OPINION:
As the third week of the invasion draws to a close without any real Russian victories, and a swift and decisive military victory promised by Russian President Vladimir Putin is nowhere to be found, one can’t help but wonder, what’s his plan now? While it’s impossible to know for sure what happens in the Kremlin behind closed doors, certain assumptions can be drawn from official responses to current events.
As thousands of Russian civilians are arrested for anti-war sentiments, and the Russian economy decimated by harsh Western sanctions, every day feels more and more like a return to the final moments preceding the collapse of the Soviet Union. Dissent crushed under the boot of authoritarianism, pensions not worth the paper they’re printed on, and empty shelves at the grocery stores are the realities facing the Russian people today.
The Russian military, eager to deliver the victory their leader demands, are increasing their assault on civilians in Ukraine, hoping to break the fighting spirit of the defiant nation. But despite ramping up the indiscriminate bombing of civilian centers over the past three weeks, the capture of Kherson, and the blockade of Mariupol, Ukraine’s two largest cities Kyiv and Kharkiv stand free. With airstrikes now happening as close as 12 miles from Poland’s borders, Mr. Putin’s intentions are clear – Russia will go as far as the West will allow.
One can’t help but wonder what will happen if Kyiv falls – Does anyone really believe that Mr. Putin’s army will turn around and go home? That the allied fighters he mustered from all over the world are only in Europe for a few weeks? If NATO does not unite and defend its borders proactively, a border crisis where underequipped and underprepared NATO troops must rush to meet the gathering and battle-hardened Russian fighters on Poland’s borders is not outside the realm of possibility. When both Mr. Putin and Mr. Lavrov claimed Russia would not attack Ukraine, they managed to fool the world once. Shame on us, if they manage to fool us again. In fact, this scenario bears a striking similarity to the appeasement of Hitler in Munich in 1938. We are once again being given a choice between war and dishonor.
Every week the West wastes arguing over how to best defend the integrity of the European continent, Mr. Putin gets stronger. Will Poland supply MiG-29s or not? NATO must unite behind a strong message backed by credible force – any attack on a NATO ally WILL be met with swift and harsh justice. Words alone are not enough. Deploying defensive forces on NATO’s borders with Russia can act as a deterrent for aggression. The threat of retaliation for attacking a NATO member-state should be so great that even a madman would not dare take on such a risk. Vulnerable NATO countries should not be put in a position where they have to reinforce defensive positions under a hail of Russian artillery.
Mr. Putin wants the West to believe he has his finger on the nuclear button, but his actions don’t support that message. Nuclear war would be suicide and Mr. Putin is not behaving like a suicidal man. Two years of intense lockdown, the theatrical social distance during meetings with foreign politicians, hiding his yacht from sanctioned seizure in Germany – these are not the actions of someone with nothing to lose.
No, to believe Mr. Putin is a suicidal madman would be to underestimate a man who managed to stay in power for two decades. Every move is calculated, with Ukraine now serving as Mr. Putin’s hostage – this is what happens when you oppose me– is the Kremlin’s message. The Russian propaganda machine is firing on all cylinders to drum up justification for the war, its message constantly evolving. When nobody bought the denazification narrative, the propagandists fluidly pivoted to wild theories of US bioweapon labs – the articles already cropping up in the usual “alternate news” publications, sandwiched between antivax and anti-NATO propaganda, to be picked up and parroted on Twitter armies of bots.
This war is the culmination of almost two decades of political effort – Mr. Putin is redrawing the global security landscape, and without NATO’s vociferous commitment to the security of its members, it is my belief that Russia may not stop with Ukraine. The Russian army would gladly march on Warsaw, Chisinau, and the Baltic sea if Mr. Putin believes the reward outweighs the risks. Europe and the US must show Putin that NATO is strong and united and that threats are not taken lightly.
• David Zaikin is co-Founder of Key Elements Group. Born in Ukraine and based in London and a graduate of London Business School. Zaikin is an experienced strategic advisor to a number of leading multinational brands, current and former leaders and NGOs.
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