Yuvaraj Sharma typically attends games at FedEx Field a few times each year. The 23-year-old Montgomery County resident knows it’ll usually be an all-day affair. Sure, there’s the three-hour-or-so contest, but then, Sharma says, he spends another 90 minutes or two hours in traffic each way.
So when he heard the news that the Washington Commanders’ next stadium may land in Woodbridge, Virginia — adding even more time to his commute — Sharma said he’s made up his mind that going to see the Burgundy and Gold just wouldn’t be worth it.
“I really don’t feel like they care about their fans at all,” Sharma said of the Commanders. “It’s really upsetting. I know for a fact I wouldn’t go to a game in Woodbridge. They’re barely worth my time and effort now.”
Sharma, of course, doesn’t speak for an entire fanbase. But his sentiment was seemingly common among many who expressed disapproval in wake of the Commanders purchasing an option to buy 200 acres in Woodbridge last week.
Washington’s Maryland fans aren’t the only ones hesitant, either. Virginia lawmakers were expected to vote Wednesday on a bill that would help pave the way for the Commanders’ next stadium to land in the state. But lawmakers in the General Assembly delayed the vote Tuesday, keeping the piece of legislation in a conference committee. Though the bill isn’t dead, the hesitation — and the backlash — underscores the risk owner Dan Snyder faces in moving his struggling NFL franchise even farther away within the team’s market.
If the Commanders do land in Woodbridge, the team would be 23 miles from the U.S. Capitol and hold the third-farthest distance from a city center to a stadium in the NFL. Only the San Francisco 49ers, who play in Santa Clara (42 miles away), and the New England Patriots (28 miles away from Boston) would be farther.
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For a franchise already second-to-last in attendance, experts say a move could alienate the Commanders’ fan base. At the very least, Washington would likely lose some of its Maryland-based fans and replace them with those closer to the Virginia suburbs.
“If you have a rabid fan base, 15 or 25 more minutes [to commute] may not make a big difference,” said Lisa Delpy Neirotti, a sports management professor at George Washington University. “But when your fanbase is not as strong — it’s declining versus increasing — then it makes a big difference.
“That’s just one more obstacle to get people out there.”
Delpy Neirotti said the lack of strong public transportation options to Woodbridge, which doesn’t have a Metro stop, would be a problem for the Commanders, particularly if they want younger fans to attend games. Woodbridge, too, is known for its traffic: Interstate 95 frequently backs up with cars.
To be clear, nothing for the Commanders is finalized. Beyond Woodbridge, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported last week that the team is still attempting to pursue a site in Loudoun County that would put the team closer to its current headquarters in Ashburn. A team source said all three localities — Virginia, Maryland and the District — remain in play for the Commanders’ next home.
Nola Agha, a sports management professor at the University of San Francisco, said teams are often willing to relocate farther away because new stadiums generate more money.
Research shows, she said, that teams tend to see an attendance bump for several years because of the excitement that comes from a new building. When the 49ers moved to Santa Clara, for instance, San Francisco went from averaging 69,732 in its final season at Candlestick Park to more than 70,000 for the next four seasons.
In the 49ers’ case, Agha noted that the Santa Clara stadium actually is closer to the wealthier portion of San Francisco’s fan base. That allowed the 49ers to retain a large portion of their current fans, even though they moved farther from the city center.
“There’s always going to be somebody who’s unhappy about the new system,” Agha said. “The reality is that teams gain fans and lose fans all the time. … If you lose some paying fans, that’s fine. You’re going to replace them. That’s the whole business model for a professional team.”
To that point, there were some fans who expressed excitement over the Commander’s possible move to Virginia. Josh Kirby, a 23-year-old from Stephen City, Virginia, said his commute would be cut down by roughly 30 minutes if Washington moved to Woodbridge. Woodbridge would perhaps allow for the Commanders to attract fans from Richmond — where the team has held its training camp — as well.
But the 49ers’ comparison isn’t a perfect one. For one, the 49ers were coming off three straight playoff appearances by the time they moved into Levi’s Stadium. And the franchise hasn’t suffered the reputation decline that Washington seems to have. Unlike San Francisco, Washington also plans to downsize as its next stadium is projected to have only 60,000 seats (down from a capacity of 67,617).
There’s another aspect that the Commanders may have to consider: If the team leaves Landover, would that pave the way for fans in the area to start supporting the Baltimore Ravens?
George Perry, a sports business professor at George Mason University, said that question was on his mind the other day. Perry, who used to work for the Burgundy and Gold as a marketing executive, said the Commanders face that risk if the next stadium lands in the commonwealth.
“I remember when (the stadium) moved from D.C. to FedEx Field. … I remember thinking, ‘Wow, that seems a lot further, I may be less likely to go to games,’” Perry said. “I got to believe the reverse is happening, that there’s a lot of Maryland fans going, ‘Wow, do I really want to go down to Virginia?’”
• Matthew Paras can be reached at mparas@washingtontimes.com.
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