. military priorities in the Pacific, $14 billion in southern border security funding, and more than $9 billion in humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.
Republican resistance
Despite the growing warnings, Mr. Johnson and other House Republicans have shown little sign of backing down. Mr. Johnson sent a letter to the White House on Tuesday and reiterated that his caucus wants “transformative change” at the U.S.-Mexico border as part of any funding package.
He also expressed deep concern about the definition of victory for Ukraine. Critics say the definition is as murky today as it was when the war began nearly two years ago.
“I reiterate that President Biden must satisfy congressional oversight inquiries about the administration’s failure thus far to present clearly defined objectives. … American taxpayers deserve a full accounting of how prior U.S. military and humanitarian aid has been spent, and an explanation of the president’s strategy to ensure an accelerated path to victory,” he wrote. “In light of the current state of the U.S. economy and the massive amount of our national debt, it is our duty in Congress to demand answers to these reasonable questions, and we still await the answers.”
Several Senate Republicans said they remained unswayed after a private briefing Tuesday on the need to approve more aid to Ukraine.
The typically mild-mannered Sen. Kevin Cramer, North Dakota Republican, harshly condemned the administration’s approach.
“[Democrats] don’t give a damn about our southern border. They don’t give a damn about Ukraine. They have all the hostages they’re willing to kill to make another point,” Mr. Kramer said. “It’s infuriating. [President Biden] is going to kill this bill by his unwillingness to deal with the southern border.”
• Ramsey Touchberry can be reached at rtouchberry@washingtontimes.com.
• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.
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