Doha, QATAR — Whatever the outcome of the Israel-Hamas war, this tiny peninsula of a nation jutting into the Persian Gulf has cemented itself as the critical Arab state articulating a vision for a Palestinian future.
The oil- and natural-gas-rich country made a massive investment in the Palestinian enclave in Gaza before Oct. 7. It is playing an indispensable role in hostage talks between Israel and Hamas, has financed much of the civilian infrastructure in Gaza, and hosts the media megaphone of the Al Jazeera network broadcasting in Arabic and English. The result: Qatar will almost certainly have an outsized say in the new order — or chaos — in the Middle East.
Qatar’s global profile is remarkable, given the isolation and hostility close to home. Doha survived a four-year crisis with three Gulf neighbors that blockaded the emirate over what they called its support for terrorism — meaning the transnational Muslim Brotherhood organization that includes Hamas.
Ever since Hamas came to power in Gaza, Qatari officials realized that working with Hamas would be a valuable chance to enhance their standing in the Arab world as supporters of the Palestinian cause, even if that support jeopardized ties with long-established governments. Israel, the U.S. and many other governments consider the Palestinian militant movement a terrorist organization.
Qatar’s Middle East stance contrasted with that of Saudi Arabia, which distanced itself from the 75-year-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, which viewed normalization with Israel as a matter of self-interest. Until Oct. 7, widespread speculation indicated that Arab governments were ready to jettison their support for the cause of Palestinian statehood in exchange for better ties with Israel and the United States.
That suggests Qatar’s role in the crisis could have much more far-reaching and long-lasting effects. Even if Hamas suffers defeat in its war with Israel, Qatar’s emphasis on Palestinian elections and statehood aims to advance “Islamist democracy,” first demonstrated during the Arab Spring when it backed the Muslim Brotherhood candidate for the Egyptian presidency, Mohamed Morsi, and Syrian rebel groups.
“Once de-escalation is achieved, we can focus on more long-term solutions to the crisis,” Majed al-Ansari, a spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said as hostage negotiations were underway. “But both Gaza and the West Bank must be one state under leadership chosen by the Palestinian people, and the only way to prevent a repeat of the war is to provide the Palestinians with a horizon for establishing a state. And who rules the Palestinians is the Palestinians’ choice.”
Mahmoud Abbas, head of the rival West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, emerged victorious in the January 2005 presidential election. He secured 62% of the votes for his secular nationalist Fatah party. Hamas did not participate in the election.
In the subsequent legislative elections a year later, Hamas won 44% of the votes and secured 74 seats, leading to a violent power struggle. As a result, Hamas took control of Gaza, which is significantly smaller, poorer and more crowded than the West Bank. Israel imposed a blockade of the territory ruled by a group with ties to Iran that has never recognized Israel’s right to exist as a nation.
“It has been 16 years since the Palestinian people were allowed to choose their representatives,” said Dania Koleilat Khatib, the Dubai-based head of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building. “It’s unclear whether Hamas or the PA truly represents them. In the past, there have been protests against Hamas in Gaza. Qatar is advocating for elections to be held to let the Palestinians decide who will govern them instead of leaving the decision to Israel.”
A poll by the Arab World for Research and Development found that 62% of Palestinians in the West Bank have a “very positive” view of Hamas and 68% “strongly supported” the Oct. 7 attacks, which Hamas’ armed wing called the “Al Aqsa Flood” operation.
A state of war in Gaza makes polling there impossible.
Domestic pressure
In the days leading up to the Oct. 7 attack, Jewish pilgrims, many associated with radical elements of Israel’s West Bank settler movement, increased visits to the Temple Mount-Al Aqsa complex for the Sukkot festival. Muhammad Hamadeh, the Hamas spokesperson for Jerusalem, warned that “aggression against Al-Aqsa Mosque will not pass normally, and Palestinian anger will have a say.”
Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, condemned “all forms of attacks targeting civilians” amid widespread anger. Qatar views the issue of Jerusalem as a matter of political and religious rights for Palestinians.
“When Muslims see that the settlers plan to replace Al-Aqsa with a new temple, they are deeply disturbed and provoked,” said Louay Safi, a professor of politics and Islamic thought at Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Doha. “The settlers, led by [Israeli National Security Minister Itamar] Ben-Gvir, have been constantly intruding on Al-Aqsa and intimidating the Muslim worshippers. The last video I saw documented an attack by Israeli police against Palestinian worshippers at Al-Aqsa Mosque.
“I know not all Israelis agree with that,” he added. “But these are now the people who are calling the shots and creating an unbearable environment in Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza. That is why there is a backlash and anger within the Muslim population, especially when Israel is supported by the United States, the most powerful nation on earth.”
Sheikh Tamim has repeatedly indicated that he sees a future with Al-Aqsa under complete Muslim control as part of a two-state solution, with east Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state. Since the Israeli-Hamas war erupted, even his former rival Saudi Arabia has put its diplomatic outreach to Israel on ice and restated its commitment to that vision.
“What is needed is a credible peace and a peace that lasts and that allows the Palestinians and the Israelis to live side by side in two states. Anything else will result in a continuing crisis in the region,” Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said at a Nov. 29 press conference at United Nations headquarters in New York.
Opportunities and risks
Qatar’s embrace of Hamas and its willingness to host many of its top political figures in Doha come at a cost.
On Friday, Joshua Zarka, deputy director general for strategic affairs at the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem, told Israeli Army Radio that the Jewish state “will settle scores with Qatar, who played its role in everything that is connected to the strengthening of Hamas and its legitimization. We need them for the matter of the return of the abductees, but once this process is over, we will come to them for answers.
“We will prosecute everyone who was on Hamas’ side and everyone who stands on its side now,” Mr. Zarka added.
Although the connection between Qatar and Hamas angers the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Doha continues to offer significant assets and resources to ease some of Israel’s problems, including some potential headaches after the war concludes.
An Israeli analyst warns that going after Qatar could have costs.
“No other country has the same drive as Qatar to be deeply involved in Gaza and to fill the vacuum created if Israel does indeed topple Hamas, and Qatar will undoubtedly aspire to maintain its influence over postwar Gaza, even if Hamas is no longer the central power,” said Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
The Biden administration “is reportedly finding it hard to convince other countries like Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to be part of the reconstruction of Gaza because of Israeli ambiguity about plans for the Strip and its opposition to the proposal that the Palestinian Authority resume control,” Mr. Guzansky said.
Omani political scientist Abdullah Baabood sees Sheikh Tamim, 43, as ready and capable of building on his outsized role on the Middle Eastern and world stages.
“Tamim is a young, highly educated individual trying to build a modern state where people can live in peace and prosperity. He was tested during the Gulf crisis and prevailed against influential leaders and powerful countries, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia,” said Mr. Baabood, who spoke to The Washington Times in a telephone interview from Oman’s capital, Muscat.
“At the same time, he is using soft power to position Qatar as an important regional player,” he added.
Sheikh Tamim “has been supportive of the United States’ position in Ukraine and played an instrumental role in releasing prisoners from Iran, helping the Americans with Afghanistan and resolving other conflicts. It’s unlikely that the Israel-Hamas war will end or real peace will be achieved without the emir’s and Qatar’s help.”
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