Republicans will pick up as many as 35 House seats and win control of the Senate with at least 52 seats in next week’s midterm elections, a leading pollster told The Washington Times on Tuesday.
Robert Cahaly, the chief pollster of the Trafalgar Group, said his firm’s polling shows a significant Republican victory and strong turnout among GOP voters.
“Right now you are looking at a House that goes significantly to the Republicans, probably 35 [seats],” Mr. Cahaly said during a livestream “Countdown to the Midterms” discussion hosted by The Times Commentary Editor Kelly Sadler and Online Opinion Editor Cheryl Chumley.
“I expect there’s going to be a big turnout of Republicans. In the Senate, I’d say at least 52, quite possibly 53 [Republican seats].”
The Senate is currently split 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking votes giving Democrats control of the chamber.
Mr. Cahaly said polls are again under-counting the number of likely GOP voters who will turn out. He said the reluctance of some registered Republicans to take part in polls will result in pollsters underestimating the final GOP vote totals by anywhere from 1.5 to 5 percentage points.
“There’s just a lot of people who refuse to take polls. I think every poll will under-estimate Republican turnout, including ours,” he said. “These are Republicans who just will not, for whatever reason, participate [in polls]. They just feel like the government is possibly using polls to make lists of ’MAGA’ Republicans for wider use. If people feel that way, no matter whether right or wrong, they feel that way. And so there’s really no way of measuring it.”
He said there could be surprise GOP wins in Senate races in New Hampshire and even in Washington state, where longtime Democratic Sen. Patty Murray is squaring off against Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley.
• Dave Boyer can be reached at dboyer@washingtontimes.com.
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