OPINION:
Since the Aug. 10 agreement for a prisoner swap with Iran. the White House has been virtually silent about it. Reports that the agreement includes some undisclosed provisions regarding Iran’s nuclear weapons program make it certain that the deal should not be made.
Under the agreement, Iran will release five American hostages in exchange for five Iranians we hold and payment of $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds as ransom. The funds are supposedly restricted to purchase only food and medicine, but the Iranians have already said that they alone will decide what the money will be used for.
A Wall Street Journal report said Iran was “diluting” some of the uranium it had enriched to 60% in return for the deal.
If so, and considering that “diluted” uranium can be reenriched — and weapons-grade uranium made from it or other ore — we have to conclude that such a deal should never be made. The deal comes at a strange time when tensions with Iran are very high.
The U.S. is sending more military assets to the Strait of Hormuz to guard commercial ships from Iranian hijacking and harassment. The strait is a strategic seaway through which about 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas flows.
One hundred U.S. Marines and sailors — i.e., Navy SEALs — may soon be deployed on some of those commercial ships to prevent Iran from seizing them.
But according to the Middle East Media Research Institute, several European intelligence agencies have indicated that Iran is increasing its covert acquisition of nuclear technology, and one agency says Iran could be preparing for an underground test of a nuclear weapon.
Iran is building a deeply buried site near Natanz that could serve as a nuclear test site.
According to an assessment released July 10 by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Iran has moved closer to producing a nuclear weapon but has stopped short of producing one.
The Middle East Media Research Institute quotes a report by the Netherlands General Intelligence and Security Service, known as AVID, dated in 2022 and released this past April.
According to the institute, the report concludes that Iran is “deploying increasingly more sophisticated uranium enrichment centrifuges it is enlarging its enrichment capacity. This brings the option of a possible [Iranian] first nuclear test closer.”
Also according to the institute, the Swedish Security Service and both AVID and the Federal German Intelligence Agency report that Iran is increasing its covert acquisition of nuclear weapon and missile technology.
Who is more likely correct in assessing Iran’s intent and action: the U.S., or the European intelligence agencies? The European agencies have less reason to taint their conclusions with President Biden’s politics.
Every recent American president — from George W. Bush to Mr. Biden — has flatly stated that Iran will not be permitted to have nuclear weapons. Mr. Biden is evidently backing away about that commitment.
In March, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley told the House Defense Appropriations subcommittee that the United States “remains committed, as a matter of policy, that Iran will not have a fielded nuclear weapon.”
Wow. That’s not just quibbling. It’s a total reversal and a highly dangerous change to American policy.
There’s an enormous difference between stating that Iran won’t be permitted to have a nuclear weapon and not having a fielded nuclear weapon posing an immediate threat to the Middle East, the U.S. and Europe.
Mr. Biden’s Cabinet has been quick to correct the president’s statements that the U.S. would defend Taiwan. There has been no such correction of Gen. Milley’s statement.
Before and after then-President Donald Trump revoked the 2015 deal that then-President Barack Obama made with Iran, the terrorist state has been evading its obligations under that agreement. Yet Mr. Biden has been trying to revive that agreement, one of the few things Mr. Trump did that Mr. Biden hasn’t, so far, undone.
Mr. Biden has been seeking an oral agreement with Iran in order to evade the requirement of the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, which mandates that any written agreement with Iran be submitted to Congress for approval.
House Republicans shouldn’t wait for Congress to return in September. They should immediately investigate, demand answers from the White House and determine what Mr. Biden’s deal means. What’s more, they have to determine whether there has been the radical change of policy indicated by Gen. Milley.
We don’t know much about Mr. Biden’s attempted deal with Iran, but we can rest assured of two things. First, it won’t require Iran to reduce its stockpile of uranium enriched and prohibit it from enriching its uranium to the weapons grade of 90%. Second, it won’t impose inspection requirements to ensure that Iran is abiding by the agreement.
Anyone who believes that the $6 billion paid to Iran will actually be restricted to buying food and medicine is naive. Paying ransom for hostages to the world’s principal state sponsor of terrorism should never happen.
Regardless of the deal, the crucial question is whether Mr. Biden intends to allow Iran to have nuclear weapons as long as it doesn’t deploy them. If so, his policy toward Iran would be a historic retreat and a great danger to us, to Europe and to Israel.
• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and contributing editor for The American Spectator.
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