It’s a sign of the times for the region: Alarms sounded in Japan on Thursday and residents were urged to take shelter amid fears that a North Korean missile was bearing down on the country’s northern island of Hokkaido.
In fact, the ballistic missile, test-fired from a site near Pyongyang into the Sea of Japan, splashed east of the Korean peninsula, did not make landfall in or near Japan, and the government warnings were withdrawn about a half-hour later, according to Japanese media.
Citing confidential government sources, South Korean media said that the North Korean missile may have been a brand-new model powered for the first time by a solid propellant. Solid-fuel missiles can be deployed without the lengthy fueling process required by liquid-fuel missiles, making them less vulnerable to a pre-emptive strike by the U.S. and its regional allies.
While Pyongyang is widely believed to be working on a solid-fuel missile, it remained unclear if Thursday’s test marked a breakthrough for the regime of leader North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Thursday’s launch was the North’s first long-range missile firing since the country tested its longest-range, liquid-fueled Hwasong-17 ICBM on March 16, The Associated Press reported. Mr. Kim vowed Monday to enhance his nuclear arsenal in more “practical and offensive” ways.
The false alarm did not prevent officials from deploying the rhetoric typical of such incidents: Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said North Korea’s launches are a “grave and imminent threat,” while U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said the test “needlessly raises tensions and risks destabilizing the security situation.”
While deadly real-world battles rage in Ukraine, faux battles and arms tests are putting Asia on edge.
Springtime military drills by South Korea and the U.S. have irked North Korea, which considers them invasion preparation and frequently responds by what are characterized as “provocations” – such as missile tests. The North has also stopped responding to routine Southern telephone calls on a cross-border hotline in recent days.
Meanwhile, Chinese forces held three days of Taiwan-facing drills from Saturday through Monday, following Taiwanese President Tsai In-weng’s meeting last week with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
And on April 11, Philippine and U.S. forces kicked off a series of drills on and around the Philippines that will run through April 28.
Lance Gatling, Tokyo-based principal of Axial Research and formerly a joint operations planning officer with U.S. forces in Japan, said that Tokyo’s concerns over high-altitude threats are based on real war-time traumas – delivered, ironically, by its current ally, the U.S.
“Historically, the ability of America to attack Japan during World War II was a huge blow to the Japanese,” he said. “That they were vulnerable to [high-altitude] bombers was a huge wakeup call for Japan.”
More recently, concerns that North Korea is moving to conduct a nuclear weapons test — its seventh and first since 2017 — have not yet been borne out.
Some believe that Pyongyang has both a limited stockpile of fissile materials and no need to prove a well-tested capability. Others believe it needs to showcase a tactical, battlefield nuclear device, rather than the strategic, large-yield warheads it has detonated thus far.
China is also said to be playing a restraining role, in part for fear that a North Korean nuclear test would result in an even stronger U.S. military presence in the region.
Following President Xi Jinping’s reinstatement as national leader at last October’s Communist Party Congress and March’s National People’s Congress, analysts say Beijing has moved to modify years of aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy in favor of a less confrontational approach on issues other than Taiwan.
Not only has China declined so far to arm invasive Russia in Ukraine, it has recently surprised the world by engineering a nascent diplomatic normalization deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Mr. Xi has, in recent days, welcomed a string of major global players – including the leaders of Brazil, the EU, France and Spain – to Beijing in recent days.
“I think China has had a change of heart. They are being a constructive player not only with North Korea but in many different areas,” said Go Myong-hyun, an analyst with Seoul think tank the Asan Institute. “They are focused on Taiwan, so they don’t want to extend the front.”
Still, China could not resist another shot at the Biden administration in light of the most recent tensions. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Wang Wenbin told a Beijing briefing Thursday, “The negative impact of the U.S. military exercises and strategic weapons deployed around the peninsula a few days ago is obvious to all.”
• This story is based in part on wire service reports.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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