SEOUL, South Korea — Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s rare trip to North Korea last week is not a sign of a flourishing alliance but the latest indication of the Kremlin’s mounting desperation over its war in Ukraine, U.S. officials say.
Reflecting a more cautious stance, Beijing dispatched a much lower-profile delegation to help Pyongyang mark the 70th anniversary of the end of Korean War hostilities. China has since fortified its policy of withholding weapons from “partner” state Russia.
Overseeing a nighttime military parade in Pyongyang on July 27 to mark “Victory Day,” North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was prominently flanked on the reviewing stand by his visitors from Moscow and Beijing.
Mr. Shoigu has come under criticism in Russia for his leadership of the Ukraine campaign. Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, Defense Department spokesman, told reporters at the Pentagon this week that Mr. Shoigu was on a shopping trip to rebuild Russia’s depleted arsenal as the stalemated military campaign approached the 18-month mark.
“Certainly, we have seen in the past Russia looking to try to obtain munitions from countries like North Korea,” Gen. Ryder said. Mr. Shoigu’s trip “highlights the dire straits that Russia finds itself in when it comes to resupplying and refreshing its munitions capabilities.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently highlighted the same problem for Russian President Vladimir Putin. “We’re seeing Russia desperately looking for support, for weapons, wherever it can find to, to continue to prosecute its aggression against Ukraine,” he said.
Mr. Shoigu, resplendent in full uniform, was making the first visit to North Korea by a Russian defense minister since the collapse of the Soviet Union. His presence underscored Russia’s lack of active supporters and its reliance on partners it traditionally despised.
“For decades, North Korea had a very bad reputation in Russia,” said Andrei Lankov, a Russian-born expert on North Korea who teaches at Seoul’s Kookmin University. “This [visit] shows isolation. Russia is looking for countries that are willing to provide at least some support.”
China’s diplomatic downgrade was widely noted. Heading its delegation was Li Hongzhong, vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress and a member of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party. Mr. Li is a longtime member of the Communist Party hierarchy but lacks the profile and clout of Mr. Shoigu, China watchers say.
Beijing has sent signals of a cooling enthusiasm for Russia’s adventure in Ukraine while offering rhetorical support for Mr. Putin’s criticisms of Kyiv and the West. A Chinese firm has reportedly exported body armor to Russia, but Beijing has not supplied weapons or munitions despite Biden administration concerns.
China halted exports of long-range civilian drones to Russia on Monday because of concerns that they might be used to fight Ukraine.
North Korea and Ukraine
In November, Washington accused North Korea of sending a train loaded with ammunition to Russia. Pyongyang denied the accusation, but evidence of a supply chain is emerging. Last week, a correspondent for the Financial Times observed Ukrainian forces firing North Korean rockets that they likely captured from Russia.
North Korea’s national armory, from small arms to ballistic missiles, is based largely on Warsaw Pact/Russian originals. Key firing barrels — 82 mm mortars, 122 mm “Grad” multiple launch rocket systems and 152 mm howitzers — use identical calibers, and Russia needs munitions.
A senior allied military source told The Times last week that Russia was firing multiple shells for each Ukrainian shot earlier in the war. Now, he said, Russia and Ukraine have reached virtual parity in munitions expenditure.
While Kyiv’s summer offensive proceeds with agonizing sluggishness, a weakness in artillery could prove fateful given that almost all of Russia’s other military arms have underperformed.
Attacking Russian forces sustained heavy losses in cities such as Hostomel and Vuhledar. The mercenary Wagner Group, which spearheaded Russia’s winter offensive and provided thousands of fighters to supplement the Russian attack, has been withdrawn from the theater.
British intelligence reported late last year that battalion tactical formations of regular Russian motorized units have regrouped. Russia’s air force has failed to win decisive air superiority, and its navy has been repelled from Ukraine’s Black Sea coast.
The one Russian weapon that has proved formidable is tactical artillery, which has fought forward assaults and decimated Ukrainian manpower and equipment.
If a munitions shortage, combined with Ukrainian deep strikes on batteries and arms depots, degrades Russia’s artillery, then the status of its expeditionary force in Ukraine may become tenuous.
Moscow messaging
Mr. Lankov thinks Mr. Shoigu has aims beyond acquiring munitions from Pyongyang.
“If Russia really wanted to buy weaponry and more ammunition, why such a show?” he asked. “Was it not possible to send a non-uniformed official for a clandestine meeting? Why attend an arms expo in front of TV journalists?”
The answer, he said, is messaging.
“This could be a way to send a signal to the world about Russia’s willingness to restart military cooperation with North Korea,” Mr. Lankov said. “The message for Washington is that Russia can create an additional area of trouble for the U.S.”
Another Russian source told The Times that Mr. Shoigu’s visit could be “mirroring” South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s surprise visit to Kyiv on July 15. South Korea has been an active supplier of aid and nonlethal military equipment to the Ukrainians, though Seoul has balked at sending hard military aid.
Meanwhile, China’s delegation took a low-key approach in Pyongyang.
Li Hongzhong “isn’t a nobody, but he is relatively low down in the hierarchy compared to Shoigu,” said Joel Atkinson, a professor of Chinese studies at Seoul’s Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. “In theory, Beijing could have chosen to send someone with a bit more gravitas.”
The dispatch of the relatively low-level functionary sends two signals, Mr. Atkinson said. It shows that China considers North Korea to be “a small country that can’t exist without Chinese support” and sends a message to Seoul and Washington that China is open to cooperation.
As for Beijing’s reluctance to arm Moscow, Mr. Atkinson reckons that Chinese President Xi Jinping doesn’t want a defeat for Mr. Putin but “wants to avoid being too provocative.”
Beijing’s commerce and diplomacy are at stake. “Chinese companies are vulnerable to sanctions,” said Mr. Atkinson, adding that arms supplies “would also isolate Beijing’s friends in Europe.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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