A version of this story appeared in the Threat Status newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive Threat Status delivered directly to your inbox each Wednesday.
JOHANNESBURG — Leaders from three continents are gathering for a major summit of BRICS, the informal grouping of nations created more than a decade ago to align the world’s top emerging economies but now struggling to achieve diplomatic harmony, especially amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
BRICS is an abbreviation for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. One of the top realities of the summit, which opens in Johannesburg on Tuesday, is that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reputation has become so tarnished on the world stage that he can’t attend in person.
Mr. Putin will address the summit via video link. South Africa is a founding member of the International Criminal Court at The Hague and would have been obliged to arrest the Russian strongman on a warrant for war crimes in Ukraine if he appeared in Johannesburg.
The situation underscores the divisiveness of the war among the top nonaligned powers of the so-called Global South.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, who rhetorically backs Mr. Putin on Ukraine, will combine his trip with an official state visit in South Africa. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is also slated to attend. Like China, Brazil is buying record amounts of Russian oil despite Western sanctions on Moscow.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also is buying Russian oil, but reports this month said he planned to avoid the BRICS meeting. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa reportedly placed an urgent phone call to persuade Mr. Modi to change his mind.
Several Republican and Democratic lawmakers in Washington accuse the Ramaphosa government of supporting Mr. Putin’s war.
Washington is closely watching the gathering, which is expected to anchor on the proposed development of a currency to challenge the global dominance of the U.S. dollar.
Analysts see hope for a successful summit, even with BRICS struggling for relevance in the face of the Russia-Ukraine war, South Africa’s economic difficulties, and widening competition between China and India, the world’s second- and fifth-largest economies respectively.
China has held the No. 2 spot in gross domestic product behind the United States since BRICS was formed, but it is facing an increasing challenge from India, the ninth-largest economy in 2010 when the bloc held its first major summit.
BRICS leaders have met in all five member states, but this is the first in-person gathering since 2019.
Amid a looming appearance of disunity are signs of momentum. More than 40 countries have applied to join the bloc in recent years as a counterbalance to what they claim is American dominance in trade, diplomacy and influence at the United Nations.
The current BRICS nations cover a quarter of the world’s landmass, make up more than 40% of its population and have a combined GDP of $28 trillion — collectively greater than the $25 trillion U.S. GDP.
The China factor
The summit is likely to be a showcase for China, the largest trade partner for Brazil and South Africa.
Despite a surge in Russia-China ties after Western efforts to isolate Moscow with sanctions in response to its invasion of Ukraine, trade between the Chinese and Russian economies remains relatively modest.
Beijing sells more to its rival Taiwan than to neighboring Russia.
Africa has been one of the core destinations of Chinese loans tied to Mr. Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative. The program is intended to expand Beijing’s global influence and connectivity by lending money for development projects in poorer nations around the world.
Although China’s economy has taken a hit in the COVID-19 era, the Xi government will likely use the gathering in Johannesburg to show its growing influence on the continent. Chinese exports in July were down 14% from the same month last year.
How South Africa fits into Beijing’s long-term calculus is debatable.
Like India and Brazil, South Africa is struggling with rapid urbanization and high levels of unemployment, especially among youths. More than one-third of the population is younger than 20.
The BRICS leaders are meeting in the northern Johannesburg suburb of Sandton, dubbed “Africa’s richest square mile.” Commercial turnover on sales — including the Chanel, Gucci, Rolls-Royce and Jaguar brands — exceeds the gross domestic product of Africa’s poorer states.
The extent to which the summit can strengthen political cohesion among South Africa, China and the other states remains to be seen.
BRICS is not the first effort by developing nations to combine their influence.
The Non-Aligned Movement, dating from 1961, includes every African country except South Sudan and much of Asia and Latin America. At its core is neutrality in the tussle for dominance between Moscow and Washington. In the 1970s, the NAM was chaired by Fidel Castro, whose rule over Cuba was underpinned by financial and military dependence on the Soviet Union.
Other Soviet-aligned members included Angola, Mozambique, Ethiopia and Vietnam.
In more than 60 years of existence, NAM has had little impact on trade or diplomacy.
Pushing a new currency?
Analysts say the central focus of discussions at the summit this week will be on BRICS expansion and the potential creation of a currency to replace the U.S. dollar in international transactions.
According to data from the International Monetary Fund, a global institution with headquarters in Washington, the dollar is used for close to 90% of world trade and accounts for more than half of all currency reserves.
As researcher Michael Roach wrote recently for The Interpreter, a flagship publication of the Lowy Institute in Australia, there was “increasing talk of BRICS nations … developing a new currency that will rival the U.S. dollar as the global reserve standard.”
Mr. Roach described the plan as a response to the “weaponization” of the dollar in the form of sanctions and trade wars.
“Many countries are seeking greater independence from the U.S. financial system,” he said.
Ironically, the five BRICS nations quote hotel rates, state-imposed visa fees and other payments in dollars.
The block also has little diplomatic congruence.
Passport holders from South Africa and Brazil may enter Russia at will, but it’s more complicated for the two Asian members, India and China. Indians must obtain a visa in advance, and Chinese citizens may stay in Russia for no more than two weeks without a permit.
Mr. Ramaphosa has invited all African heads of state to attend the summit on a continent notorious for last-minute no-shows.
In July, Mr. Putin hosted a similar gathering of African leaders in St. Petersburg. Only 17 attended.
Some of those invited to Johannesburg have indicated unease over Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Liberian President George Weah said he would avoid Russian events until Mr. Putin’s forces withdraw from occupied territory.
Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa is among the war’s vocal supporters, but elections in his country are slated for Wednesday. Officials say he will stay only a few hours if he travels to Johannesburg.
Developing nations represented at the gathering hope for a sign from China that the collective billions of dollars they owe from more than a decade of loans might be forgiven or reduced.
Whether or not such debt forgiveness comes to the fore, local businesses expect a lively diplomatic scene of big spenders.
Brigidah Khumalo is originally from Zimbabwe but has waited tables at a Sandton restaurant for more than 20 years. In that time, she has served delegations from the United Nations, NAM, BRICS and the African Union.
“We are used to it,” she said, “and we plan ahead. Our restaurant has ordered more than double the usual stock of champagne. The parties will run very late.”
She said African leaders and their officials were courteous.
“They treat us well, and they tip big. It’s going to be a good week.”
Please read our comment policy before commenting.