Dozens of House retirements complicate Democrats’ bid to reclaim majority

Nearly twice as many House Democrats than Republicans are retiring next year when the GOP will battle to hold and expand its slim majority.

Among the 36 lawmakers who opted not to seek reelection, 23 are Democrats and 13 are Republicans. And the retirements put key seats up for grabs in 2024.

House Republicans’ razor-thin majority makes every race crucial with any seats flipping to Democrats threatening the GOP’s grip on power.

But there are 10 relatively competitive districts held by Democrats who are retiring. Their districts range from likely Democratic to toss-up, giving Republicans chances to score majority-expanding wins. Five of these districts skew favorably toward the GOP in the recent redistricting.

Reps. Dan Kildee and Elissa Slotkin, both Michigan Democrats, are ditching their seats after redistricting in 2022 led to slim margins of victory for the lawmakers. Mr. Kildee is leaving after recovering from cancer earlier this year, while Ms. Slotkin is mounting a bid for the seat of outgoing Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Michigan Democrat.

Meanwhile, a trio of Democratic seats in North Carolina that were redrawn by the state’s GOP-controlled legislature similarly shifted the district lines to favor Republicans.

The change forced out Reps. Kathy Manning, Wiley Nickel and Jeff Jackson, who argued that pro-GOP gerrymandering morphed their districts won by President Biden in 2020 to favor former President Donald Trump, the presumptive favorite for the GOP nomination, in the upcoming election.

“I won’t file for reelection in the egregiously gerrymandered Congressional districts,” Ms. Manning wrote on X.

While Ms. Manning and Mr. Nickel are retiring, Mr. Jackson has opted to run for North Carolina attorney general, putting him on a collision course with retiring GOP Rep. Dan Bishop who also threw his hat into the AG race.

Lawmakers are citing a variety of reasons for leaving. Many acknowledge frustrations with the rancor and toxicity in the lower chamber, where work ground to a halt on must-pass spending bills.

Rep. Debbie Lesko, an Arizona Republican who has served in Congress since 2018, said in her retirement announcement that “Washington D.C. is broken” and it was hard to get anything done.

“I’ve always been a little impatient, and that trait has helped us deliver remarkable progress for this community,” said retiring 18-year veteran lawmaker Rep. Brian Higgins, New York Democrat. “But the pace in Washington, D.C., can be slow and frustrating, especially this year.”

Rep. Dusty Johnson, South Dakota Republican, said such frustrations are not out of the ordinary.

“Isn’t that the case in every workplace in the history of humanity? Like when somebody leaves their law office to go someplace else, there is usually some sense of frustration as a part of that,” Mr. Johnson said. “Perfectly happy people don’t look for new opportunities.”

About a dozen House lawmakers are ditching their seats for a Senate bid, while a handful of others are seeking statewide offices. And Rep. Dean Phillips, Minnesota Democrat, is mounting a longshot bid for the White House against President Biden, the leader of his party.

A new year and encroaching filing deadlines mean that even more lawmakers will likely call an end to their legislative careers in the House, or vie for a different public office.

Rep. Matt Rosendale, who announced this month that he is “heavily considering” a bid against longtime Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, was coy on his future. Mr. Rosendale told The Washington Times that he couldn’t reveal more about his plans, but that he intended to have discussions with his family over the holidays about his next move.

There are also more immediate departures hitting the House. Rep. Kevin McCarthy had his last day in Congress last week, opting to leave before the end of his term after being ousted as speaker in October. Mr. McCarthy’s time in Washington will come to a close at the end of the year.

Rep. Bill Johnson, Ohio Republican, is slated to leave for a leadership position at a university, while Mr. Higgins is leaving public office to head an arts center. Both will leave Congress early next year.

Their seats will be filled before the upcoming election cycle, but their districts are deep red and blue, meaning a flip of their seats is unlikely.

Then there is the toss-up New York seat left vacant by the expulsion of George Santos from the House. Mr. Santos, a Republican, flipped the seat after former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi launched an unsuccessful bid for governor.

Mr. Suozzi, a favorite to retake the seat, is set to face Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip, a local legislator, in the district’s special election in February.