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Russia doesn’t appear to be throwing in the towel in Ukraine and is hiking its military budget to bring the war to a close.
Military spending will rise sharply in 2024 under a new budget signed into law last month by President Vladimir Putin. The measure suggests that Moscow is committed to continuing its two-year-old war against its smaller neighbor, according to an analysis by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The just-released SIPRI report estimates that Russia’s 2024 military budget — $140 billion — will be 29% higher than the year before. It means the Kremlin will earmark 35% of all government expenditures to military and war-related spending.
“With planned reductions in military spending in 2025-26 after a sharp increase in 2024, and with the Russian presidential election due in 2024, Putin appears to be showing his intent to bring the war to a successful conclusion within the year,” SIPRI Director Dan Smith said Wednesday.
The fighting in Ukraine appears to be at a stalemate, with little prospect of a military breakthrough for either side, Mr. Smith said.
“While Putin may be counting on the West’s support for the war fragmenting, the West is counting on the war bankrupting Putin’s regime,” he said. “Neither assumption is a sure thing, [but] neither is impossible.”
Wednesday’s SIPRI report comes the day after Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy visited Washington for meetings at the White House and Congress for more money. U.S. officials have warned that military funding for Ukraine is on the verge of running out. Some Republicans in Congress have linked further support for Ukraine to a plan to increase security at the U.S.-Mexico border.
The Kremlin’s budget plan assumes that government revenues will increase by at least 22% in 2024. SIPRI researchers called that optimistic because it’s based on sizable revenues from oil, gas and other economic activities that would be vulnerable to tightening international sanctions or a deteriorating global economy.
Russia will likely increase the country’s military budget next year by slashing domestic spending for 2024. As a share of total spending, housing support will drop to 2.2% from 2.8%, with health care costs falling to 4.4% from 5.2%, SIPRI researchers said.
Russian war-related spending is not limited to guns and bombs under the new budget. It includes money for rebuilding war-damaged structures on Russian territory, SIPR analysts said.
• Mike Glenn can be reached at mglenn@washingtontimes.com.
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