OPINION:
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is acting more like a madman than a strongman. The Western world, in unusual fashion, is largely united in opposition to his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Putin is being marginalized, and though his energy revenue remains largely untouched, the damage from the Ukraine war, whether he ultimately takes over the whole country or not, will be longstanding.
All this means communist China’s President Xi Jinping just solidified his position atop the new bipolar global construct with the West on one side and the New Axis authoritarians on the other.
Presumably, the invasion of Ukraine didn’t come as a surprise to Mr. Xi, given the growing strength of the Russia-China alliance. That, however, doesn’t mean that from a military or diplomatic standpoint, the Chinese thought it was a good idea for Moscow.
To triumph over Western interests, with our dialogue, democracy and division, China knows that the New Axis must have one undisputed leader. This is not to say that Russia won’t add weight to the bloc, but like any mob operation, there can only be one boss. Mr. Putin’s potential miscalculation on Ukraine is turning Mr. Xi from the genocidal heir to the legacy of Mao Zedong to looking more like a statesman on the world stage.
It’s pretty simple, really. Let the other guy look worse, so you don’t come off as bad.
China’s nuclear deal with Ukraine also opens the door for them to possibly broker what they could frame as a peace deal. In one felled swoop, the communist Chinese would solidify their position as the more reliable international partner and assure their supremacy over Russia in the authoritarian alliance.
Whether this was a calculated move is anyone’s guess, but it doesn’t matter. If Mr. Xi helps stop the bloodshed in any way, it will send a clear message to nations in China’s growing orbit that they can trust Beijing more than they can trust Washington. It would be masterful and achieve one of the principal goals of all these moves: challenging the U.S. as the dominant world power.
It’s plausible. If Mr. Putin doesn’t take a scorched earth approach to conquer the people of Ukraine, he may have to settle for a deal. That could also work out well for Mr. Xi and the Chinese Communist Party.
Russia gets to keep its new republics within Ukraine’s border and avoids a quagmire or expending resources to rebuild an obliterated country with 44 million people. Mr. Putin grows more reliant on Beijing, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy comes out as a hero, and China gets the win.
The Russian bear then plays second fiddle to the red dragon in the New Cold War.
That might not sit well with Mr. Putin, but it is becoming a political, economic and military necessity. In Russia, China will gain a geopolitical actor willing to play the bad guy, as long as Beijing helps stop any fallout. Like the Iranians, willing to use their terror networks to continually destabilize nations and occupy the attention of the West, Russia could be a useful tool to distract powers that often have a hard time walking and chewing gum at the same time.
The use of Russia by the China-dominated alliance in this way could set up a powerful multifront disruption strategy brought to bear by the new authoritarian bloc. China continues buying influence. Iran’s nuclear ambitions and Islamic terrorist networks continue to create flashpoints. North Korea keeps the West guessing about its capabilities and intentions. Socialist Venezuela, with the world’s largest proven oil reserves, becomes the gas can for the new, anti-Western bloc. Russia disrupts with cyber capabilities, hybrid warfare tactics and military incursions.
So much remains new in this new world order. But one thing is certain — the authoritarians are working to drive greater power and influence with China now firmly in the lead. For the United States and its allies, the question, therefore, is simple — “what’s our plan?”
• Tom Basile is the host of “America Right Now” on Newsmax Television an author and former Bush administration official.
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