SEOUL, South Korea — Good vibes and happy talk will likely be at the fore as President Biden hosts South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on Wednesday for a full-fledged state visit, but beyond the glittering dinner and photo opportunities will be simmering issues to discuss.
For the cameras, the leaders will celebrate Korean War heroism and 70 years of their bilateral alliance that has prevented war on the tense, divided Korean Peninsula. That bond was sealed in 1953, the year the Korean War armistice was signed, committing both parties to mutual defense and the stationing today of some 28,000 American troops in South Korea to guard against the threat from a nuclear-armed North Korea.
“President Biden and President Yoon will highlight the importance and enduring strength of the ironclad … alliance as well as the United States’ unwavering commitment to [South Korea],” the White House said in a statement previewing the summit and the state dinner. “That commitment will be welcome, given that Pyongyang is on an arms development roll, showcasing new threats including solid-fuel ballistic missiles and underwater atomic torpedoes.”
The two leaders look closely aligned on this matter. Behind closed doors, economic, diplomatic and military issues will likely prove tricky to finesse.
Semiconductors are the most valuable exports of trade-dependent South Korea. Last year, $129 billion in computer chip sales represented about 20% of all its exports. China is the leading customer of South Korean chips and is where Korean firms fabricate the strategic components. With Washington leaning on its allies to decouple from Beijing in the chip sector, Korean media have been jittery.
South Korean automakers also are indignant that they cannot receive tax breaks and subsidies from President Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act for electric vehicles despite their hefty investments in the U.S. auto sector.
Mr. Yoon, who departed for the U.S. on Monday, is accompanied by a sizable business delegation that includes the heads of chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK hynix Inc. and Hyundai Motor Co.
Like Mr. Biden, Mr. Yoon has to keep an eye on the electoral calendar and how the results of this week’s talks play into politics back home.
“He needs some wins here to bring back to Seoul ahead of the general election next April,” said J. James Kim, a research fellow at Seoul’s Asan Institute. “He is taking leaders from business, and we expect to see moves to win accolades in that constituency.”
Mr. Yoon might have scored a win before his plane landed. Administration officials revealed Monday that Mr. Biden was preparing to announce an enhanced nuclear deterrence policy with Seoul aimed at North Korea, including a cybersecurity initiative, economic investments and educational partnerships, The Associated Press reported.
A Biden official briefing the press on background told AP that the deterrence package is a response to an aggressive series of missile tests by the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in recent months and Pyongyang’s rejections of diplomatic overtures from Washington and Seoul.
Security concerns
The proposed U.S. package may prove a useful lifeline for Mr. Yoon, who is taking heavy flak on a security problem deeply rooted in the region’s history.
Washington has long sought to upgrade trilateral military cooperation in Northeast Asia. U.S. officials say frosty relations between its key allies Japan and South Korea undercut hopes for a united front against the challenges posed by North Korea and China.
The campaign finally appeared to bear fruit when Mr. Yoon ventured out on a political limb in mid-March to settle the long-running rift with Tokyo over forced labor and other abuses dating back to World War II. Mr. Yoon’s state visit to Washington was announced one week before he met in Japan with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, but the initiative has driven his domestic approval ratings south.
Mr. Biden plans to highlight Mr. Yoon’s “courage and determination in rapprochement with Japan” as a vital contribution to regional security, aides told AP.
A more recent complication has been the massive U.S. intelligence leak debacle. A tranche of classified disclosures, posted online in March, include allegations that Washington has snooped on its ally and eavesdropped on conversations at some of Seoul’s highest decision-making bodies.
Mr. Yoon may face pressure on two more sensitive issues for South Korea: agreeing to supply weapons to Ukraine in its war with Russia and taking a firmer stance on Taiwan in the face of growing aggression from China.
“Restrictions on Korean companies do not play well domestically, especially in the context of the deal with Japan that has put Yoon under pressure, and the eavesdropping has added more pressure,” said Karl Friedhoff, a Korea specialist at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. “He has to win some concessions on the economic side.”
Business blunders
Under the CHIPS Act, another Biden priority, Washington is seeking to build up chip manufacturing in the U.S. and deny Chinese competitors access to cutting-edge processing technology. The Biden administration is also pressing allies to downgrade their China-facing exports and investments.
In October, the U.S. offered South Korean chipmakers a one-year grace period to export chipmaking gear to China. In March, “guardrail” provisions published by the Commerce Department granted manufacturers that receive U.S. subsidies the right to export critical equipment to China, though it set a 5% production cap on top-tier chips.
South Korean media said the changes avoided “a worst-case scenario” with regard to trade with China, South Korea’s biggest external market. Yet with chips central to the U.S. pressure campaign on China, few believe Korean firms can breathe easy.
“If Japan is not going to sell into China, and the Netherlands is not, then if Korea breaks it, the whole thing falls apart,” Mr. Friedhoff said. “I think that is essentially going to be the entire focus.”
South Korean automakers are ineligible for the new subsidies and tax breaks that their U.S. competitors receive for investments in electric vehicles. During Mr. Biden’s trip to Seoul last year, Hyundai announced investments of $10 billion through 2025 in the U.S. market. South Korean automakers do not make EVs in the U.S.
“On the IRA, I don’t expect much change. … The legislation is carefully written, and there is little room for the Biden administration to make exceptions,” said Asan’s Mr. Kim. “Treasury is working very hard to find a loophole on EV tax credits, but they are straitjacketed.”
Seeking win-wins
One easy win may be for Mr. Biden to double down on security commitments. Such a policy might allay nervousness that the U.S. is giving way as the region’s dominant power to a rising China or that the U.S. security umbrella is no longer strong enough to hold off North Korea.
“There is an ongoing debate in South Korea about the credibility of the U.S. security commitment. If there is war, can the U.S. commit as it did in the past with massive involvement?” asked Moon Chung-in, an academic who has advised the liberal Seoul governments that have engaged North Korea. “Korean society is divided between those who believe that the U.S. will come and engage to save South Korea, and others who have lingering doubts on a U.S. commitment of that magnitude.”
In this context, Mr. Yoon’s government has persistently talked up the importance of “extended deterrence” — the deployments of assets such as nuclear-capable aircraft, submarines and carrier groups.
Potentially fertile areas for bilateral cooperation lie in intelligence-sharing, space technologies and nuclear and renewable energies, Asan’s Mr. Kim said.
He suggested that South Korea, which announced its Indo-Pacific strategy in November, might be willing to join the U.S. in a wider security role beyond the Korean Peninsula.
Defense industries are another promising area. Informed sources in Seoul believe the U.S. has ceased to aggressively defend intellectual property in arms, thereby enabling South Korea, with its vast manufacturing muscle, to join the West’s flagging “arsenal of democracy.”
Seoul is “lending” 300,000 to 500,000 155 mm artillery shells from stockpiles to the U.S. and is fulfilling a massive arms order for Poland, including tanks, artillery, rockets and warplanes. Whether it is willing to arm Ukraine directly is another matter. South Korean law forbids aid to armed combatants engaged in an active war.
In a Reuters interview last week, Mr. Yoon mentioned the possibility of supplying Ukraine and also mentioned Taiwan — drawing fire from Russia and China.
Beijing slammed Mr. Yoon for calling Taiwan a “global issue.” Top Russian national security aide Dmitry Medvedev warned that Moscow would supply Pyongyang with its “latest” weapons if Seoul arms Kyiv.
Mr. Friedhoff is unconvinced that Mr. Yoon’s apparently unscripted comments signal a policy shift.
“Maybe the best lesson is to keep Yoon away from one-on-one interviews with international media,” he said. “Things seem to go a bit haywire.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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