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Attracting a few good men — and women — won’t cut it for the nation’s armed services.
The Pentagon is scrambling to fill a growing chasm in the recruitment ranks that will result in the smallest U.S. military since before World War II.
The situation was dire in 2023, and senior military officials say they are “cautiously optimistic” at best about 2024.
“I’m going to say we’re optimistic,” said Air Force Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, Pentagon spokesman. “But, you know, we know that this continues to be a challenge for a multitude of reasons.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “has said we didn’t get into this problem overnight and it’s not going to be solved overnight,” Gen. Ryder said. It put more of an onus on the military branches to be “very active and creative in looking at how we can communicate with the public that we serve.”
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The Defense Department said only the Marine Corps and the Space Force — by far the smallest of the U.S. military services — met their recruiting goals in the past fiscal year. Surveys find that just 23% of Americans ages 17 to 24 even qualify to join the military. The majority have weight issues, past drug use, or mental or physical health problems. Few have expressed a genuine enthusiasm to serve.
Under the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act that President Biden signed on Dec. 21, the number of active-duty military troops will shrink to just over 1.2 million. It’s anyone’s guess whether the Defense Department will find enough military recruits next year to fill even those more modest targets.
“There is strong bipartisan concern that the military services continue to struggle to meet their recruiting goals,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Democrat, told senior recruiting chiefs from the various military branches at a Dec. 6 hearing of the Senate Armed Services personnel subcommittee.
It’s certainly not a matter of money. The 2024 NDAA authorizes some $886.3 billion for national defense, an increase of $28 billion over 2023 levels.
Even with plenty of money and “bipartisan concern” from lawmakers on Capitol Hill, the Army, Navy and Air Force failed to accomplish their recruiting missions in the fiscal year that ended in September. One big challenge is hitting the target numbers without diluting the qualification standards to wear the uniform.
“I’m mindful of how challenging an environment this is and want to publicly give credit to our professional recruiters and all our Marines who uphold our rigorous stands 24/7,” Gen. Eric M. Smith, the Marine Corps commandant, said on social media after the numbers were released.
Even so, the services have stepped up some tried-and-true methods for attracting recruits, including the Navy’s financial incentive package worth a record-high $140,000. Policies on tattoos and facial hair have been relaxed for some services, and the Army resurrected its “Be All You Can Be” marketing campaign from 40 years ago, hoping to reach a Generation Z demographic.
The Pentagon told the House Armed Services Committee in December that the services fell more than 40,000 recruits short of their annual goal. It was the largest gap since the end of the draft more than 50 years ago.
The thinning goes beyond active-duty ranks. The Air Force Reserve attracted just 5,288 of the 7,765 newly enlisted airmen it needed, Military.com reported, some 30% below the goal.
A relatively strong economy and low unemployment figures mean young adults have more options to consider, Ashish Vazirani, the Defense Department’s acting undersecretary for personnel and readiness, told House lawmakers.
“And the impact of the [COVID-19] pandemic on our recruiting model — which relies heavily on in-person recruiter access to high schools — and communication engagement was significant,” Mr. Vazirani said.
He pointed out that more than 75% of American youths do not qualify for military service without some form of waiver. More than 1 in 10 don’t make the grade because they are overweight.
“While these factors explain part of our deficit in recruiting, they do not explain all of it,” Mr. Vazirani said. “We believe that our recruiting challenge is more profound, more structural and longer-term than any of us would like.”
Reputational hits
The American public generally holds the armed forces in high esteem compared with other major institutions. Still, the admiration is wavering, partly because of the chaotic ending to the failed war in Afghanistan, increased polarization of the public and concerns about heightened politicization in the military, according to a recent study by the Rand Corp. think tank.
More than 50% of Americans say they would discourage a young person close to them from enlisting in the military, but more than 60% said they would support a young person’s decision to become an officer by attending a service academy or signing up for ROTC in college, the Rand researchers found.
Some Republican lawmakers blamed the Pentagon’s anemic recruiting numbers on what they say is the Biden administration’s politicization of the Pentagon, in particular, a misplaced focus on divisive identity politics within the ranks.
“The Department of Defense must put at least as much effort into solving the recruiting crisis as it has into other initiatives like extremism, diversity, equity, inclusion, and abortion,” said Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee. “At worst, they dissuade young people from enlisting. They suggest to the American people that the military has a problem with diversity and extremism.”
Service members and military veterans on the Reddit news and discussion site said reasons for low recruitment include poor living conditions in the barracks and toxic unit-level leadership.
“The military can’t hide behind its censorship anymore. Sweeping the bad stuff under the rug and reeling in unsuspecting 17- and 18-year-olds isn’t as feasible now as it was before social media and the internet,” a Reddit poster said.
Another commentator said unskilled laborers in the private sector are offered higher wages and better benefits packages than those in the military. “There’s a huge shortage of guys in the trades right now, and companies are shelling out to get workers,” he said. “It’s better than getting yelled at in the middle of Oklahoma.”
Long-term problem
Maj. Gen. Johnny K. Davis, head of Army Recruiting Command, said the recruiting crisis didn’t appear overnight and won’t be resolved quickly.
“We will not lower standards. We will not sacrifice quality for the sake of quantity,” Gen. Davis said.
Some Army recruiting initiatives are showing promise, Gen. Davis said. That includes the Future Soldier Preparatory Course, which helps potential recruits meet the physical fitness and academic standards required to begin basic training. He said 14,000 people have graduated from the course and 95% have gone on to finish boot camp and become soldiers.
“We’re seeing momentum, and we’ll continue to build upon it,” Gen. Davis said.
The military isn’t the only institution at cross purposes with young Americans. Undergraduate college enrollment declined by 15% from 2010 to 2021, mostly before COVID-19, and national service programs such as the Peace Corps have not recovered to pre-pandemic staffing levels, Mr. Vazirani said.
“While the military is not alone in navigating these difficult trends, we have some unique considerations,” he said. “In 1995, 40% of U.S. youth ages 16 to 24 had a parent who served in the military. But by 2022, only 12% had a parent who served, and that has led to a disconnect between the military and a large share of society.”
Rear Adm. Alexis T. Walker, the Navy’s top recruiter, expects another challenging environment in 2024. The Navy is placing more recruiters in the field and has borrowed an idea from the Army by instituting a Future Sailor Preparatory Course at its Recruit Training Command near Chicago.
The Navy is also launching a marketing campaign to target adult influencers in the lives of young people.
“Today, our advertising remains near 100% digital, resulting in a 30% increase in national leads in taking the message to where our future sailors are operating, which is online,” Adm. Walker said.
Gen. Ryder, the Defense Department spokesman, said recruiters can conduct face-to-face negotiations with their target audience now that COVID-19 restrictions have been lifted.
“The services continue to be very active and creative in looking at how we can communicate with the public that we serve,” Gen. Ryder said. “We didn’t get into this problem overnight, and it’s not going to be solved overnight.”
• Mike Glenn can be reached at mglenn@washingtontimes.com.
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