What to make of the red wave that never materialized?

OPINION:

Rosy predictions Republicans would pick up as many as 35 seats in the House of Representatives and hold a 53-seat majority in the U.S. Senate will not materialize. 

As of Wednesday, it appears the GOP will take the House by a slim majority, with the Senate hanging in the balance as Georgia goes into (another) runoff.

So what happened?

Abortion is more of a salient issue to both women and young voters than many in the GOP realized. In Michigan, it was on the ballot as a Constitutional right. National exit polls conducted by CBS News found 27% of respondents ranked it as the No.1 issue that determined their vote, falling only behind inflation, which 31% of voters prioritized. Unmarried women broke for the Democrats by an astronomical 37 percentage points, according to a CNN National House exit poll.

All four ballot measures to protect abortion rights passed, even in the red state of Kentucky. Democrats flooded the airwaves early with more than $400 million in pro-abortion advertisements, painting Republican candidates (especially those who had a low name ID and were at a money disadvantage) – as extreme on the issue. Although abortion fell from the issue set in the later days of the election, Democrats achieved saturation this summer and maintained that base of support on Election Day.

Additionally, the “woke” youth vote finally turned out in many toss-up races, spurred by ballot measures like the legalization of recreational marijuana, the aforementioned abortion rights, and LGBTQ protections. Republicans never thought they would win the youth vote – they just never estimated how badly they would lose it. According to the CNN exit poll, Republicans won voters aged 45-64 by 11 points and those older than 65 by 13 points but lost those aged 18-29 by a whopping 28 points.

The power of the incumbency also was demonstrated this week – voters wanted to stick with the devil they knew rather than take a risk on the one they didn’t. This helped Republicans in many races, but in contests where they ran political outsiders without an established record, many were defeated.

To be sure, there were many bright spots in Tuesday’s election. Republicans are making considerable inroads with the Hispanic community, including in Florida, Texas, and Nevada. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis rewrote the political map, pulling a 20-percentage point victory over Charlie Crist. Mr. DeSantis has given the GOP a tried-and-true playbook for 2024.

Democrats spent $200 million on perennial losers Stacey Abrams and Beto O’Rourke. Val Demings outraised and outspent Marco Rubio by more than $20 million to little effect. Mark Kelly outraised and outspent Blake Masters by about $60 million dollars, and still, as of this writing, the race is too close to call. Nevada’s Catherine Cortez-Masto may become the only Senate incumbent defeated.

The House Democrats’ campaign chief Sean Patrick Maloney, who pumped millions of dollars meddling in Republican primaries, conceded defeat on Wednesday. He’s the first Democratic campaign chair to lose re-election since 1992 and was beaten, largely, for ignoring New Yorkers’ concerns about crime and the economy.

But most importantly, the GOP will win the House and put an end to Democrats’ control of both Congress and the White House. Mr. Biden is a lame-duck president. 

Normalcy may now rule the day.