Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are “soulmates,” says a former high-level CIA official, who warns Washington should prepare for increased Sino-Russian coordination toward the goal of unseating the U.S. as the world’s top superpower.
“The question no longer is whether Russia and China have an alliance, but rather what is the nature of that alliance and what impact is that going to have on the world order?” former CIA Deputy Assistant Director for East Asia and the Pacific Dennis Wilder said.
Mr. Wilder, who helped shape U.S. policy toward China in the George W. Bush and Obama administrations, warned during a panel discussion this week that threats emanating from the alliance could spiral because of Beijing’s ambition to control Taiwan, and Sino-Russian willingness to partner with Iran and North Korea.
“Imagine, if you will, a scenario where Beijing decides to use military coercive power against Taiwan to force unification, but at the same time, Beijing and Moscow encouraged Kim Jong-un to launch an opportunistic war against South Korea,” Mr. Wilder told “The Washington Brief,” a virtual, monthly event series hosted by The Washington Times Foundation.
“I believe U.S. forces are well prepared to blunt any Chinese attack against Taiwan. But frankly, a two-front war in the Pacific is a much, much more difficult strategic problem, particularly if Moscow is either tacitly or directly involved,” he said. “This is the kind of low probability but high impact scenario that should keep us awake at night.”
His comments come amid rising concern in Washington over China’s rhetorical support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, as well growing talk of an emerging Cold War 2.0 dynamic in global geopolitics.
Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin appeared in full alignment last month when the Chinese leader visited Moscow and engaged in a show of solidarity with the Russian president against the U.S. and other Western democracies.
“Putin and Xi are very much soulmates, with highly compatible worldviews. Both see the United States as leading a coalition to weaken if not dismantle Russia and China,” said Mr. Wilder, who held high-level positions on the National Security Council from 2004 to 2015 and is a research fellow at Georgetown University’s U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues.
“China’s decision to build an even closer relationship with Putin through what is called the no-limits friendship has merely reinforced the perception that China has become the greatest enduring strategic threat to Western values ever,” he said.
“China has developed the economic and military capabilities to challenge our system, our global system,” Mr. Wilder said. “China is now the largest trading partner to over 120 countries out of 190 countries in the world. It now has the largest Navy, it’s tripling the size of its nuclear arsenal, and it engages in more military spending than any other nation besides the United States.”
Within the context of China’s rise, Mr. Wilder said the Biden administration fumbled a chance to reach out to Beijing and coordinate over mutual distrust of a nuclear-armed North Korea. “I give this administration very poor marks on North Korea,” he said, accusing the White House of a “kind of strategic neglect” of the issue when it should be pushing for “proactive diplomacy with Beijing to try and see if we can’t restart some meaningful negotiations” with Pyongyang.
While North Korea continues to capture global attention with brazen ballistic missile tests and threatening rhetoric toward the U.S. and its allies, China has dramatically expanded its nuclear arsenal, naval and air defenses, plus engaged in increasingly aggressive military moves across East Asia in recent years.
It’s triggering historic posture shifts among U.S. allies in the region, a situation that Mr. Wilder said is most visible in Japan.
“In the last few years, we have seen what cannot be overstated as a profound change in Japanese thinking and actions because of the increasing Chinese and North Korean threats,” he told The Washington Brief, noting that Japan has not only acquired its first aircraft carriers since World War II, but it also has the largest fleet of F-35 fighter jets outside the United States.
Mr. Wilder said the most significant change came in late 2022, when Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told his Cabinet that his goal is to double Japan’s defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, an increase that would bring Japan’s military budget to some $315 billion over the coming five years.
While the implications of the regional security shifts may require Washington to prepare for a worst-case-scenario security meltdown, Mr. Wilder suggested a “less dramatic” reality will likely find China, Russia, Iran and North Korea working in increasing coordination in the military realm.
“We’re going to see Russian and Chinese and Iranian militaries increase the tempo of their joint exercises,” he said. “Last year for the first time, Chinese fighter aircraft refueled at a Russian air base in the Russian far east and Russian fighters did the same at an airbase in northeast China. Joint exploration of the Arctic may be a future step in deepening ties, as Moscow has been shunned by the West on this topic. And Beijing is probably the most viable alternative for Moscow.”
How Russia’s war with Ukraine may affect such dynamics is a subject of debate.
Mr. Wilder said that “to some extent, the Ukraine war has had an upside for the Chinese because it keeps U.S. military power focused in Europe and has delayed the shipment of [American] military hardware to Taiwan.”
His assertions drew overall nods of agreement from The Washington Brief’s regular panel, which includes former CIA official and longtime U.S. diplomatic adviser Joseph DeTrani and Alexandre Mansourov, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies.
Noting Europe is “a major economic partner of China,” Mr. Mansourov said the coming years will likely see Beijing “try to basically drive a wedge between Europe and the United States by encouraging the European leaders to demonstrate a little bit more strategic autonomy.”
Mr. Wilder, meanwhile, asserted that the Biden administration should continue looking for “some ways of reaching out to China” to keep open a “diplomacy with the Chinese at a very strategic 30,000-foot level,” which could be vital to staving off a future security meltdown.
“Not about every little issue in the relationship, but rather what are our principles? And can we somehow find a modus vivendi, not agreement, but some sort of mutual understanding?” he said.
• Guy Taylor can be reached at gtaylor@washingtontimes.com.
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