OPINION:
The joint statement of the Xi Jinping-Vladimir Putin summit expressed concern about the situation on the Korean Peninsula. That was an understatement. North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs are a threat to the region and the world. And China and Russia are doing nothing to address this nuclear threat.
On March 15, North Korea successfully launched a road-mobile Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile that was reportedly capable of reaching distances as far as 15,000 kilometers (over 9,320 miles), the largest road-mobile ICBM in the world. This was the second ICBM launched by North Korea in 2023. North Korea also recently launched two cruise missiles from a submarine platform and numerous short-range and hypersonic missiles. This year, North Korea has launched 14 ballistic missiles, quickly catching up to the nearly 100 missiles it launched in 2022.
As North Korea displays its ballistic missile prowess, what we’re not seeing is the incessant production of nuclear weapons. Conservative reported estimates credit North Korea with between 40 and 60 nuclear weapons; a recent Rand report said North Korea could have almost 250 nuclear weapons by 2027.
Also of concern is North Korea’s new preemptive use policy for nuclear weapons. If there is an imminent or perceived imminent attack on its leadership or command and control, North Korea will use its nuclear weapons pursuant to its first-use nuclear doctrine. Indeed, North Korea’s recent “nuclear counterattack exercise” during the annual U.S.-South Korea “Freedom Shield” joint military exercise was a statement from the North that it is prepared and willing to use tactical nuclear weapons against targets in South Korea.
The domestic situation in North Korea is bleak. Food and medicine are in short supply, with concern that people will die of starvation, as was the case in the 1990s when over 1 million people died of hunger. In Hyesan province, there were reported demonstrations — something rare in North Korea’s police state — demanding food. The North’s three-year lockdown due to COVID-19, the scarcity of fertilizer, and bad weather compounded with Pyongyang’s unhelpful decision to close many private markets, contributing to an estimated crop of 4.5 metric tons, way below the minimum of 5.7 million metric tones needed for food survival purposes.
North Korea is a dangerous nuclear weapons state with significant domestic economic issues: food scarcity, a dearth of medicines and therapeutics, and a backward health care system.
The nuclear and humanitarian situation in North Korea requires immediate attention.
The U.S. has had 30 years of negotiations with North Korea, all to no avail. In fact, the situation has progressively worsened. The Agreed Framework in 1994 attempted to address the nuclear issue with North Korea. Still, the discovery of North Korea’s clandestine Highly Enriched Uranium program for nuclear weapons put an end to the Agreement in 2002.
The Six Party Talks with North Korea, hosted by China, produced a seminal joint statement in September 2005 that committed North Korea to complete and verifiable dismantlement of all nuclear weapons and programs in exchange for security assurances, economic development assistance and the provision of two light water reactors, for civilian energy, when North Korea returned to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear weapons state. The Six Party Talks — with the U.S., South Korea, Japan, China and Russia — ended in 2009, after some progress in dismantling the North’s Yongbyon nuclear reactor, when the North would not permit nuclear monitors to leave Yongbyon to inspect non-declared suspect nuclear sites.
After the June 2018 Singapore Summit and the failed February 2019 Hanoi Summit between President Donald Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, the situation with North Korea is more dangerous now than ever. The possibility of accidental conflict using tactical nuclear weapons should be apparent to all. And morally, for the 25 million people in North Korea, helping with food and medicine must be an immediate imperative.
Currently, for the U.S., South Korea and Japan, the dialogue with North Korea has ceased. China and Russia have a close and allied relationship with North Korea. One would hope, at least for China, that they would encourage North Korea to return to talks with the U.S. or with the nations of a reconstituted Six Party Talks.
That could be the beginning of a process to get North Korea to halt further nuclear and missile tests in exchange for sanctions relief and the beginning of a process that will take many years, for complete and verifiable denuclearization, in exchange for a path to normal relations and the infusion of foreign direct investments into North Korea for economic development purposes. Any resumed dialogue with North Korea should and must include a discussion of human rights and the need for North Korea to make substantial progress on the dire human rights situation in the North.
The Xi-Putin joint statement dealing with North Korea said: “China and Russia call on relevant parties to actively respond to China and Russia’s joint efforts to promote peace talks and play a constructive role in this process.”
Indeed, this is the time for China to work with the U.S. on the North Korea issue; to show to the world that this — and hopefully other issues of mutual concern — can lead to greater security in East Asia and the world.
• Joseph R. DeTrani is the former special envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea and the former director of the National Counterproliferation Center. The views are the author’s and not those of any government agency or department.
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