Xi Jinping wants to ‘hollow out Taiwan from within,’ ex-CIA official warns

China’s ruling Communist Party is preparing for war over Taiwan, but President Xi Jinping would much rather take control of the U.S.-backed island democracy without a military clash.

His plan, for now, is to tilt the Taiwanese presidential election in January in Beijing’s favor.

That’s the assessment of David Sauer, a former U.S. intelligence officer with deep experience in the region. He said China’s strategy is to “hollow out Taiwan from within” and “create chaos” around the election to seat a president who will push the island toward unification with the communist mainland.

Chinese officials are engaged in a campaign to “manipulate [the election] in their favor,” said Mr. Sauer, a retired CIA officer who served in multiple overseas command positions in East Asia and South Asia.

Beijing will expand its operation using “a combination of information warfare, military intimidation, political and economic manipulation,” he said during an appearance this week on “The Washington Brief,” a monthly virtual forum hosted by The Washington Times Foundation.

Beijing has clashed repeatedly with independence-leaning Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen since her election in 2016. Ms. Tsai is completing her second four-year term and by law must step down next year.

China will “create divisions within Taiwan society to try to get candidates that they want elected,” Mr. Sauer said. Chinese propaganda will also “frame the election as a choice between peace and war.”

In the wake of the election, China will assess whether to engage in military action or proceed with coercion tactics toward whatever Taiwanese government takes power, he said.

Taiwan faces mounting military intimidation from mainland China, which considers the island democracy to be part of its sovereign territory and has refused to rule out military force to bring it under Chinese Communist Party control.

Ms. Tsai’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party has aligned closely with the United States and has warned that the regime in Beijing is preparing to invade the island and overthrow its fragile democracy.

Speculation is surging in Taipei about returning the opposition Kuomintang party to power. The KMT has a history of advocating for closer economic and diplomatic ties with Beijing.

The DPP is reportedly ahead in public opinion polls, but its path to victory is unclear with a competitive three-way race shaping up this summer.

Taiwanese Vice President William Lai, a DPP stalwart who is likely to push a similar line on China that Ms. Tsai has projected over the past seven years, is polling at about 35%. The more centrist Taiwan People’s Party, which emerged in 2019, is running former provincial Mayor Ko Wen-je, who is close behind at about 30%.

The KMT held power before Ms. Tsai took office and is rallying behind Hou Yu-ih, a former director general of the Taiwan National Police Agency. Mr. Hau has been falling in polling and is given about 20% of the vote.

Mr. Sauer did not specify which Taiwanese candidate China prefers, although Beijing indicates that it intends to undermine the DPP and embrace the KMT.

Chinese media are portraying the DPP’s Mr. Lai as bent on pushing for total Taiwanese independence. Even the Tsai government has resisted such a policy despite its outspoken resistance to Beijing.

An editorial circulated last week by China’s official Xinhua News Agency stated: “It is a reasonable presumption that once in office, [Mr. Lai] would seize every opportunity to push de jure independence and take risks to challenge the one-China principle and the one-China policy that Washington has long adopted. Thus the Taiwan Strait will likely slip into the abyss of military confrontation.”

Chinese officials have been openly courting former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT, who visited Beijing in March.

When Mr. Ma returned from the visit, he “made the statement that this next election is a choice between peace and war — certainly something the Chinese had been trying to parrot, and they got him to spout their line,” Mr. Sauer said.

Some in the Tsai government also worry about Beijing’s efforts to interfere in the election.

Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s unofficial ambassador to the United States, expressed concern during a May interview with The Washington Times that Chinese meddling had penetrated Taiwanese domestic politics through “rampant” disinformation and the promotion of “fake news” supporting Beijing’s positions.

“Their goal is to weaken our democracy, to sow divisions and discontent in our society,” the ambassador said.

Preparing for war?

Although China is intent on controlling Taiwan and “certainly preparing for war,” Mr. Sauer said, war is neither inevitable nor imminent.

Beijing has increased military drills around Taiwan since Nancy Pelosi visited the island democracy last year. As House speaker, Mrs. Pelosi was the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the island in a quarter century.

President Biden has countered the drills by sending U.S. warships through the Taiwan Strait and vowed that U.S. forces would respond militarily if China attacks the island.

The White House has also made clear that Mr. Biden is committed to the “One China” policy. The U.S. has long acknowledged Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China but maintains informal relations and substantial defense ties with the island’s democratic government.

Mr. Biden has stepped back from soaring tensions with Beijing. He has dispatched Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and other senior aides to China for fence-mending talks. The State Department said this week that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been invited to Washington for more discussions.

Joseph DeTrani, a former CIA official and longtime diplomatic adviser on U.S. policy in Asia, said during “The Washington Brief” that U.S. officials are closely watching the Taiwan situation.

The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 made the U.S. position clear: that Taiwan and China should resolve the “One China” issue by “peaceful means,” said Mr. DeTrani, who moderates the monthly forum.

“If other means were used — to include embargoes and anything of a blockade nature — it would be of grave concern to the United States,” he said.

Alexandre Mansourov, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies, told the forum that Mr. Xi is “fixated” on annexing Taiwan. He said Washington should focus more on increasing its defenses in the region.

Mr. Mansourov noted that some in the national security community believe “we need more missiles. We need more ships, we need more bases.”

“Some people in Congress argue the U.S. defense budget must be increased,” he said. “The Taiwanese also must step up their self-defense efforts, so they must really commit to military-to-military and defense industry cooperation, expansion with the United States.”

Although Taipei has significantly advanced defensive capabilities in recent years, progress has been slow, Mr. Sauer said. If China invades, “Taiwan doesn’t really stand a chance unless they really go for a transformation and they do it at a lot faster pace.”

“They have about 170,000 troops, 300 aircraft, about 57 major naval combatants. … They just don’t have enough guys,” he said.

Mr. Sauer said the upcoming election in Taiwan is “really the center of Chinese intelligence activity.”

“All those campaigns I mentioned are infiltrated by Chinese spies and people that are trying to influence the candidates,” he said.