OPINION:
America navigates a perilous world that challenges what should be the central goals of American defense and foreign policy — the continued prosperity and safety of our citizens at home and fostering democratic values so that Americans, our assets and allies may move in the world with greater security.
Failure to eject Russia from Ukraine, secure Israel, end Iranian-sponsored terrorism across the Middle East and face down Chinese saber rattling in the Pacific degrades all these goals.
Across these theaters, our foes have combined resources to challenge the strength and sophistication of the U.S. military. Engagement and diplomacy have failed terribly, or we would not have our hands full with Russia invading Eastern Europe, a war in Gaza, and China harassing the Philippines and Taiwan — daring the U.S. Navy to respond.
China may not have advanced to technological parity — it still needs Western technology to mass-produce the most advanced computer chips — but adjusting for the depressed value of its currency, its economy is as large as ours. It’s building naval ships much more rapidly than we are capable of doing.
It’s fashionable to question whether the Chinese military is ready to fight a hot war, but it’s a terrible risk to assume it can’t.
We face this problem because China is getting richer quicker. This year, its gross domestic product grew 5.4%, while our economy grew 2.4%. This disparity is greatly assisted by the huge trade surplus China enjoys with the United States and growing exports to countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
We should adopt a much more aggressive posture to balance that trade with tariffs and accelerate the relocation of production to Asia and Mexico by joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Neither former President Donald Trump nor President Biden has demonstrated the stomach to confront China with bold action, and they wrongly see free trade agreements as the work of the devil.
Palestinians, Arab Israelis and other non-Jews living in Israel and its environs outnumber Jews, and a democratic Jewish state is impossible without creating a separate Palestinian state.
The focus on an international administration for Gaza sets up Israeli and American forces elsewhere in the Middle East for continued Iranian-backed terrorist attacks by Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, etc.
It’s painless for Tehran to produce weapons for Russia and fund terrorists as long as Israeli and U.S. forces are limited to retaliation against terrorist attacks.
Negotiation with Tehran and naive gestures of good faith by relaxing sanctions are of no value. Washington should issue a demarche: The United States will regard any attack by any Iran-sponsored terrorist as an attack by Tehran and blockade its ports, seize its oil on the high seas and attack its military ships, planes and domestic infrastructure without limit or remorse.
Tehran doesn’t need electricity, sewage or clean water any more than Kyiv does.
In Ukraine, Russia has proved that sanctions alone don’t work. Its economy may not be thriving, but it is functioning well enough to support a war for years through trade with China, India and others.
We should organize a Black Sea NATO naval convoy for Ukrainian grain and give the Ukrainians air and other resources they need to destroy Russian defensive positions and logistics. If Vladimir Putin wants a wider war, we can sink his navy and seize his oil at sea.
We should not want conflict with either Iran or Russia, but we should not permit Moscow and Tehran their mischief without risking it. It is doubtful that either wants a direct conflict.
China has numerous ways of taking Taiwan without much risk. It could occupy one of the smaller islands and ask for an international conference on the future of Taiwan, mount an attack on Kinmen and Matsu, impose a naval blockade or wear down the islands through military intimidation.
All of those would expose the challenges the U.S. military faces with more distant bases to respond.
The alternative is to be clear, privately as necessary, that an attack on Taiwan is not only something we will risk repelling but also that further Chinese harassment in the Taiwan Strait and shows of force in the South Pacific will be met by draconian economic actions. An attack on one square inch of Taiwanese territory will be matched by a naval and air war far beyond Taiwan featuring U.S. attack submarines and Chinese targets more accessible to the U.S. Air Force and Navy.
All of this requires reshaping U.S. forces — spending more money, spending it better, and finding resources by cutting spending elsewhere and through taxes.
All of this is distasteful, but the alternative is for American forces to become increasingly tied down, preparing for what may be an unwinnable and costly war over Taiwan and drained by supporting endless conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Unfortunately, Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden have not articulated an understanding of these imperatives.
• Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.