OPINION:
While the world’s attention has been justifiably focused on Russia’s barbaric invasion of Ukraine, one big challenge for U.S. intelligence agencies is to not lose sight of a myriad of other wickedly complex threats all across the globe.
In that spirit, let’s not forget about Afghanistan, which following the chaotic U.S. withdrawal last summer has morphed into a full-blown failed terrorist state. Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri remains at large and Islamic State has a significant and growing presence inside the country. On top of that, Taliban-ruled Afghanistan continues to be the world’s opium hub.
Faced with severe shortages of food, water and electricity, combined with a broken education and health care systems, Afghanistan today is deeply vulnerable to exploitation by terrorists.
The Taliban, which has a long history of harboring al Qaeda and other terrorist groups on its territory, has found it impossible to replicate its success as an insurgency now that it is in power. Afghanistan today is awash in ungoverned space, which, we learned from the Sept. 11 attacks, constitutes a significant threat to our homeland.
Afghan acting Minister of Interior Sirajuddin Haqqani was officially designated a global terrorist in 2008 by the State Department, given the Haqqani Network’s alliance with al Qaeda and long history of lethal attacks on innocent Afghan civilians. Today he is one of the most powerful figures in the Taliban regime now in power in Kabul.
Pakistan’s relationship with its erstwhile Afghan Taliban ally has become strained over the sanctuary Kabul is offering to the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), which have carried out ruthless attacks on the civilian population and targeted Pakistan’s nuclear program. That’s more than a touch of bitter irony for the South Asia watchers, who routinely criticized Islamabad for providing a safe haven to Afghan Taliban forces in their 20-year battle with the U.S.-backed Afghan government.
Separately, the Afghan-based branch of ISIS carried out attacks last month against Shi’a Muslims and Taliban members in Mazar-i-Sharif and Kunduz. TTP, which reportedly numbers around 10,000 fighters, has been conducting attacks on Pakistan’s border troops, especially in North Waziristan. The attacks came after Taliban officials in Kabul claimed no militant groups would target other countries from Afghan soil under their administration.
Pakistan has responded by launching strikes on multiple TTP targets in Afghanistan’s Khost and Kunar provinces, with a number of civilians reportedly killed in the crossfire. The Pakistan Taliban wing has been responsible for some of the most deadly attacks in Pakistan including killing over 130 children in a ruthless 2014 attack on a Peshawar school.
The Taliban regime in Kabul is proving itself unwilling to take on TTP or al Qaeda inside its borders, and incapable of subduing Islamic State, increasing the threat to regional stability and to the U.S. homeland.
All of which means alarm bells should be ringing in Congress and the White House over U.S. counterterrorism policy. Increased sectarian violence and terrorist attacks inside Afghanistan serve as a powerful force multiplier for terrorist recruitment efforts.
Afghanistan is now a virtual petri dish for growing threats to the region and beyond. Al Qaeda and Islamic State remain at war with the U.S., even if we have unilaterally withdrawn our intelligence and military forces from Afghanistan.
To make matters worse, effective counterterrorism operations depend on collecting intelligence from human sources. But the CIA must carry on with recruiting spies and stealing secrets without the support from American military bases and an official embassy in Kabul. We also lost our closest ally in the region, the former government of Afghanistan, whose soldiers and intelligence officers bravely fought the Taliban insurgency and terrorists trying to use the country as a base for global operations.
Forget about regional intelligence-sharing or military collaboration, which have been key components of past U.S. global counterterrorism operations. China, Russia and Iran all share a keen interest in Afghanistan and all regard the U.S. as their main enemy. Their focus is on economic predation, not on partnering with Washington even against mutual enemies.
The Biden administration has characterized its new counterterrorism strategy as an “over-the-horizon” operation, a benign-sounding phrase that utterly fails to acknowledge the significant degradation of the resources and relationships that kept our nation safe since 9/11.
Keep in mind the U.S. military has not conducted any counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan since withdrawing our forces. Maybe that’s because the farthest a human being can see is the horizon.
We are in the crosshairs of our adversaries. They will attack us if we fail to collect and act upon early-warning intelligence.
The Biden administration might have thought it concluded an “endless war” last summer when the last U.S. soldier left in August. But Afghanistan has never been more of a clear and present danger to our nation than it is today.
*Due to an editing error, the nations bordering Afghanistan were incorrectly listed in the original version of this column. The mistake has been corrected.
• Daniel N. Hoffman is a retired clandestine services officer and former chief of station with the Central Intelligence Agency. His combined 30 years of government service included high-level overseas and domestic positions at the CIA. He has been a Fox News contributor since May 2018.
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