OPINION:
As many outlets noted prior to the speech, Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s outline of the U.S. strategy toward China contains few surprises. In short, the Biden administration’s China policy fails to offer solutions to effectively manage U.S.-China relations. Instead of a central focus on American interests, the China strategy appears more concerned with ideological competition.
Defining U.S.-China relations as a battle for the global order will raise the risk of conflict and reduce the chance for successful diplomacy.
The United States has a vital interest in avoiding war with China, which could easily go nuclear, especially over potentially perceived — but not real — threats. No one knows for sure if Beijing seeks to become a global hegemon. Based on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “China Dream” vision, regaining a leading role in the Asia-Pacific is the goal. Claiming with certainty that China ultimately seeks to overthrow U.S. global leadership and upturn the global order in its entirety is largely speculation and projection. More research is needed. That will require frank and honest diplomacy with senior Chinese party and state officials, more purposeful track two and track 1.5 dialogues, and a deeper understanding of Chinese world views. Assuming China wants to rule the world will engender constant suspicion and make diplomacy less effective.
The implicit framing of U.S.-China relations as a battle between democracy and authoritarianism also increases the chance of conflict and will reduce diplomacy’s effectiveness. China’s number one vital — or as Beijing calls it “core” — interest is keeping the Chinese Communist Party in power. It will fight to keep its hold on the state.
Washington doesn’t need to like the CCP nor should it. The CCP facilitated the deaths of millions, destroyed traditional Chinese culture and abets human rights abuses. And the United States should openly defend its system of government, protect it from foreign intrusion and enact its values at home. Defending America’s constitutional republic is a vital interest and essential to American identity — it is essential to our existence. But the CCP rules China — with historically consistent high approval ratings according to multiple independent polls — and the United States must deal with it to effectively manage U.S.-China relations and avoid war.
While the Biden administration claims it doesn’t “seek to change China,” Beijing more than likely believes Washington desires to overthrow the CCP. Americans know the costs of regime change wars with poor, weak countries. One with a peer competitor would be even worse. Dropping this rhetoric when it comes to Beijing — implying democracy must win in China — costs Washington nothing.
Despite the previous talk of establishing guardrails to prevent a disastrous conflict, the administration’s China policy appears to largely avoid them. Climate change and health cooperation are not guardrails. China will pursue decarbonization and pandemic responses on its own because they are in its national interest.
On a positive note, Mr. Blinken provided a clearer picture of the U.S. One China Policy — including opposition to Taiwan’s independence and opposition to unilateral changes in the status quo on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. While this may do little to convince Beijing that President Biden’s four previous gaffes were simply misstatements, it is a step in the right direction. Mr. Blinken should order the State Department to issue a more complete statement clarifying the U.S. One China Policy — especially opposition to Taiwan’s independence. Reversing recent changes to State’s website would be a good start.
Washington should take up Mr. Blinken’s words when he called for China to be viewed with realism. The United States should indeed view China through a realist lens, respect — without condoning or promoting — China’s vital interests, and practice restraint. This starts by defining U.S. vital interests in a realist framework with respect to Beijing.
The United States should also understand that increasingly powerful countries want to feel respected and desire recognition. Providing China more room to have a say in the existing global order will do more to convince Beijing of its value than swatting down every proposal.
Certainly, when Chinese interests collide with our own, the United States must push back. But Washington needs to better understand China’s interests, especially its core interests, and why those are considered to be vital. This would go a long way in crafting a successful China policy and managing U.S.-China relations effectively. It would also support a more restrained U.S. foreign policy whereby Washington doesn’t resort to securitizing every issue and press for military posturing. A realist- and restraint-oriented U.S. China policy securing and advancing American interests is possible.
• Quinn Marschik is a contributing fellow at Defense Priorities and the lead Indo-Pacific analyst at a global consulting firm. He was the policy adviser to the deputy undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Department of Labor during former President Donald Trump’s administration.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.