Projections for 2022

OPINION:

With Yogi Berra’s cautionary note in mind, let’s think about the coming year.

Sen. Joe Manchin III, West Virginia Democrat, will eventually vote for something terrible, probably an extension of the child tax credit with some means testing and no meaningful work requirements. The important thing for progressives is that free cash for children is established, which means testing will become attenuated over time.

Energy tax credits for sources that we don’t control and can’t turn on and off as needed (wind, solar) will be included. The rest of Build Back Better is unlikely to happen.

The New York Yankees will not win the World Series (again), which will extend their drought to 13 years, the longest in franchise history. It will also mean that they would have only won one World Series in the last 22 years, again, the worst such stretch in franchise history. The general manager (Brian Cashman) will not be fired.

Inflation will continue to erode the value of wages and savings. Expect an annual rate of at least 7%.

Gasoline prices will moderate a bit by mid-year, as supply catches up with demand. Team Biden will take credit, despite deserving none.

The Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl. The University of Michigan will not win the NCAA football championship.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York will conclude that she would rather have Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer as her personal marionette than be a senator and will not challenge him for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat from New York.

In the November elections, the Republicans will take the majority in the House (with about 255 seats) and the Senate (with about 52 seats). Because of candidate deficiencies, it is possible that the Republicans lose Senate races in Missouri and Georgia (again) that they should win, which will limit the scope of the victory.

While winning federal elections, the Republicans, who now hold a 27-23 advantage in governorships, will manage to lose two (net) of the 36 gubernatorial races being held in 2022, in part, because of primaries (Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona) constructed or encouraged by Team Trump.

Former President Donald Trump’s aura of inevitability will be dimmed by his endorsements, some of whom will lose, and some of whom will embarrass themselves and, by extension, their patron.

Olivia Rodrigo will win Best New Artist at the Grammys (as she should).
  
After the midterm elections, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will announce her retirement. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries will step in as the Democratic leader in the House.
 
As always, weakness is provocative. Either Russia or China, or both, will accelerate their international hooliganism.

After the midterm elections, President Biden will announce that he is not running for president. In anticipation of this, potential candidates for the nomination will begin to make themselves obvious no later than the third quarter of 2022.

Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii will run for president. She deserves thoughtful consideration.

The New York Giants, a proud franchise with eight NFL championships, will lose at least 12 games in 2022, which will place them in contention (currently tied with the Jets) for the worst cumulative record in the NFL since 2017. Ownership will make no material changes.

In a decision that will cause political discomfort (especially among Democrats), the Supreme Court will find that Roe v. Wade was overly broad and send abortion back to the states to decide. About 40 states will pass legislation pretty quickly protecting the unborn or ratifying the general approach of Roe.

Despite the propaganda, growth in global sales of SUVs will be greater than the growth in global sales of electric vehicles.

The NCAA swimming finals in March will be overwhelmed by questions about the fairness of allowing a biological male (University of Pennsylvania’s Lia Thomas) to compete as a woman.

The public health community will acknowledge that the “vaccines” are not in fact “vaccines” that preclude transmission or uptake of the virus, but rather are therapeutics. At some point, that might lead to people being rational about a highly contagious respiratory virus that, eventually, is going to infect everyone.

Culture will continue to be upstream of politics and will continue to trump economics. As a result, the next elected president of the United States will be the man or woman who can and will most energetically and effectively defend the traditions, institutions and norms of the country.

For reasons known only to him, God will continue to love us and share his blessings with us.

May the new year be a happy and healthy one for you, your families and your loved ones.

• Michael McKenna, a columnist for The Washington Times, is the president of MWR Strategies. He was most recently a deputy assistant to the president and deputy director of the Office of Legislative Affairs at the White House.