Macron’s imaginary summit won’t stop Putin

OPINION:

To some Western observers, it seems like in a time of crisis French President Emanuel Macron continues to waste his breath – first on Russian President Vladimir Putin, now on China’s Chairman Xi Jinping. After his disastrous attempt at “diplomacy” in Beijing this month, many are left asking – what was the point?

But looking at the state of Paris these last few weeks may point to one answer – Macron is desperate for a win to push through his deeply unpopular domestic programs. From Erdogan to Abramovich, many others have tried and failed before him, but Macron believes he has a chance at playing peacemaker. Bringing the War in Ukraine to an end would be just the sort of win that he needs to secure his political legacy. In his rush to deflect from his domestic failings he has latched on to the first thing that crossed his desk – Chairman Xi’s Russia-appeasing “peace” plan.

Beijing’s peace plan is ridiculous to anyone that actually read it, but Macron is hoping the people listening to his grandiose speeches hadn’t. When examined critically, Beijing’s proposed solution boils down to this: Ukraine is to cede the territory it has lost so far in exchange for Putin promising not to nuke them.  At no point is the disputed territory addressed, and Moscow would happily welcome the ensuing few years of calm to rebuild and retrain its military.

Mr. Macron does have a point - Europe should be in charge of its own security policy. An excellent ambition, and something I have been asking for many years now. But aside from his latest posturing on the global stage, his own country still fails to meet the meager two percent of GDP spending on NATO requested from all allies. Is a nation incapable of pulling its own weight in a position to dictate security policy? When Paris commands the sort of military presence that Washington exerts on the global political landscape perhaps Macron may be in a better position to achieve this goal.

The effects on Europe the proposed course of action would bring about are devastating, but Macron isn’t thinking of Europe, or NATO, or even the future of France. No, Macron thinks only of Macron, and securing his immediate position of power is infinitely more important than some hypothetical future war that his calculus tells him may not occur.

By endorsing China, Macron seems to want to eat his cake and have it too - arguing that Europe should stay out of issues that don’t affect the EU while demanding the rest of the world, particularly the US, to contain Russian aggression in Ukraine. But Mr. Macron’s myopia has impacted even his short-term popularity. Rather than flowers and cheers, his return from Beijing was punctuated with confusion and worry. Even France’s EU neighbors felt uncomfortable at the prospect of abandoning the United States security umbrella in favor of French protection. The French military still has a long way to go to fill the boots Mr. Macron seems to think he can wear.

Mr. Macron is refusing to accept responsibility for tough decisions, demanding that allies take care of his problems. Now, even China’s ambitions in Taiwan are being dismissed as a uniquely “American problem”, perhaps due to a lack of understanding, perhaps due to wilful ignorance, but most likely because he is too scared or inept to lead a country during a crisis, and looks to sacrifice Europe’s future for a comfortable French present.

Let’s explore how Macron’s imagined near-future peace summit. Who would attend? Definitely, Xi, to champion his appeasement plan, and Putin, to accept his war trophy. Brazil’s Lula, fresh out of prison, is ready to shake up the global order and push for a multi-polar world where the USA isn’t the only major player. Olaf Scholz would probably join as well, eager to restart cheap gas from Russia, and finally, Putin’s lap dog in Belarus, Lukashenko. Neither Sunak nor Biden nor, most importantly, Zelenskyy, the parties most necessary to validate the agreement, would join.

For the last year of war Ukraine’s stated primary goals have been to recapture lost territory and rebuild the country. These two priorities are not addressed in Xi’s peace plan, and Macron’s decision to embrace it reflects poorly on the country’s leadership in the eyes of allies. Judging from the domestic response to return from Beijing, it is unclear if distancing France from allies during a time of crisis is a prudent distraction from his domestic failings. 

For over 40 years following Charles de Gaulle’s 1966 withdrawal from the NATO military command, France has attempted to navigate the global geopolitical landscape without taking orders from Washington. In 2009, then-president Nicolas Sarkozy reversed this decision, recognizing that allies have mutual interests and that working together with the United States does not imply any sort of subordination. Mr. Macron would benefit from remembering that, at the end of the day, French interests are NATO interests as well, and by working together we can achieve more than we could ever dream of reaching alone.

• David Zaikin is the CEO and founder of Key Elements Group a strategic media communications and crisis management advisory firm. Born in Ukraine, he founded Ukraine Momentum, a London-based advisory group launched in 2022 in response to the ongoing war in Ukraine.