President Biden will travel to Milwaukee on Wednesday, where he will make his final pitch of the year to Black voters, a once normally reliable Democratic voting bloc that has become largely skeptical of Mr. Biden’s push for a second term.
Mr. Biden will deliver remarks at the Wisconsin Black Chamber of Commerce, making the case that his economic agenda has led to a boom for Black-owned businesses and Black Americans in general.
He will argue that under his leadership, new business applications by Blacks have grown at their fastest pace in three years and legislation such as his massive COVID-19 relief bill and the infrastructure bill have created an economic boom for the Black community.
The visit — Mr. Biden’s final campaign stop of the year — follows recent polling showing Black voter enthusiasm for the president and his policies has dimmed.
Black voters could be critical in a swing state like Wisconsin, where they make up the majority of Democratic voters in the state’s largest cities, Milwaukee and Madison.
Mr. Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by about 20,000 votes, edging out former President Trump, who is the front-runner for the Republican nomination in 2024. The Black population of Milwaukee alone is roughly 230,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
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Overall voter turnout in Milwaukee County was flat in 2020 compared to 2016 and 2012, but turnout in Black-majority wards declined from 2016. Strategists in the state blamed the low turnout on a new voter ID law that sowed confusion among Black voters and other issues related to the pandemic.
Wisconsin is a must-win state for presidential candidates in 2024. The latest Marquette Law poll shows Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by 2 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, 50% to 48%.
“Joe Biden is in Wisconsin today for one reason — he’s in trouble,” said Wisconsin GOP Chairman Brian Schimming during a conference call with reporters. “Not only in this state, but in every swing state across the country. Voters say the number one issue is the economy, and voters are overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the economy.”
Recent polls show Mr. Biden’s support among Black voters is shrinking. Some are threatening to withhold their support in 2024, while others are drifting toward Mr. Trump.
The lack of enthusiasm among Black voters could prove fatal to Mr. Biden’s reelection chances. They formed the core of Mr. Biden‘s base in 2020, and a dip in just one or two battleground states, such as Georgia or Michigan, would likely determine the election outcome.
An EPIC-MRA poll released last month found that only 62% of Black respondents would support Mr. Biden for a second term. Of those who didn’t support the president, 17% said they would vote for Mr. Trump and 17% were undecided.
A poll by The New York Times/Siena College revealed that 22% of Black voters in six battleground states would support Mr. Trump and 71% would back Mr. Biden in a theoretical rematch.
Those numbers don’t seem significant at first blush, but they show that Mr. Biden’s support in Black communities is waning. Mr. Biden captured 92% of the Black vote in 2020, compared with 8% who turned out for Mr. Trump, according to Pew Research.
Just days after Mr. Biden won the 2020 election, he acknowledged the debt he owed the Black community for his victory, thanking them for “having his back” and vowing to always have theirs.
A Republican presidential candidate hasn’t won more than 12% of the Black vote since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956.
Mr. Biden has moved to shore up support among minority voters. Before his Thanksgiving break, he recorded three interviews with Black and Hispanic radio shows, including “Get Up! Mornings” with Erica Campbell and “The Rickey Smiley Morning Show.” In the interviews, Mr. Biden discussed how his economic agenda has benefited Black and Hispanic communities.
Black community leaders cite no single reason for the erosion of support for Mr. Biden, but many are quick to point to soaring grocery, gasoline and housing prices. Black families were hit particularly hard when inflation reached a 40-year high last year because they trailed White Americans in income, wealth, financial savings and homeownership.
“You have a cumulative 17% inflation rate during this president’s administration, so this is pounding everyone in society, and some could argue it’s certainly hurting some folks worse than others,” Mr. Schimming said.
Wage gains have cooled more dramatically for Black workers than other Americans. The median weekly earnings for full-time employed Blacks when Mr. Biden took office in January 2021 was $304. It was $299 in the third quarter of this year, according to Labor Department statistics. For all other communities, it was $365 per week.
The unemployment rate for Black workers fell to a record low 4.7% in April but rose to 5.8% in October. That outpaced the increase for American workers overall.
White House officials point to several actions Mr. Biden has spearheaded to keep his promise to the Black community.
The tax and climate law, dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act, commits at least 40% of certain federal investments to Black and underserved communities. The White House also said households can save as much as 30% with tax credits for environmentally friendly home renovations. Those tax credits apply to everyone, not just the Black community.
The COVID-19 relief, known as the American Rescue Plan, included provisions to expand the child tax credit. The administration says the credit has helped lower poverty rates for Black children and provided $39 billion to help child care providers stay open during a period of economic chaos. One in 5 child care providers is Black, according to data from the administration.
The president’s infrastructure bill also includes provisions aimed at repairing Black neighborhoods that are separated from larger communities by highways, thus limiting their connections to economic opportunities.
Mr. Biden has set a goal of increasing the share of federal contracting funds to minority-owned businesses to 50% by 2025, up from its current level of 10%.
• Jeff Mordock can be reached at jmordock@washingtontimes.com.
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