OPINION:
He’s in. Former President Donald J. Trump is charging ahead with what would arguably be the greatest political comeback in American history. Despite his die-hard base and record of accomplishments, there are significant challenges on the road ahead. Perhaps foremost among them is expanding his appeal even among Republicans in states he needs to win.
Right now, Mr. Trump’s electoral map is shrinking. Being the underdog may be where he is most comfortable, but there can be no doubt that the task ahead of him is formidable.
Georgia could be off the table for Mr. Trump in 2024. He narrowly lost to President Biden there in 2020, and many Republicans in the Peach State blame the former president for driving down turnout in the 2021 Senate runoff that handed control of the upper chamber to Sen. Chuck Schumer. Republicans were also irked at the former president for manufacturing an unsuccessful primary challenge against Georgia’s popular conservative Republican governor, Brian Kemp, who handily won reelection this month.
Mr. Trump then backed Herschel Walker, apparently without any vetting, bigfooting the Senate primary there that will now likely be viewed as a referendum on the former president. If Mr. Walker loses, that could be another bad sign for Mr. Trump’s prospects in the state.
Must-win Arizona is also a state that may no longer be in play for a Trump third run. Another state that Mr. Trump narrowly lost in 2020, Gov. Doug Ducey, one of the most conservative chief executives in the nation, drew the ire of the former president.
Earlier this year, Mr. Ducey opted not to run for U.S. Senate, a seat he likely could have won, setting up a primary in which 36-year-old novice candidate Blake Masters won running to the far right with Mr. Trump’s endorsement. Mr. Masters advocated a national abortion ban, among other things, and never raised much money. Mr. Trump spent barely a dime on his candidacy.
In the governor’s race, former Vice President Mike Pence, Mr.. Ducey and a host of other GOP luminaries backed a likely winner, Karrin Taylor Robson, against Trump’s hand-picked candidate, Kari Lake. Ms. Lake, a former broadcaster, waged a credible and exciting campaign, but she made election fraud a central issue in her primary race. That was ultimately used against her by Democrats.
The Keystone State of Pennsylvania is also likely a much heavier lift for Mr. Trump this time around after squeaking out a win there in 2016. The expensive, bruising primary between Mehmet Oz and David McCormick took the wind out of the sails of the GOP. Dr. Oz wasn’t a bad candidate, but the primary campaign there allowed the Democrats to define him, husband their resources and irk enough Republicans and swing voters that he ultimately lost the pivotal Philadelphia suburbs.
In Pennsylvania as in Arizona, Mr. Trump barely spent a dime of his massive war chest to help his candidate.
New Hampshire is also likely no longer Trump country. The Granite State’s Republican governor, Chris Sununu, who is no fan of Mr. Trump, won by 15 points this year, even though Mr. Trump lost all but two counties in 2020. A two-time Purple Heart recipient, retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc, won a late primary and, despite coming on strong in the final weeks, received no support from the former president. Why? Because the general was smart enough to pivot on the issue of 2020 election skepticism, a message undoubtedly polling poorly. After his loss, Mr. Trump kicked the war hero when he was down on Truth Social, angering Gen. Bolduc’s supporters.
The former president also hasn’t endeared himself to many folks in Virginia and Florida by downplaying the leadership of Gov. Glenn Youngkin or criticizing Mr. DeSantis. Attacks on the popular chief executives and heads of their respective state Republican parties can weaken the former president’s position in those states not just in a primary but also a general election.
To cap it off, Mr. Trump’s approval ratings with independents, women and college-educated voters continue to be upside down, according to recent polling.
Two years is a long time in politics, and some would say that if anyone can do it, Mr. Trump can. But winning elections isn’t about rallies and echo chambers. It’s about building a coalition of voters that gives you enough electoral votes. The math has to work.
Like many of Mr. Trump’s 2022 candidates recently learned, there’s no win in just winning a primary. Mr. Trump has proved that politics is the art of the possible, but stunning the political world again may be much harder this time.
• Tom Basile is the host of “America Right Now” on Newsmax TV, an author and a former Bush administration official.
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