President Biden’s speeches denouncing “MAGA” Republicans have fired up Democrats, but they also have stirred up a hornet’s nest of outrage among conservatives.
Whether the rhetoric drives moderate Republicans toward or away from Mr. Trump and Republican candidates associated with his brand, Mr. Biden has accepted the wager, political analysts say.
Polls show mixed voter reactions to Mr. Biden’s unprecedented speech Sept. 1 outside Independence Hall in Philadelphia, where he declared that “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic.”
Mr. Biden wasn’t targeting only the former president.
Political analysts say the speech also was intended to make the Republican Party appear toxic to voters ahead of the critical midterm elections. The results will determine which party controls the House and Senate in the next Congress.
Analysts are delving into how the Sept. 1 speech — and several follow-up speeches in which he doubled down on the hot rhetoric — could impact the midterm elections and Mr. Trump’s political prospects.
Nathan L. Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Inside Elections, said it is impossible to predict whether Mr. Biden’s attack on MAGA Republicans will push voters toward or away from Mr. Trump.
“Up to this point, if a Democrat attacks Trump, the majority of Republicans will defend him in the face of criticism from a common enemy,” Mr. Gonzales said. “Support for Trump in a hypothetical 2024 primary race looks different because there are other Republican choices in that fight, not whether you support the Democratic side or Republican side.”
Mr. Biden’s description of MAGA Republicans as those who supported “the mob that stormed the United States Capitol” could push mainstream Republicans away from Mr. Trump because it highlighted some of the more extreme elements of the former president’s fan base.
“They don’t want to see Trump attacked, but they don’t want to be affiliated with the Oath Keepers and insurrectionists,” Mr. Gonzales said.
A Trafalgar Group poll of likely midterm election voters released after Mr. Biden’s Philadelphia speech found that more than 89% of Republicans and 62% of independents believe the remarks “represent a dangerous escalation of rhetoric and is designed to incite conflict amongst Americans.”
Still, those feelings may not translate into more support for Mr. Trump.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Sept. 8 found that 59% of respondents said Mr. Biden’s speech would further divide the country. Among Republican voters, 60% said they don’t think Mr. Trump’s MAGA movement represents the majority of the party.
Among all respondents, 58% said Mr. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement is “threatening America’s democratic foundations.” Only 25% of Republican respondents agreed with that statement.
Mr. Trump hasn’t announced a third bid for president but has repeatedly suggested that he will be a candidate.
Polling taken after Mr. Biden’s Sept. 1 speech shows that Mr. Trump’s popularity remains basically unchanged. His unfavorable rating has held steady at around 56%.
In an Economist/YouGov poll taken two days after the Philadelphia speech, Mr. Trump’s base remained lukewarm about another White House run.
Although 57% of 2020 Trump voters want the former president to run for another term in 2024, 43% said they were either unsure or opposed to a candidacy.
Among key independent voters, only 25% said they want Mr. Trump on the ballot in 2024.
After telling reporters he did not consider every Trump voter a threat to the country, Mr. Biden doubled down on his attack against the MAGA wing of the Republican Party.
“Those who love this country must be more committed to saving our democracy than the MAGA agenda is to destroying it,” the president tweeted on Sept 7.
The next day, in remarks at a Democratic National Committee event in Maryland, Mr. Biden said America is at an inflection point. “The extreme set of MAGA Republicans has chosen to go backward, full of anger, violence, hate and division.”
He said “not every Republican is a MAGA Republican,” not every member of the Republican Party “embraces extreme ideology” and some Republicans are “mainstream.”
It’s not clear whom Mr. Biden meant to target in referencing the MAGA agenda, but in a Sept. 1 press conference, White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said the MAGA agenda “is one of the most extreme agendas that we have seen” and those who back it “are threatening political violence, and they are attacking our democracy.”
Analysts have tried to narrow the MAGA wing of the party to those who believe the 2020 election results were rigged in favor of Mr. Biden or who support the rioters at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, who tried to stop Congress from certifying the election results.
For those who support Mr. Trump, the MAGA agenda has nothing to do with those ideas. They say the MAGA agenda calls for stronger border security, lowering the crime rate, and economic policies that create jobs, cut inflation and keep energy abundant and inexpensive.
Republicans are banking on the idea that those issues will be the most important to voters in November.
“Biden calling half the country ‘extremists’ while inflation soars, grocery prices rise and crime skyrockets is not the ‘unity’ that was promised,” said Rep. Jim Jordan, an Ohio Republican and Trump ally. “Joe Biden should quit blaming ‘MAGA Republicans’ and get to working on the economy he ruined.”
• Susan Ferrechio can be reached at sferrechio@washingtontimes.com.
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