No more oil for blood

OPINION:

Russian strongman Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked attack on neighboring Ukraine has the global order on edge in ways it has not experienced since John F. Kennedy was president. With it, the post-Cold War period has ended. A new era has begun.

How it will turn out is anyone’s guess. In the best of cases, the surprising resistance shown by the Ukrainians will be sufficient to tie down the Russian invaders until the primary threat — Russian President Vladimir Putin himself — is removed from office. On the other end, the long-feared destruction of both East and West in a matter of minutes once commonplace in the lives of those born before 1989 could come to pass.

For now, as things work themselves out, we are fortunate to see the Western powers rally to Ukraine’s side. There are hurdles and roadblocks yet to be overcome but, to a man and woman, Europe’s leaders have accepted that the Russian bear is again awake after a prolonged period of hibernation and is both hungry for power and ready to expand its territory.

The strategy to counter Mr. Putin’s latest effort in his campaign to restore greater Russia to its former glory is still in development. Militarily, Ukraine is largely on its own. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his people are making a brave stand in their homeland’s defense but cannot depend on the rest of Europe or the United States to join in the fight. That so many nations are otherwise willing to supply the arms and ammunition needed to do what must be done is a welcome sign but, for now, at least, it’s probably all they are going to get.

The West can still apply meaningful pressure by choking off Russia’s access to the global economy until the people begin to feel the pinch. There are already reports of mass demonstrations in protest of the war occurring in Moscow and St. Petersburg and other cities. Russian mothers and fathers are not willing to see their only sons and daughters sacrificed on the altar of Mr. Putin’s territorial ambitions. That’s an opportunity of which the West must take advantage.

The unstoppable flow of information coming across the internet makes it impossible for Mr. Putin’s apparatchiks to keep the truth from the people as they did for so many years following the invasion of Afghanistan. It should be used to turn the Russian people against him.

The West must also use unrelenting, crushing economic pressure to push the Russians out of Ukraine and to incentivize the people to push Mr. Putin out of Russia. Targeting the oligarchs is the right move. They may have achieved their power as the result of Mr. Putin’s largess. Now that he has put it all at risk, they owe him nothing. They are open — or should be — to a campaign intended to persuade them it’s time for him to go.

In furtherance of this, Russia must remain commercially isolated. America and the world’s other democracies who are, not coincidentally, the biggest energy consumers must, no matter how painful it might be in the short run, refuse to purchase vital minerals and energy from Mr. Putin — who’s using the revenues they bring to his regime to finance his war.

It’s an interesting thing. When the price of oil rises on the world market, Mr. Putin starts making moves. He knows where his real money comes from. It’s not from the Russian economy. It’s from the sale of vital energy resources to needy nations willing to overlook his desire to create a geographic buffer against the West to keep their cars and trucks running.

It’s time to say no more. We should not be in the business of exchanging exchange Ukrainian blood for Russian oil. If Mr. Putin isn’t stopped now, his next cross-border adventure may bring him into conflict with NATO, at which point military action by the United States would be in order. The world must choose now between freedom and aggression, between democracy and autocracy, and between the global order as it exists — imperfect though it may be — and a new order that belongs to the strong and the brash.