College football conference realignment creates chaos on brink of new season: ‘A tragedy’

College football and its traditions are back Saturday for a season that increasingly looks like the end of an era.

Texas and Oklahoma are set for one more round in the Big 12 before departing for the SEC, and this is the final year for Big Ten-bound USC and UCLA in Pac-12, which may not survive into next season.  

The conference realignments shaking up the game come with plenty of ripple effects — from classic rivalries upended to universities anxious to secure their seat at the table to the average fan struggling to grasp all the movement. 

Where does it end? 

“It’s moving toward consolidation, that’s pretty obvious what’s taking place,” said Lee Berke, a sports media consultant. “You’ve got one conference with 18 schools and one conference with 16 schools, between the SEC and the Big Ten … so you’re seeing a smaller number of larger conferences going forward, but you can command more money.

“And at the end of the day, money and television viewership are really critical for maintaining the viability of these schools’ individual athletic departments.” 

The concept of two giant-sized conferences has become a popular idea in recent years, but circumstances may prevent the consolidation from going that any time soon. 

Television rights deals for the Big Ten and the SEC aren’t up until 2030 and 2034, respectively. Contracts for the Big 12 and the ACC — two conferences that have schools that could be enticed by jumping ship — don’t expire until 2031 and 2036. 

Then again, a number of schools have found ways to jump ship early. 

In 2021, Texas and Oklahoma stunned conference rivals by negotiating an exit to join the SEC — a move that reportedly could earn the schools more than $60 million per year instead of the $34 million per year they received that year. 

To facilitate the move, the two schools agreed to pay $100 million in exit fees.

In the case of the Pac-12, the future of the conference is in question, as eight of its members are set to depart in 2024. The exodus started last summer with USC and UCLA, then accelerated this month when Colorado announced it was leaving to rejoin the Big 12. In turn, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Utah and Washington all decided to jump ship.

The Pac-12’s potential demise — only California, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State remain — was also spurred on by the fact the conference has been unable to secure a lucrative television deal. Talks with ESPN broke down as the conference reportedly rejected a deal that would have paid members $30 million per year. This month, Pac-12 leaders reportedly presented members with a five-year deal from Apple that would have guaranteed $23 million per year plus incentives. That presentation, The Athletic reported, “underwhelmed” university presidents.

Berke said he believes the Pac-12 made a series of miscalculations in its attempt to lock down funding, such as passing on ESPN’s offer. The sports network then shifted its attention to the Big 12, which signed a six-year, $2.2 billion deal with ESPN and Fox. 

The game of musical chairs with television deals left those deeply invested in the conference disappointed.

“I’m really disappointed what happened to the Pac-12,” said Washington Commanders coach Ron Rivera, who played college football at Cal. “That’s one of the oldest conferences in the nation and one of the first ones too. For that matter, there’s a tremendous legacy that’s been built by a lot of guys. My concern is that West Coast football has lost its prominence … and I’m disappointed in that because of the legacy that’s going to really disappear. 

“That to me is a tragedy.”

Rivera said that the Big Ten holding a West Coast presence with USC and UCLA is “not the same” as having a conference regionally aligned.  

That disruption can lead to the end of storied matchups — just look at Maryland. Upon switching from the ACC to the Big Ten in 2014, Maryland basketball has yet to play Duke — a matchup that was always a must-watch for fans. 

Though Maryland’s move to the Big Ten has been financially rewarding — the conference distributed $58.8 million to the school last year — the football program has struggled to compete against the conference’s powerhouses. 

And interest has arguably waned: Maryland’s average attendance of 31,934 last year was the football program’s lowest since joining the Big Ten — despite having an eight-win season in 2022. 

Woody Eckard, an economics professor emeritus at the University of Colorado Denver, said that prior to 2000, conference realignment was fueled primarily by schools dominating a weaker conference and wanting to increase the level of competition. In 2017, he published a study that found that competitive games, in turn, increased a school’s exposure. 

But since then, the landscape has changed with the boon in television rights fees. For context, prior to the Big 12’s six-year, $2.3 billion deal with Fox and ESPN, the conference’s prior media rights deal was for $2.6 billion over 13 years. Upon the new deal reached last October, the average payout went from $20 million per school to $31.7 million. 

“These conferences really aren’t conferences in the traditional sense,” Eckard said. “They’re basically media contracts, TV contracts. And schools are admitted to the conference/contract depending on their presumed ability to draw viewers.”

Berke said in some cases, the contracts between conferences and networks have built-in language that accounts for the fees to increase depending on expansion. He pointed to the Big Ten’s agreement with Fox, CBS and NBC, which reportedly contains an escalator clause if more schools join. In that case, the deal — originally worth more than $7 billion — could reach nearly $10 billion.

The Pac-12’s loss stands to be the Big Ten’s gain: The conference announced it will add Oregon and Washington next August to bring its membership to 18.

Oregon and Washington, however, agreed as part of joining the Big Ten to initially take a reduced amount of the conference rights fees — something that differed from the acquisition of USC and UCLA, which are set to receive full revenue rights. ESPN reported that Oregon and Washington will receive $30 million annually with that figure set to increase by $1 million over the lifetime of the contract (2029-30).

Berke said universities are sometimes willing to make concessions because they’re aware they aren’t the same level of draw as other schools in the conference. The factors, he said, depend on the success of the program, the value of the brand and the school’s market.

But the transfer is still financially massive. Oregon president Karl Scholz told ESPN that over a 10-year span, the Ducks “anticipate averaging over $50 million just from direct media rights.”

Berke said because college sports has no one central authority — the NCAA’s power is relatively limited in terms of conference realignment, he said — a “free marketplace” emerges. 

“It’s funny, people will blame the networks for somehow making these moves,” Berke said. “They don’t. They sit there and say, ‘OK, what are the schools you have to offer? What are the games you have to offer?’ And then … they pay accordingly. It’s up to the conferences and schools how they’re paired together.”