Donald Trump giveth, and Joe Biden taketh away.
That is the stark reality facing House Democrats who roared onto the scene as part of the class of 2018.
The blue wave of Trump-fueled antipathy that helped Democrats net more than 40 seats and flip control of the House has morphed into a red wave of visceral discontent with the direction of the country on Mr. Biden’s watch.
Reps. Cynthia Axne of Iowa, Tom Malinowski of New Jersey, Elaine Luria of Virginia and Jared Golden of Maine are among the dozens of Democrats who have gone from romping to victory four years ago to fighting for their political lives this fall. Their uphill battles have been weighed down by Mr. Biden and voter anxiety over inflation, the economy, crime and border security.
The latest round of congressional redistricting also made life more difficult for some Democrats.
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According to Cook Political Report rankings, a whopping 16 House Democrats — including Ms. Luria and Mr. Golden — are running in toss-up races, compared with six incumbent Republicans. Another three House Democrats — including Ms. Axne and Mr. Malinowski — are running in “lean Republican” districts.
It all adds up to what is expected to be a painful reversal of fortune for Democrats and a banner day for Republicans on Tuesday, when Republicans are poised to win control of the House.
Dave Kochel, an Iowa-based Republican Party strategist, said 2018 was a great year for Democrats, who tapped into the anti-Trump sentiment and frustration with the Republican-controlled House.
“So we’re in the exact opposite environment,” Mr. Kochel said.
Indeed, Mr. Biden’s approval rating is underwater. An overwhelming majority of voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction, and they blame the Biden-led Democrats.
The political dynamic comes up in most midterm elections.
Only twice in modern history — during the 1998 and 2002 midterm elections — has the party of the sitting president picked up seats.
Otherwise, they have lost seats.
Vulnerable House Democrats this election cycle hoped abortion could insulate them from voter concerns over inflation and other issues, but polls suggest that is not the case.
The Democrats elected four years ago now have legislative records to defend. In some cases, they include self-inflicted wounds.
In her race against Republican Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District, Ms. Axne has been hurt by her decision to take a family vacation to France in August and have a colleague cast a vote on her behalf for President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.
“It was a bad mistake for Axne to fly to France in the middle of congressional business and a hard political election season,” said Steffen Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State University.
“She might as well have gone to California and dined at the French Laundry.”
Mr. Schmidt was alluding to California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s political trauma after he was caught at a maskless dinner party at the posh French Laundry restaurant despite his strict pandemic lockdown rules.
Ms. Axne has leaned into the issue of abortion by running several ads warning that Mr. Nunn supports an abortion ban without exceptions. Mr. Nunn has focused on inflation and blames Ms. Axne and Mr. Biden for making the problem worse with excessive spending.
Political forecasters give Mr. Nunn, a state senator and an Air Force veteran, the edge in his race with Ms. Axne.
In New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, Mr. Malinowski is considered the underdog in his reelection bout against Tom Kean Jr., a former state senator and the son of a former governor.
Mr. Malinowski defeated Mr. Kean by just over 5,000 voters in 2020, leaving him with little margin for error in this year’s tougher political environment.
He also faces a new challenge. The updated congressional boundaries in the 7th Congressional District made it more Republican.
“Malinowski was the sacrificial lamb offered up when the Democrats’ redistricting plan went awry,” said Ross Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University.
Mr. Baker said stock trades that Mr. Malinowski made during the pandemic and did not properly disclose also have hampered him.
In Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, Ms. Luria also faces redistricting-related challenges in her reelection battle against Republican Jen Kiggans.
“In her two previous elections, Luria ran in a toss-up Hampton Roads district that took in Democratic-leaning precincts on the Peninsula and in Norfolk,” said Mark J. Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. “With redistricting, she lost those friendly precincts.”
Ms. Luria is hoping her work on the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol raises her stock in the eyes of voters.
“But it is not likely that voters in the district will prioritize the congressional investigation over inflation, gas prices and discontent with Democratic leadership in Washington,” Mr. Rozell said.
In Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, Mr. Golden is facing off for a second time against former Rep. Bruce Poliquin.
Mr. Golden defeated the Republican in 2018 and, more than any other House Democrat, has lined up against Mr. Biden’s priorities, including the roughly $2 trillion in proposed spending to expand social safety nets.
Voters will render their verdicts Tuesday on whether keeping Mr. Biden at an arm’s length is enough for Mr. Golden to survive what looks like an all-around tough year for Democrats.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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