OPINION:
Washington’s national security establishment had some 20 years to develop a counterstrategy to Russia that would project strength and deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from doing things like invading Ukraine. Instead, we tried to make Russia our friend. That was not smart, and it now appears Russia will attack its neighbor and perhaps draw us into war too.
Most of Washington’s cognoscenti are stunned at the ferocity with which Mr. Putin is fighting to resubjugate former Soviet Ukraine, risking an “all-out” war with the U.S. to resolve once and for all who, Moscow or Washington, will call the shots in what Russia views as its backyard. Secretary of State Antony Blinken best expressed the confusion among U.S. national security honchos.
“It’s not clear what Russia’s central demand is,” he said this month. It is deeply troubling that those charged with safeguarding our security and deterring war, especially with key nuclear-armed opponents like Russia and China, haven’t done their homework.
While serving during the Obama presidency as a senior analyst for Russian Doctrine & Strategy at the Defense Intelligence Agency, my colleagues and I briefed countless top officials in the Pentagon and NATO, heads of U.S. combatant commands, and Congressional and White House staff on the Russian threat to Europe and the United States. Alas, the Obama-Biden crew must have slept through our “deep dives” on Mr. Putin and Russia. Here’s a refresher.
Humiliated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia is now ready for revenge. Make no mistake: Russia believes it is already, in a sense, at war with America.
Mr. Putin exploited is the naivete of Washington leaders. In the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991, Americans envisioned a future of friendship and cooperation with Russia. Surely, as the hostile communist threat to America ended, Russia would embrace democracy and even join NATO. That was the conventional wisdom. But the “wise” were not paying attention.
Mr. Putin frequently publicly decried the demise of the Soviet Union. The Kremlin’s perception of America as its main adversary never changed. While the U.S. deprioritized Russia as a security threat and slashed intelligence resources dedicated to the target, Moscow’s spies have continued to steal U.S. secrets at the same vigorous pace they always have.
In the late 1990s, Moscow launched a multiyear cyber espionage operation nicknamed “Moonlight Maze” by U.S. investigators. Vast amounts of critical, secret data were stolen from our military, government and civilian networks. Since then, Russia has developed a formidable and stealthy cyber arsenal that rivals America’s. Russian cyber intelligence operatives wage relentless attacks on U.S. businesses, banks, think tanks and critical infrastructure facilities, penetrating every major government agency, including the Pentagon, the State Department, and the White House. We have yet to secure our networks and develop an effective deterrence and response strategy.
The Washington security establishment continued to sleep at the wheel even after Mr. Putin openly declared a state of conflict with the United States during the Munich Security Conference in 2007. Mr. Putin vociferously denounced the United States and NATO in an inflammatory keynote speech. Russia formalized the state of hostility in 2010 by designating, in the release of its second post-Soviet military doctrine, the United States and NATO as its primary security threat. Moscow further codified this “threat” in every single foreign policy and military planning document that requires approval by the Russian president himself.
Mr. Putin invaded Georgia in 2008, took over Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014, and destabilized Europe with cyber strikes and covert influence operations. Regardless, the Obama-Biden crew, just like every single U.S. president since the breakup of the Soviet Union, were vigorously pushing a wishful-thinking “reset” policy with Russia. Paranoid that America was working to bring about Russia’s collapse through a “color revolution” and realizing that Washington will not permit him to implement his grand vision of Russian domination of its “sphere of influence,” Mr. Putin concluded that war with America is inevitable.
On July 23, 2013, Putin approved a top-secret war plan, developed on his orders. Bearing an unassuming name, “Plan for Strategic Containment and Conflict Prevention,” this was Russian strongman’s “insurance” to repel U.S. and NATO forces in the event they intervened on behalf of Ukraine.
As Mr. Putin was implementing an unprecedented military modernization worth $650 billion, which included hypersonic missiles, lasers and other satellite-killer type weapons, and other stealthy “non-lethal” technologies, the Washington experts continued to ignore the looming threat. The skeptics in the national security establishment continued to crow in unison, minimizing the danger: Mr. Putin is delusional, the Russian economy is the size of Italy’s, and Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country. But Russia has never been economically strong and yet always fielded military and weaponry second only to the United States.
Every war game that I participated in that simulated a U.S.-Russia conflict resulted in the “Blue” forces — that’s us — losing, further demonstrating Washington’s lack of strategy to counter Russia. President Biden’s recent assurances to Mr. Putin that America will not intervene militarily, even if Russia attacks Ukraine, suggest that Blue still has homework to do to beat Red.
Having refused to see what has been staring them in the face, the Washington “experts” failed to architect a viable and timely deterrent against a key opponent. They bear full responsibility for their strategic incompetence, which brought us to this perilous moment.
• Rebekah Koffler is a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer and currently a strategic intelligence analyst with The Lindsey Group. She is the author of “Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America.”
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