The fourth GOP primary debate on Wednesday is shaping up as a four-candidate affair, at best, as actual voting looms several weeks away and low-polling candidates accept reality to bow out of the race.
Former President Donald Trump, the front-runner by a wide margin, is not expected to take the stage at the debate hosted by NewsNation at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
That leaves Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and, possibly, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie as the combatants before the Republican National Committee confirms the field early this week.
The debate will be held in the Frank Moody Music Building and moderated by Megyn Kelly, Elizabeth Vargas of NewsNation and Eliana Johnson, the editor-in-chief of the Washington Free Beacon.
A four-person debate would be a smaller group than the third GOP debate in Miami, which also featured Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina. Mr. Scott dropped out in mid-November, saying voters were telling him, “’Not now, Tim.”
In another winnowing, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum on Monday said he is suspending his campaign after failing to gain traction in polls and qualify for recent debates. He blamed “clubhouse” Republican National Committee criteria that put national attitudes ahead of the “engaged” voters in places like Iowa and New Hampshire.
To qualify for Wednesday’s showdown, candidates need 80,000 donors and 6% support in two national polls, or that level of support in a national poll and a poll from an early primary state. Mr. Christie said he’s confident he will make the cut.
Mr. Burgum’s departure is another sign that candidates face tough decisions ahead of the first-in-nation Iowa caucus in January.
Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, another low-polling candidate, remains in the race but will face pressure to depart or limp along. Better-polling candidates are seeing shakeups, too.
Three senior members of the super PAC backing Mr. DeSantis opted to depart over the weekend, The Associated Press reported. The group, Never Back Down, told the wire service it still has “the most organized, advanced caucus operation of anyone in the 2024 primary field.”
Among the quartet that is set to appear in Alabama, Mr. Christie has traction in New Hampshire but he will face some pressure to examine his prospects as he remains stuck in low-single-digits.
He is struggling to get 3% in FiveThirtyEight’s average of available polls, compared to about 5% for Mr. Ramaswamy, 10% for Mrs. Haley and 13% for Mr. DeSantis.
Mr. Trump dominates the field in the polling average, at roughly 58%.
• Tom Howell Jr. can be reached at thowell@washingtontimes.com.
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