Popular vote-winning party in May election dumped from planned new coalition government

BANGKOK, Thailand — The reformist party that was the big winner in Thailand’s spring elections to restore civilian democratic control after a decade of military-dominated rule found itself sidelined Wednesday, effectively blocked from being part of the new governing coalition in Bangkok.

The ouster ends the leadership bid of Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat and appears to clear the way for a conservative real estate tycoon heading the second biggest party in Parliament to be the next prime minister. Pheu Thai Party leader Srettha Thavisin would succeed outgoing Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the former army chief who has dominated the political scene since engineering a coup against the last civilian government in 2014.

The youthful Mr. Limjaroenrat stunned the military and royalist Thai establishment by taking the most seats in the May 14 election, but has struggled to build on his win in the months since. His party’s setback Wednesday was seen as a confirmation that he had virtually no chance to become prime minister after the regime-allied Senate rejected him in July for, among other things, seeking to weaken the strict laws against criticizing the king.

Many in the eight-party coalition of civilian political parties feared that move which could expose them to time-consuming and dangerous allegations and lawsuits filed by litigious royalists. Move Forward’s departure from the hurriedly regrouping coalition also likely means Mr. Pita’s popular party will be in the opposition after the new government is formed.

The dramatic turn of events came after the idealistic, 42-year-old former business executive took 38% of the vote and 151 seats in the popularly elected 500-member House, a vote widely seen as a rejection of the military’s role in previous coups in 2006 and 2014.

But Mr. Pita’s vow to “amend” the lese majeste statutes — which critics say has been abused to silence critics of the king and the army — proved a political burden in the 250-seat Senate, whose members were all appointed by the current regime. To become prime minister, Mr. Pita had to win a substantial chunk of support from the upper house, but only 13 senators joined 312 House members in supporting Mr. Pita’s proposed government in July, leaving him far short of the total needed.

Next up is the PTP’s Mr. Srettha, the second-place rival in Mr. Pita’s collapsed coalition. The 60-year-old Mr. Srettha, whose Sansiri PCL company is one of the largest real estate development firms in the country, was expected to be nominated by a regrouped coalition headed by his PTP. Mr. Srettha has already promised his government would not touch the royal defamation law.

“Pheu Thai has made it clear it will not amend or scrap the law,” he said Tuesday. “The party wants to form a new government and move the country forward. … Today, addressing the bread-and-butter issues affecting people’s daily lives is an overriding priority. Improving the economy must come first.”

If Mr. Srettha becomes prime minister, many expect he will use his private-sector experience to lead a free-market government underpinned by technocrats, military supporters, royalists, conservatives and elite families.

A parliamentary vote of Mr. Srettha’s candidacy could come Friday, unless the Constitution Court, which meets Thursday, decides to open an investigation into the Senate’s July decision to stop Mr. Pita from being nominated more than once. If the court accepts that case on Thursday, the nomination process is expected to be postponed, possibly for 15 days.

In July, the Constitutional Court suspended Mr. Pita from Parliament because of a conflict-of-interest case against him pending before the court. Mr. Pita inherited 42,000 shares of a Thai media company, iTV, from his father, but has denied any wrongdoing.

Mr. Srettha’s odds of winning on Friday were difficult to predict. His 141-seat PTP party traces its lineage back to controversial former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a billionaire tech executive who was toppled in a 2006 military coup and has lived abroad for years dodging 12 years imprisonment for four convictions.

His supporters insist “Thaksinomics” lifted many impoverished rural Thais out of debt, established free health care, bestowed scholarships on students and provided other populist relief. But many military and royalist leaders are harshly critical of his time as prime minister, and Mr. Srettha may struggle as Mr. Pita did in securing support in the conservative Senate.

Mr. Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, fled abroad dodging a prison sentence for financial mismanagement after her administration was toppled in the 2014 coup by Mr. Prayuth. Mr. Prayuth’s new political party had a poor showing in May and he recently announced he was leaving politics when he steps down.

Adding to the tension and uncertainty in Bangkok, Mr. Thaksin recently announced plans to return to Thailand on Aug. 10. Security forces have already vowed that Mr. Thaksin would be arrested upon his arrival in Thailand and immediately be taken to prison.