OPINION:
Fort Atkinson, Wisconsin — Growing evidence suggests that Democratic congressional and Senate candidates who focused almost exclusively on abortion as their salvation this fall made a bad bet. They found themselves cornered running in a year when their party’s president’s negatives are a real problem and the public was blaming Democrats for inflation and crime. Democrats found themselves searching frantically for a way to change the subject.
Their first thought was to turn the traditional referendum on the president, his party and policies into a referendum on former President Donald Trump. They claimed his minions, this year’s GOP candidates and anyone who supported them represent an existential threat to democracy itself. This played well with their base, but also upset and motivated Republican voters who may or may not have been strong Trump supporters but who were outraged at the charge.
Then came Dobbs v. Jackson overruling Roe v. Wade in June. Democrats from President Biden on down were convinced that the Supreme Court had handed them just what they needed. Focusing on abortion would turn out suburban women in record numbers to save the day. It hasn’t happened.
Many suspect that from the day the Dobbs decision came down, pro-abortion forces and the media were misreading polls by assuming that all or most of the women who claimed abortion was a major issue that would affect their vote were going to vote with Democrats. Women have historically been split on the issue with almost as many describing themselves as “pro-life” as “pro-choice.” In any case, it does not appear that the issue is helping in the way Democratic strategists predicted.
The most recent New York Times/Siena Poll tells the tale. Democrats have not managed to change the subject because most voters remain far more concerned about crime, the economy and inflation, issues that polls confirm Republican candidates are better able to solve. Focusing on Mr. Trump, Jan. 6 or abortion is not driving voters.
Meanwhile, Democratic campaigns continue to focus on abortion with little apparent impact. The 18-percentage-point generic Democratic advantage among independent women in September’s Times/Siena poll has vanished. These same women now favor Republicans by 14 points — a reversal that goes far to explain why the 1-point Democratic lead in September has morphed into a 4-point Republican lead now.
The failure of focusing so single-mindedly on abortion is nowhere clearer than in Wisconsin, where Democrats’ early hopes of ousting Republican Sen. Ron Johnson are crumbling. In early August, Mr. Johnson’s Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, enjoyed a 7-point lead. Mr. Johnson fought his way back to even and last week began pulling ahead. The latest Marquette University poll released on Oct. 5 had Mr. Johnson up by 6 points, and the feeling on the ground is that the race is continuing to move in Mr. Johnson’s direction.
Their campaigns are very different. Mr. Barnes focuses almost exclusively on abortion while Mr. Johnson talks about inflation and crime. The race could tighten up again as Wisconsin races tend to be closer than the latest polls would seem to predict and midterm races are about voter turnout rather than persuasion.
Wisconsin Democrats believe they can still win regardless of the polls because they are better positioned to turn out voters. They may be right. In 2020, much of Mark Zuckerberg’s money went into this state to help turn out Democratic voters in key urban areas. Many credited that effort as the key to presidential candidate Joe Biden’s narrow Wisconsin victory. After that race, the Republican-controlled Wisconsin Legislature passed legislation to prevent private donors from funding such activities, but that legislation was vetoed by Wisconsin’s Democratic governor.
About a week ago, reports broke that Democratic operatives and Milwaukee’s Democratic mayor have launched a similar get-out-the-vote effort in the state’s largest city.
Many Republican activists, stung by what they saw as unfair manipulation of the rules in 2020 and the failure to reform the system, fear the worst. Their fears may be more worrisome than real this year as analysts see signs of a so-called “red wave” over the horizon, but October surprises loom large.
Wisconsin is known for its close races, and in a close race, such efforts can make a difference. Mr. Johnson, however, may be opening up a lead that jiggering with turnout cannot overcome. If the trend continues, Mr. Johnson may not only win another Senate term but could also help another Republican, gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels, upset incumbent Democrat Tony Evers.
• David Keene is editor-at-large at The Washington Times.
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