OPINION:
Democrats are in trouble. Comments made by President Biden while visiting Portland, Oregon, this past week reinforce problems felt by Democratic candidates across the country. While eating an ice-cream cone, Mr. Biden said: “I’m not concerned about the strength of the dollar. I’m concerned about the rest of the world. Our economy is strong as hell.”
No one but a radical partisan believes that to be true. Americans are hurting. We are paying more for food, gas and housing. We are concerned about public safety and securing the border. Plus, we want parents back in charge of education. This is why Republican candidates are in a great position to regain the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Control of the Senate, however, will come down to a handful of states in very close elections. Of the seats up for election this November, 14 are held by Democrats and 21 by Republicans. Control of the U.S. Senate may boil down to four races considered toss-ups, with a few others barely leaning one way or the other in the final days.
Georgia is one of the “toss-up” states. Incumbent Raphael Warnock has a slight edge over Republican Herschel Walker. Still, Gov. Brian Kemp appears to be on track to defeat Democrat Stacey Abrams again. The size of that margin could have a positive impact on the Senate race.
In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general, has a slight lead over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto. Despite financial advantages and name recognition, the incumbent is suffering from her connection to an unpopular president and a poor economy. Plus, concerns over public safety give a clear advantage to the previous leader of the Nevada Department of Justice.
Many point to concerns over Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s health as the reason for the narrowing of the gap between him and Dr. Mehmet Oz in the race for Senate in the Keystone State. A closer look suggests that drawing attention to Mr. Fetterman’s statements on letting violent criminals out of prison had an impact on voters. An aggressive campaign to let voters know about his record of pulling a shotgun on a black jogger has raised some serious concerns with independent and Democratic voters.
In my home state of Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson is surging at the right time after drawing major attention to Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes’ radical record on crime. Both the Democratic Senate candidate and Gov. Tony Evers support the goal of cutting the prison population in half. That means 10,000 convicted criminals are out on the street.
Mr. Barnes previously supported efforts to eliminate cash bail. A repeat offender out on low-cash bail killed six innocent people in the Waukesha Christmas parade last year. Getting rid of cash bail will likely lead to even more tragic cases like this one in other parts of the state.
Incumbent Mark Kelly is in a tight race with Republican Blake Masters in Arizona. Republican Kari Lake seems to be picking up speed in the race for governor, and that could play a part in the Senate race. The economy, public safety and the border are major issues with voters — and they give an advantage to the Republican candidates.
The projected outcome of the Senate race in New Hampshire leans Democrat, but incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu will likely win in a landslide that could help Donald Bolduc make up ground against Sen. Maggie Hassan. In Colorado, the poor performance of Sen. Michael Bennet could give an opportunity for Joe O’Dea to move up.
The race for Senate in North Carolina leans Republican. While numbers over the summer were concerning, Rep. Ted Budd took a lead over Cheri Beasley once the Democrat was exposed for being a rubber stamp for Mr. Biden and weak on public safety. The economy also continues to be the driving force in this race.
Newcomer J.D. Vance has a slight advantage over Congressman Tim Ryan in Ohio. Even though the Democrat started the campaign with a strong image as a mainstream candidate, his lock-step voting with Speaker Nancy Pelosi has come back to bite him. Gov. Mike DeWine will win by a wide margin, and this should help Republican Vance in the Senate race.
Many of us thought that the prospect of Republicans winning back the majority in the House of Representatives was pretty much a lock, but that doing the same in the Senate was less certain. While it will be close, I am increasingly confident that the GOP will hold majorities in both chambers by January 2023.
The key is focusing on issues that matter to voters: Getting spending under control to improve the economy and lower costs, restoring public safety in our neighborhoods and at the border, and empowering parents and families with choices in education.
• Scott Walker is president of Young America’s Foundation and served as the 45th governor of Wisconsin from 2011 to 2019.
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