Robinson may be a reach at 16, but running back still makes sense for Commanders

If the Commanders were truly set on picking the best player available at No. 16, then running back Bijan Robinson might make the most sense.

Widely regarded as the best rushing prospect since Saquon Barkley, the Texas product is seen as one of the top talents in this year’s draft class. And Robinson may very well be sitting there when Washington is on the clock since teams have become hesitant about using first-round picks on running backs. Robinson has been often linked to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8 in mock drafts, though his range could more realistically fall between the teens and 20s.

There are a number of reasons that the position has become devalued and Robinson would likely be a reach at No. 16 for Washington, which holds bigger needs along the offensive line and cornerback.

That doesn’t mean, however, that running back should be off the board entirely.

The Commanders, on paper, already have a solid rushing attack with Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson. And yet, Gibson — a third-round pick in 2020 — is entering the final year of his contract and the team cut pass-catching back J.D. McKissic earlier this offseason when the veteran failed to pass a physical. Coach Ron Rivera went as far as to acknowledge that the team would like to add another running back with McKissic gone.

“Well adding to it is important for us,” Rivera said. “We’ve got a couple of guys that we like that are going to compete as well. But we will most certainly look for another guy to come in and be a multi-purpose guy. … Is there a guy out there in free agency? Potentially. And could you draft one? Possibly.”

Rivera has since walked back comments he made at the team’s season-ending press conference when general manager Martin Mayhew said he envisioned the Commanders having a two-to-one run-pass ratio. But even if Washington doesn’t fully rely on the run, there are areas of Washington’s rushing attack that could use improvement.

Last season, the Commanders ranked just 28th in yards per rushing attempt and 29th in rushing efficiency (DVOA) — despite having the fourth-most rushing attempts and 12th-most rushing yards. As strong as Brian Robinson looked as a rookie, the Alabama product mustered just 3.8 yards per carry as he worked his way back from being shot twice in the leg during training camp.

There are other ways, of course, Washington could look to fix its rushing attack without adding another back. The Commanders spent the first portion of free agency trying to beef up their offensive line by signing center Nick Gates (6-foot-5, 307 pounds) and right tackle Andrew Wylie (6-foot-6, 310 pounds). In the first round of next week’s NFL draft, offensive linemen such as tackle Anton Harrison and guard O’Cyrus Torrence might be options to further add size to Washington’s trenches.

Still, if the Commanders want to add another back, Bijan Robinson would be the best possible option. At Texas, the 21-year-old evaded and bulldozed through defenders to rush for 1,580 yards last season. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler described Robinson as a rusher with “a unique mix of elusiveness, vision and power” who is a “complete package as both a runner and receiver.” He would likely be a valuable resource for second-year quarterback Sam Howell, who could benefit from a strong rushing attack as he looks to become a full-time NFL starter.

But no position in the NFL over the past decade has arguably seen more of a transformation in its perceived value than at running back. Until the 2010s, it was commonplace for teams to build their offenses around star rushers — and teams tried to find them by using first-round picks.

Now? Having a run-powered offense — let alone drafting a running back in the first round — has fallen out of vogue. The reasons for this have been well dissected, but can be largely attributed to the NFL’s passing boon and the position’s durability.

“My philosophy on kind of running backs is I don’t mind taking a running back
in the first round, as long as your team is ready to win right now,” the NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah said in February.

Jeremiah told reporters that, even outside of Robinson, this year’s class of backs is “really solid.” Other top prospects include Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs, UCLA’s Zach Charbonnent and Texas A&M Devon Achane. Northwestern’s Evan Hull, Syracuse’s Sean Tucker and Georgia’s Kenny McIntosh are projected to be later-round picks who could fill the void left by McKissic.

The Commanders have a total of eight picks in this month’s draft.

“If you need tight ends and running backs, to me the sweet spot is the third, fourth round because I think you’re getting a second-round type player in a traditional year,” Jeremiah said. “They’re really, really good.”