Yemen crisis resists resolution despite Iran-Saudi thaw

The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran has brought renewed hope that a comprehensive, lasting peace deal may be on the horizon in Yemen, where nearly a decade of civil war has fueled one of the worst humanitarian crises on the planet.

The Saudi-led coalition’s support of the internationally recognized Yemeni government in its battle with the Iranian-backed rebel Houthi movement was widely seen as a proxy war between the region’s two heavyweights.

Hundreds of thousands have died on both sides, and millions of Yemenis still face food shortages and a lack of basic services and sanitation, the United Nations says.

In yet another sign that the Saudi-Iranian thaw has opened negotiating space, a Saudi delegation headed by the kingdom’s ambassador traveled to the Yemeni capital of Sanaa for talks Sunday.

The Saudi team met with Mahdi al-Mashat, head of the Houthi Supreme Political Council, which runs rebel-held areas in Yemen, said The Associated Press, citing the Houthi-run SABA News Agency.

A delegation from Oman, the main sponsor of the Saudi-Houthi talks, arrived in Sanaa on Saturday. SABA offered no details on what was discussed.

The Oman-brokered talks are aimed at preventing a resumption of full-fledged fighting. Officials on both sides said the Iranian-Saudi accords could be key to a breakthrough.

Mohammed al-Bukaiti, a Houthi leader, said in a statement posted on Twitter that the two sides would discuss “ways to achieve a comprehensive and lasting peace in the region.” He said a peace deal would be “a triumph for both parties.”

U.S. officials and foreign policy analysts caution that the optimism may be premature. They say the deal to restore diplomatic ties could be an important milestone in Yemen’s peace process only if Riyadh, and particularly Tehran, take tangible short-term steps.

Biden administration officials specifically want Iran to stop delivering arms and other aid to the Houthi rebels, who have been battling Yemeni government forces since 2014.

The Iranian-Saudi pact — brokered by the Chinese government in a sign of Beijing’s rising geopolitical power — did not offer any concrete commitments to end the war in Yemen. Some foreign policy analysts say one of China’s key accomplishments appears to be persuading Riyadh to agree to the deal without Iranian promises to immediately halt assistance to the Houthis.

Iran should still take that step, officials say, to show it is serious about restoring normal diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and playing a positive role in ending rather than helping perpetuate a regional conflict.

The Saudis “are going to be watching the Yemen space. And if the Iranians want to show they are really turning a corner on the conflict, then there won’t be smuggling of weapons to the Houthis anymore in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions,” Timothy Lenderking, the Biden administration’s special envoy for Yemen, said at a Washington event hosted last week by the Middle East Institute.

“There are narcotics being smuggled to Yemen in violation of Security Council resolutions and to the detriment of Yemeni society,” he said. “So this is an area where the Iranians are going to have to demonstrate their commitment” to ending the conflict.

“We also would like to see the Iranians show support for the political process that we hope is coming,” Mr. Lenderking said.

That political process hinges on continued direct negotiations between the Yemeni government and rebel groups. The conflict has largely cooled since the two sides struck a cease-fire deal in April 2022 at a crucial moment in the fight. By the end of 2021, the United Nations said, an estimated 377,000 people had died as a result of the war — some from direct military action and many more from hunger and disease.

The peace pact expired in October, but both parties have mostly abided by its terms in the months since. Some isolated fighting on the ground continues, but U.S. and international observers say they have seen no major offensives, no cross-border attacks by Houthi groups on Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or other regional players, and no Saudi airstrikes in Yemen.

The cease-fire paid immediate dividends. It allowed for the resumption of regular regional flights out of Sanaa and the movement of food, medicine and other goods through Yemeni ports.

It also offered the brightest glimmer of hope in years for a permanent end to the fighting.

“Maintaining this truce and strengthening progress toward peace has been a main focus of my administration’s engagement with our partners in the Middle East,” President Biden said in an April 2 statement marking the cease-fire’s anniversary. “That focus will continue intensively as we seek to build on this extraordinary progress and support all efforts towards a comprehensive resolution to this terrible conflict.”

Early in his presidency, Mr. Biden cut off U.S. arms shipments to the Saudi-led coalition for offensive operations in Yemen.

Hans Grundberg, the U.N. special envoy, told a Security Council meeting last month that all sides should take advantage of the diplomatic opening.

“The parties must seize the opportunity presented by this regional and international momentum to take decisive steps towards a more peaceful future …,” he said. “Much has been achieved over the past year, and now it is time to [take] the next step.”

The negotiating table

Just days after Saudi and Iranian officials announced their formal restoration of diplomatic ties on April 6, the Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels agreed to a prisoner swap this month that will free at least 887 people, according to the United Nations. Riyadh reportedly freed 13 detainees on Saturday.

“The key issues are internal to Yemen, and the resolution of the conflict has to be internal to Yemen,” said Gerald M. Feierstein, senior fellow on diplomacy at the Middle East Institute and the U.S. ambassador to Yemen from 2010 to 2013.

“A lot of the significance of the [Saudi-Iranian] agreement remains unproven,” Mr. Feierstein said in an interview. “I think it’s not at all clear that it means terribly much and that the resolution of the conflict still has to come through a Yemeni internal negotiation, presumably supported, sponsored, by the U.N.”

Mr. Feierstein said the Houthis must be convinced that they cannot win the conflict militarily and their best option is to engage in direct negotiations. In theory, however, the Houthis could continue fighting without direct Iranian support.

“The Houthis are fully capable of carrying on this conflict without Iran,” Mr. Feierstein said. “I think the provision of drones and ballistic missiles, at least components of those things to the Houthis, has been important to them over the last few years. But could they continue the fight without the Iranians? Yes, absolutely they can.”

Without Iranian support, continuing the conflict over the long term would surely be more difficult for the Houthis. Saudi Arabia initially insisted on the end of aid to the Houthi rebels, but Beijing appears to have helped change that calculus.

“Riyadh’s initial position included preconditions for any talks with Iran on Tehran ‘leaving Yemen to Yemenis,’ as the kingdom viewed Iran’s support for the Houthis as a main obstacle to any de-escalation,” Yasmine Farouk, a Middle East scholar with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in a March 30 analysis. “But over the past two years, the Saudi position has evolved, and China helped broker a compromise by which Riyadh agreed to Tehran’s request to announce the restoration of diplomatic relations before Iran halted support to the Houthis.”

Despite the outstanding questions, officials and analysts largely believe that there has never been a more promising moment to end the conflict.

“This is the best opportunity for peace Yemen has had since this war began,” Mr. Lenderking said, “and we absolutely must take full advantage of the positive strands that are emerging here.”

• This article is based in part on wire service reports.