‘Game of drones’: Russia-Ukraine battle transforms into drone warfare as both sides amass new tech

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The Russia-Ukraine war has become increasingly shaped by drone warfare, with both sides deploying more unmanned craft and anti-drone platforms using technology sourced from various nations, including the United States, China, Turkey, Israel and Iran.

U.S. officials say Iran supplies Russia, but both sides rely heavily on the domestic production of weaponized and surveillance-oriented drones.

The advanced and multifaceted nature of Ukraine’s fleet was on display this month when explosive-laden kamikaze drone boats, manufactured in Ukraine, inflicted severe damage on a Russian tanker and Russian warship within 24 hours.

Early on Aug. 4, a Ukrainian drone struck Russia’s Black Sea navy base at Novorossiysk off the coast of Russian-occupied Crimea. It was arguably the most devastating naval blow to Russia since the April 2022 sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet that played an integral role in supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The catch, analysts say, is that Ukrainian forces hit the Moskva with Western-provided anti-ship cruise missiles but used domestically produced drone boats in the more recent strikes.

“Not long after the sinking of the Moskva, Ukraine began using naval drones with greater regularity,” the Hudson Institute’s Ukraine Military Situation Report said Wednesday under the title “A Game of Drones in the Russia-Ukraine War.”

Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow at the think tank, wrote in the assessment that Ukrainian forces have introduced “next-generation unmanned surface vehicles with a longer operational range than their predecessors.”

“Their success with these vehicles, including during this week’s strike near Novorossiysk, is prompting broader changes to Ukrainian military policy,” Mr. Kasapoglu wrote. He noted that Ukraine’s defense ministry announced this week that it intends to proceed with attacks on Russian vessels in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

The assessment coincides with a period of uncertainty over the status of a 2-month-old Ukrainian counteroffensive that has made only modest gains against dug-in Russian forces along a 600-mile front line stretching across Ukraine’s east and south. U.S. and NATO officials have publicly defended the counteroffensive.

Pro-Russia military bloggers said Wednesday that Ukrainian units made a significant sortie across the Dnipro River into the Russian-held parts of the key city of Kherson, a first breach in the long-standing divide between the two armies. The unconfirmed accounts said the Ukrainian landing parties were driven back.

Despite the appearance of a stalemate in Ukraine, Russia has accused Ukrainian forces of conducting increasingly frequent cross-border drone operations in the past several months. Kremlin officials have detailed reports of intercepting at least a dozen Ukrainian drone salvos since the middle of July.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Russian forces shot down two Ukrainian drones approaching the Russian capital overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday.

The drones caused no casualties, Mr. Sobyanin said, according to The Associated Press. The mayor said one of the drones came down in a district south of Moscow and the other fell near Minsk highway, west of the city.

A massive explosion rocked an area northeast of the Russian capital on Wednesday, although Russian officials sought to tamp down speculation that yet another enemy drone strike may have caused the blast. Russia’s state news agency Tass reported that the explosion was in the area of the boiler house of the Zagorsk optical-mechanical plant in the Sergiyev district near Moscow.

The explosion created a massive mushroom-shaped plume of smoke and blew out the windows of several houses nearby, according to initial reports.

International news outlets reported that the explosion killed one person and injured more than 50.

Citing an unidentified source, Tass reported that preliminary data showed “the cause of the explosion was not a drone” and was “in the area of the boiler room.” Ukrainian officials said video and local accounts of the explosion contradicted the official accounts.

Tensions next door

Tensions are also rising between Russian ally Belarus, which borders Ukraine to the north, and Poland, a NATO ally immediately to the west.

The Polish government announced Wednesday that it plans to deploy an additional 2,000 troops to its border with Belarus because of fears of illegal migration.

The situation has sparked concern about a return to the chaos that gripped the border two years ago during the lead-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Large numbers of migrants from the Middle East and Africa began arriving at the border from Belarus. Their travel was facilitated by flights and visas provided by the government of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Warsaw described it as a form of “hybrid warfare.”

The fallout from Russia’s war against Ukraine has brought other concerns, including the movement of Russia-linked Wagner Group mercenaries into Belarus this summer after their short-lived mutiny in Russia.

The Lukashenko government said it intends to make the fighters the core of a “contract army” to help upgrade Belarus’ military capabilities.

The Lukashenko government began carrying out military exercises on Monday near its borders with Poland and Lithuania, another NATO member nation.

Lithuania, like Poland, has increased its border security since thousands of Wagner fighters arrived in Belarus under a deal that ended their armed rebellion in late June and allowed them and their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to avoid criminal charges.

Leaders of the two NATO nations said early this month that they are braced for provocations from Moscow and Minsk in a sensitive area where both countries border Belarus and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. Two Belarusian helicopters flew briefly at low altitude into Polish airspace, but Belarusian authorities denied their helicopters entered Poland.

The Biden administration highlighted its distaste for the Lukashenko government Wednesday by leveling economic sanctions against a slate of Belarusian individuals and entities.

A statement by Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the sanctions were timed to mark the anniversary of Mr. Lukashenko’s “fraudulent” reelection three years ago.

Mr. Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994, claimed victory in a widely discredited election in 2020. After the announced result set off massive popular demonstrations and international criticism, the government cracked down on top opposition figures and regime critics.

“Since 2020, the Lukashenko regime has repressed Belarusian citizens, arrested peaceful protesters and community leaders, cracked down on opposition groups and civil society organizations, and subjected those detained to sham trials, all to maintain Lukashenko’s illegitimately acquired authority,” Mr. Blinken said. “The United States will continue to support the people of Belarus in their pursuit of a democratic future in free Belarus where human rights are respected.”

Long known as “Europe’s last dictator,” Mr. Lukashenko refused to leave office in 2020 after an election that most international observers said was won by pro-democracy activist Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Ms. Tsikhanouskaya fled the country shortly after the election and was later sentenced in absentia by the regime to 15 years in prison.

U.S. officials sharply criticized the election and an aggressive Lukashenko government crackdown that jailed thousands who flooded the streets in several Belarusian cities calling for the autocratic leader’s ouster.

Shunned by the West, Mr. Lukashenko has moved closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin and strongly supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In early 2023, Mr. Putin announced that Russia would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. The move was widely seen as a provocation toward Europe.

The State Department said eight individuals and five entities were targeted for sanctions after “enabling Lukashenko’s domestic repression and facilitating Russia’s war against Ukraine.”

Visa restrictions were announced against “101 regime officials and their affiliates for undermining or harming democratic institutions in Belarus, including several judges responsible for issuing politically motivated sentences against Belarusians for exercising their fundamental freedoms.”

The Treasury Department said all property and interests of foreign targets in the United States or in possession or control of people in the U.S. are blocked.

Some U.S. national security analysts say the sanctions are largely symbolic and can be difficult to gauge.

The Biden administration also has relied on sanctions to try to contain Russia’s access to drones from Iran. The Treasury Department has imposed sanctions over the past year on individuals and companies accused of producing or transferring the unmanned weaponized aircraft that Russian forces have used to attack civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

Mr. Kasapoglu’s assessment for the Hudson Institute on Wednesday maintained that “the majority of Russian air strikes” in Ukraine now involve Iranian-made “kamikaze” drones.

“These Iranian loitering munitions … are mass-manufactured and affordable, making them efficient weapons of terror,” the analyst wrote. “They come equipped, respectively, with 20 or 40 kilograms of explosive warheads.”

Ukraine has received drones from the United States and Turkey. In recent months, Israel — the archenemy of Iran — approved the export of anti-drone systems to help Ukrainian forces counter the Iranian-made vehicles for Russia.