Arizona Senate race moved to ‘toss-up’

The Arizona Senate election between Republican Blake Masters and Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly has become a dead heat in recent weeks, according to campaign analysts.

The Cook Political Report shifted the race back to the “toss-up” column after several Democratic internal polls showed a tightening race which was once led by Mr. Kelly by a wide margin.

The move in Arizona is part of a national trend of Republicans gaining momentum in close races that on Nov. 8 will determine which party controls the U.S. Senate.

A new poll of Arizona voters by Data for Progress, a liberal polling firm, shows the race is a dead heat between Mr. Kelly and Mr. Masters, a venture capital executive who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump and financially backed by PayPal co-founder and conservative activist Peter Thiel.

The survey of 893 likely voters in Arizona conducted from Oct. 11 to Oct. 17 showed that 47% would vote for Mr. Kelly and 47% would cast their ballot for Mr. Masters. Just 4% are unsure, and 3% favor Libertarian Marc Victor.

Additionally, the poll found that Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake leads Democratic Katie Hobbs by 4 percentage points.

The conservative Daily Wire-Trafalgar poll conducted from Oct. 16 to Oct. 17 showed Mr. Masters trailing Mr. Kelly by only 1 percentage point.

The new momentum followed a money boost from other GOP Super PAC sources after the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, announced late last month that it was canceling almost $10 million in television ads in Arizona.

Mr. Thiel, Mr. Master’s mentor, pledged an additional $5 million to the race through his Saving Arizona PAC after spending $15 million to help him win the nomination.

According to Federal Election Commission records, Saving Arizona PAC spent $3.7 million on an ad campaign targeting Mr. Kelly, bringing its total spending for the cycle to almost $10.7 million.

Since Labor Day up until recently, Democratic allied organizations and the Kelly campaign have dwarfed GOP-allied groups and the Masters campaign by $44.4 million to $22.7 million. This leaves Mr. Kelly with almost $22 million of hard dollars in his war chest, according to data from AdImpact.

“Given the spending disparity, some Democrats rightly worry about what the race would look like were they not so heavily outspending Masters, underscoring again just how important the fundraising advantage has been across the board for Democrats,” Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor notes. “Kelly outperformed Biden in the state in 2020 by two points, but it was also by a much narrower margin than polling two years ago.”

Ms. Lake’s popularity is also helping bolster Mr. Masters. Signs and billboards across Arizona say, “VOTE LAKE & BLAKE,” and Ms. Lake gives shout-outs to Mr. Masters at her crowded rallies.