OPINION:
The more protracted Russia’s war with Ukraine, the more catastrophic it will become.
Undoubtedly, the Ukrainians have fought fiercely, won hard-contested battles, and have stalled Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assault on their nation of about 40 million people. Mr. Putin miscalculated when he thought he could advance on the independent country and overcome it swiftly. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has become an international hero for standing up to Mr. Putin with resolve and determination.
Mr. Putin has bombed maternity wards, and his rockets have killed innocent women, babies, and children. Journalists have been injured, an American was shot and killed by Russian forces. More than 2.8 million refugees have fled Ukraine, leaving behind their of-age sons and husbands to fight. Mr. Putin controls Ukraine’s separatist east, is circling Kyiv and Ukraine’s second largest-city Kharkiv, has taken control of Europe’s largest nuclear power station and has even hinted at using chemical weapons against civilians.
But none of this constitutes a red line for the Biden administration. The only red line Mr. Biden has drawn against Mr. Putin is the enforcement of the Article 5 mutual defense pledge if a NATO country is attacked. None has been so far.
Mr. Biden has slow-walked lethal aid to Ukraine, denied them the transfer of MIG-29 jets from Poland, ruled out U.S. ground troops and a NATO-enforced no-fly zone – all vital for the Ukrainian forces to go on the offense. On Sunday, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Russia would “pay a severe price” if it were to launch a chemical weapons attack in the country. No other details were given.
For these reasons alone, Mr. Zelenskyy should surrender.
Yes, he’s been brave and his troops have shown skill, but his citizens are dying and he’s fighting a war he cannot win alone. Other than small arms, anti-tank and anti-aircraft artillery — which can prolong but will not win a war — no other military assistance has been provided by the international community.
Although likely disappointed with his military’s slow advance, Mr. Putin has shown no mercy toward the Ukrainian people. He likely views Ukrainian civilians as troops given Mr. Zelenskyy’s call to arm every man, woman and child in the country. Mr. Putin, even with his setbacks, has shown resolve to bring the Ukrainian state to its knees, and will not stop until he can claim victory for Russia.
Mr. Putin has been clear in his demands: He wants to seize the separatist east of Ukraine, which he already controls; incorporate Crimea, a territory he laid claim to in 2014, fully into the Russian Federation; and force Ukraine to alter its constitution to declare it will never become part of NATO.
Mr. Zelenskyy should concede.
In order for Ukraine to reclaim the independent east and Crimea, it needs to go on the offensive – something it’s not capable of in its current dug-in positioning. As for joining NATO, Kyiv only made that a foreign policy priority in 2017. At that time, international scholars projected that the nation would not qualify for membership for at least another 20 to 25 years. Ukraine lacked (and still lacks) the reformed legal, economic and anti-corruption systems needed to qualify for NATO membership. It also lacked (and still lacks) the defensive posturing needed to contribute to the alliance. Many NATO countries worry that Ukrainian membership would detract from the alliance’s security, not add to it.
Unless Mr. Putin is mad — about which there’s been much debate — he doesn’t want to seize control of all of Ukraine. The Ukrainians have shown their will to be independent. If Mr. Putin is logical, he will settle for a weaker, smaller, neutral Ukraine as a buffer zone separating his country from the West, while laying claim to large portions of it. Mr. Putin could walk away with a win and spare hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives. It’s likely European sanctions would then be dropped, giving a lifeline to his country and an economic path forward.
It could be just as likely that Mr. Putin is irrational, rejects the deal, and tries to seize all of Ukraine, regardless of the death and devastation he inflicts.
In that case, it will become clear to the international community exactly what the Russian leader intends. That knowledge then may force the Biden administration into more aggressive action – and make laughable the policy of doing nothing so as to not “escalate” tensions with Russia.
Either way, the world deserves to know.
For that to happen, Mr. Zelenskyy must surrender, and the U.S. — not Israel, Turkey or France — needs to broker the truce.
• Kelly Sadler is the commentary editor at The Washington Times.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.