OPINION:
When China stepped in to broker a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran last month, it filled a vacuum created by the Biden administration. That vacuum was created through the administration’s deliberate diminishment of the Abraham Accords agreement.
Of course, China had a presence in the Middle East long before this agreement, and Russia’s presence dates back to the height of the Cold War. The difference during the Trump administration, however, is that our allies knew the U.S. was unwavering in standing behind them.
The Abraham Accords — the culmination of that approach — were historic not only because they achieved the first agreement between Israel and its neighbors in decades but also the best example of America’s ability to exercise “peace through strength” — preventing wars by building collaboration among allies. Peace among allies is the key ingredient to deterring our adversaries.
Although some allies have had problematic connections to Communist China, the Abraham Accords allowed them to turn away from our adversaries. For example, free trade agreements between Israel and its neighbors are a key deterrent against China’s economic influence in the region. Indeed, it was because of the Abraham Accords that the United Arab Emirates was able to sideline China’s investments in Israel.
Moreover, the Trump administration’s policies in the Middle East were the reason that Russia — a longtime power broker in the region — found its influence diminished. When Turkey purchased the S-400 anti-aircraft system from Russia, the Trump administration responded clearly by removing it from the F-35 program and imposing sanctions. With the “maximum pressure” campaign moving full throttle against the Iranian regime and its proxies, Russia’s main client in the region, Iran, was put on notice.
Today, several nations in the region are taking decidedly different approaches because of the new posture the Biden administration has established. Turkey, a NATO ally, sends Russia technology that has reportedly assisted Russia’s military, and in 2022, Turkey was described as a haven for Russian oligarchs. This is helping them evade sanctions over the war in Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia was among the nations in 2022 that initially refused to criticize Russia over its invasion of Ukraine (it eventually did so at the United Nations) and worked in tandem with Russia in cutting oil supply. And it was recently reported that Russia, China and Iran would conduct joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman. Chinese state-backed companies are reportedly in talks to build two ports in Israel and one in the UAE. Over the last several years, the UAE has reportedly strengthened ties with the Assad regime in Syria.
That all of this is taking place during the Biden administration is no coincidence. This administration’s policy in the Middle East — if any can be discerned — is a far cry from the “peace through strength” approach of the Trump administration.
There is scarcely any mention of the Abraham Accords, except for awkwardly marking calendar anniversaries of the agreement when White House officials must acknowledge it. The administration has also elevated the unaccountable Palestinian Authority and has restored funding to it (in violation of U.S. law as expressed in the Taylor Force Act). Indeed, the administration’s fiscal 2024 budget unveiled earlier this month makes no mention of the Abraham Accords and calls for $259 million in assistance to the Palestinians “in support of a two-state solution with Israel.”
The Trump administration reversed decades of problematic U.S. policy in the Middle East by making the region a model for peace rather than creating obstacles. That was because our allies understood, based on our policies, that they would never need to make a choice between our adversaries and us because America stands with them. Adversaries also understood that they would need to face the unrivaled might of the United States if they chose to undermine us or the peace we brokered.
The Biden administration’s actions today send the opposite message: That our allies will need to search for the U.S. to see if we really do have their backs. Saudi Arabia’s accepting of China’s invitation to join a deal with Iran is not only a snub, but it is an understandable choice for them to make. That, and the cascade of threats that follow from an America in retreat, will be ones for which America and its allies will pay the price.
• Jacob Olidort is the director of the Center for American Security and director of the Center’s Middle East Peace Project at the America First Policy Institute. Adam Savit is the director of the China Policy Initiative at the America First Policy Institute.
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