OPINION:
With rising spending, taxes, deficits and debt, comparing President Biden and former President Donald Trump fiscally is important. The president’s single terms are similar, with COVID-19 overlapping both. A fiscal review reveals other similarities, too; the big separator, however, is Mr. Biden’s excessive spending.
Presidential reelection races are invariably a referendum on the incumbent’s record. So, what happens when two presidents are running for reelection? Not since 1892 have two presidents squared off in a rematch for the White House. While there are seemingly countless qualitative comparisons to be made of Mr. Biden’s and Mr. Trump’s records, there is also a quantifiable one: their fiscal performances.
Using Congressional Budget Office data, the two first terms can be compared on four fiscal variables: spending, taxes, deficits and debt. To make these comparable over time, we measure them against the economy as percentages of gross domestic product, thus taking out inflation’s effect — otherwise, Mr. Biden would be counted out before we began counting. For 2024, Mr. Biden’s fourth year, we will use CBO’s latest estimates.
On spending, Mr. Trump’s high was 31.1% of GDP, which occurred in 2020; Mr. Biden’s was 29.7% in 2021. Mr. Trump’s low was 20.2% of GDP, which occurred in 2018; Mr. Biden’s low was 22.7% in 2023.
On taxes, Mr. Trump’s high was 17.2% of GDP, which occurred in 2017; Mr. Biden’s was 19.3% in 2022. Mr. Trump’s low was 16.2%, which occurred in 2020; Mr. Biden’s was 16.5% in 2023.
On deficits, Mr. Trump’s high was 14.7% of GDP, which occurred in 2020; Mr. Biden’s high was 12.1% in 2021. Mr. Trump’s low was 3.5%, which occurred in 2017; Mr. Biden’s low was 5.4% in 2022.
On debt, Mr. Trump’s high was 99.8% of GDP, which occurred in 2020; Mr. Biden’s is 100.4 % in 2024. Mr. Trump’s low was 76.2% in 2017; Biden’s 96.9% in 2022.
With so much fluctuation between their highs and lows, a four-year average for each is useful. Mr. Trump’s average spending was 23.3% of GDP; Mr. Biden’s was 25.2%. Mr. Trump’s average for taxes is 16.6% of GDP; Mr. Biden’s is 17.8%. Mr. Trump’s average for deficits is 6.7% of GDP; Mr. Biden’s is 7.4%. Mr. Trump’s average debt is 83.3% of GDP; Mr. Biden’s is 98.5%.
Each president’s COVID-19 year distorts their four fiscal variables, so dropping 2020 for Mr. Trump (remember, U.S. real GDP fell 2.1% that year, and 5.1% in Q1 and an astounding 31.2% in Q2) and 2021 for Mr. Biden gives a clearer impression of their fiscal performance.
Mr. Trump’s three-year average for spending is 20.6% of GDP; Biden’s is 23.7%. Mr. Trump’s three-year average for taxes is 16.7% of GDP; Mr. Biden’s is 17.9%. Mr. Trump’s three-year average for deficits is 4% of GDP; Mr. Biden’s is 5.8%. Mr. Trump’s three-year debt average is 77.7% of GDP; Mr. Biden’s is 98.5%.
In their four-year averages, Mr. Trump is lower than Mr. Biden across the board on spending, taxes, deficits and debt. When their COVID-19 year is removed, the gap between their averages is even greater.
The driver here is, of course, Mr. Biden’s spending. Over their four years, Mr. Trump’s spending is almost 2 percentage points of GDP lower; minus each COVID-19 year, Mr. Trump’s average is over 3 percentage points of GDP lower. Even with Mr. Biden’s four-year tax average running 1.2 percentage points of GDP higher than Mr. Trump’s, he runs a deficit gap. Mr. Biden’s enormous debt bulge, 15 percentage points of GDP more than Trump’s four-year average, is fueled as a result.
As excessive as Mr. Biden’s spending has been, he wanted to spend more. Remember that he proposed two enormous spending bills early in 2021, pared back and repackaged these as his Build Back Better plan in late 2021, and finally, only after the Senate refused to accept his spending demands, settled for his misnamed Inflation Reduction Act in the summer of 2022 — which still spent hundreds of billions.
There was also his attempt to give away hundreds of billions more in student loan debt forgiveness, which only the Supreme Court blocked.
Fiscal matters are not the only thing that counts in 2024’s rematch; however, it is one thing that we can count. When the call for “four more years” goes up from the White House, Americans should recall these four fiscal variables. And they should ask themselves whether they can afford four more years like the last four.
• J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987 to 2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004 to 2023.
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