Law-and-order candidates stumble in major cities even as crime remains top issue for voters

Violent crime is surging across major U.S. cities, but voters in those urban centers are rejecting candidates running on avowedly law-and-order platforms.

The paradox of voters being concerned about rising crime, yet rejecting candidates committed to tackling violence, was on display this month in Chicago’s mayoral race. Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson narrowly won a hotly contested Democratic primary runoff against former Chicago schools chief Paul Vallas, who vowed to make Chicago “the safest city in America.”

Mr. Johnson, a liberal activist and teacher, was dogged by accusations of seeking to defund the police. The charge stemmed from a resolution he introduced at the height of the George Floyd protests in 2020 that would have diverted police funding to social welfare programs. Mr. Vallas was endorsed by the city’s police union, but it wasn’t enough to win.

Similar themes have played out in mayoral elections in Los Angeles and Milwaukee, heavily Democratic cities grappling with rising violence where the tough-on-crime candidates have lost.

“Crime is certainly a politically salient issue,” said Rafael Mangual, the policing and public safety scholar at the Manhattan Institute. “However, I think it’s still an open question as to whether that salience translates into action in terms of the voting outcomes in urban America.”

The Chicago and Los Angeles mayoral races received national attention. Crime in both jurisdictions has exploded in recent years.

In Chicago, the overall crime rate jumped by 41% from 2021 to 2022. The rise was driven by a 102% increase in motor vehicle theft and a 56% jump in petty theft. Homicides in Chicago, which have decreased slightly since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, are at their highest rate in decades.

A WBEZ poll taken one month before Chicago’s election found that 44% of voters said crime and public safety were the most important issues in their votes for mayor. Criminal justice reform came in a distant second at 13%. Nearly two-thirds of respondents said they felt unsafe in the city.

Los Angeles has fared no better. Crime jumped by more than 11% from 2021 to 2022. In some neighborhoods, violent crime spiked more than 114%.

Analysts say every election is fought on different terms, even if contests have broad common themes.

In Chicago, Mr. Johnson benefited from a concerted push by the city’s teachers unions, which held a grudge against Mr. Vallas over his support of charter schools. Unions poured millions of dollars into Mr. Johnson’s campaign.

Throughout the campaign, Mr. Johnson denied that he supported defunding the police. He said Chicago had to be smart about how it funded law enforcement services. The claim elicited accusations of lying by Mr. Vallas.

“What I’m saying is that we’re going to spend our money smart,” Mr. Johnson said. “That’s what I’m saying, all right? Look, I know the narrative out there about me and our movement. I get it. I do. People want to reduce our pain to a hashtag.”

Even as Chicago voters rated crime as their top issue, a coalition of working-class Black voters and college-educated Whites helped Mr. Johnson beat Mr. Vallas by nearly 5 percentage points in the mayoral runoff.

Mr. Johnson also received high-profile support from figures on the far left, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Democrat, Sen. Bernard Sanders, Vermont independent, and Chicago-born rapper and actor Common.

In November, former Rep. Karen Bass bested billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso, who ran exclusively on fixing Los Angeles’ exploding homelessness and crime problems. Although Ms. Bass was an early critic of defunding the police, she backed efforts to overhaul the nation’s policing laws and make it easier for law enforcement officers to be sued for bad conduct on the job.

The position put Ms. Bass in league with liberal activists and against police unions, many of which endorsed Mr. Caruso.

“We want someone who is tough on crime because crime is out of control. Gun violence is totally out of control. Murders are up. Our city is dirty. Homelessness everywhere,” Jerretta Sandoz, vice president of the Los Angeles Police Protective League, said in an ad backing Mr. Caruso. “We need someone who can get the job done, and we do not believe it’s Karen Bass.”

Ms. Bass won the contest by nearly 10 percentage points, even after Mr. Caruso raised and spent more than $104 million on his bid.

She rallied Democrats by running against income and housing inequality — issues that were difficult for Mr. Caruso to repudiate as a real estate developer.

“Urban voters are fickle,” Mr. Mangual said. “A few years ago, everyone heralded the mayoral victory of Eric Adams in New York City as a reflection of the changing views of voters on crime. But in that year, Alvin Bragg ran on an explicitly reform agenda and was elected district attorney of Manhattan.”

A special mayoral election in Milwaukee last year pitted Democratic city alderman and acting Mayor Cavalier Johnson against Republican Bob Donovan.

Mr. Donovan made crime the centerpiece of his campaign, calling for the hiring of more police officers and tougher prison sentences for offenders. Mr. Johnson, while shunning the defunding of police, argued for a more holistic approach to solving crime.

“We have to make the changes we need to make this city safer for everybody,” Mr. Johnson said at the height of the race.

The Democrat wound up winning in the predominantly liberal city.

Mr. Vallas is White and Mr. Johnson is Black, but public frustration with rising rates of homicide and gun violence cuts across racial and ethnic lines. In one pre-election poll, 57% of Chicago voters picked crime as their top concern, followed by the cost of living and jobs. That included a majority of Black and White voters and 48% of Hispanic voters.