Senate GOP sees path to majority, treads carefully for fear of stumble with suburban voters

Republicans are strategizing how not to derail what looks like an increasingly likely Senate takeover in November, carefully weighing how to get critical suburban voters who abandoned the party in 2020 but have since soured on Democrats over rising crime and inflation.

A top concern among some GOP lawmakers is the party’s response to the ongoing investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S Capitol, which has split Republicans and in particular GOP leaders who want to focus the upcoming election on the failures of President Biden and congressional Democrats.

“Let’s keep our eye on the ball,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Kentucky Republican, said Tuesday.

Divisions in the party are making it difficult.

The Republican National Committee last week angered some in the party by voting to censure the two GOP lawmakers serving on a House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack.

In the resolution censuring Republican Reps. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois and Liz Cheney of Wyoming, the RNC accused them of “participating in a Democrat-led persecution of ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate political discourse.”

The censure and wording of the resolution drew backlash not only from Democrats who label the attack an insurrection, but also from many Republicans who balked at legitimizing the violent storming of the Capitol that forced lawmakers to flee for safety.

Some GOP lawmakers worry it will make it more difficult for the party to regain the support of suburban voters, particularly women, who helped tip 2020 to Mr. Biden and are likely to play an outsized role this year in deciding who runs the Senate.

“It could not have been a more inappropriate message,” Sen. Mitt Romney, a Utah Republican, former Massachusetts governor and 2012 GOP presidential nominee, told reporters at the Capitol. “One, to sanction two people of character as they did, but number two, to suggest that a violent attack on the seat of democracy is legitimate political discourse is so far from accurate as to a shock and make people wonder what we’re thinking.”

Mr. Romney’s criticism was particularly notable because RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel is his niece.

Currently, pollsters and election analysts see a viable path for the GOP to win back the majority in the Senate, which is now split evenly.

Republicans want voters to tie a national crime wave, high inflation, rising energy prices and pandemic woes to the Democrats. They also want to avoid the distraction of GOP infighting and other party fumbles.

The task is made more difficult by the divide over former President Donald Trump’s role in the party.

While some Republicans continue to embrace Mr. Trump as their leader, others want the party to move on without him.

Mr. Trump has inserted himself in the midterms by making endorsements in dozens of races and by criticizing top GOP leaders, including Mr. McConnell, for failing to back his claim that the election was stolen by Mr. Biden.

In an interview on CNN, Mr. Kinzinger, who is not seeking reelection, criticized the RNC for refusing to reject Trump.

“Conservatism is no longer about what you actually believe, it’s about how intensely you’re loyal to Donald Trump,” he said.

The divide threatens to trip up Republicans in their quest to take back Congress.

“When voters are frustrated with the direction of the country with Democrats in charge, the best thing for Republicans to do is stay out of the spotlight,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections, which analyses races. “The more Republicans punish their own over Jan. 6 or the more Trump interjects himself in the conversation, the more it complicates the GOP effort to win the majorities.”

Republicans are eager to win back suburban voters, particularly women, who flipped back to the GOP in the Virginia gubernatorial race in November.

Party leaders hope to model their strategy after Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe in part by winning back those suburban voters who left the party in 2020.

Mr. Youngkin, who won 53% of the suburban vote, managed to avoid getting tangled in the Trump debate and instead focused on kitchen table concerns like inflation, education and the enduring COVID-19 mandates.

Senate Republicans are eyeing a similar path to victory.

“The off-year election will be a referendum on the performance of this all-Democratic government,” Mr. McConnell said. “I’m highly optimistic that we’re going to have a very good year this fall.”