OPINION:
As the invasion drags on and the bodies pile up, it is clear that the swift, decisive victory Russian President Vladimir Putin hoped for hasn’t materialized. Kyiv continues to stand defiantly as the capital of freedom in Eastern Europe. Russian forces already lost more men in this conflict than America has throughout its two-decade-long Afghanistan campaign. Russian troops have been knocked back at every major city they tried to take; Kyiv, Kharkiv and others have all repelled the Russian invasion. The entire world has turned its back and closed its doors to Russia. Is it time for Putin’s reality check, or will his descent to madness continue?
For all the damage done, Mr. Putin’s actions led to one positive – Europe is now more united than ever, and the world’s response to Russian aggression has been swift and harsh. The Russian ruling elite and people have been sanctioned very harshly to deter the nation from continuing this war. Of course, had the sanctions been introduced earlier, it is possible the invasion could have been prevented, but debating hypotheticals rarely proves productive.
Indeed, the West’s initially toothless response to Russian troop buildup on Ukraine’s borders was seen by Mr. Putin as tacit support. An eight-year history of ineffective sanctions and indecisive half-measures have informed Mr. Putin’s decision-making process. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, “Well, we’re used to [sanctions]. We know that sanctions will be imposed anyway […] With or without reason,” which shows that to some extent, the risk taken was calculated. A large-scale land invasion was Mr. Putin’s way of saying “negotiations are over.” He believed that his enemy was divided and unable to mount an effective defense. The global response told him that Ukraine was his for the taking.
Before, it was easy to say, “Putin is simply posturing. He would never brazenly invade a sovereign European nation.” We had hoped that reason would triumph, and this battle could be won at the negotiation table without a single shot being fired. With an invasion, it is unclear if Mr. Putin will stop in Ukraine. Depending on the NATO response to this crisis, Russian forces may feel emboldened to push onto neighboring Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, in a blitz of territorial “reclamation,” in the hopes of capturing as much territory as possible before allies have a chance to mobilize a defensive force.
Some experts doubt Mr. Putin would be willing to risk invading a NATO ally. However, it is important to remember why Europe is so hesitant to sanction Russia in the first place. Any long-term sanctions implemented by the European Union are currently unsustainable as the EU relies heavily on Russian oil and gas. Over 25% of Germany’s primary energy use in 2021 was natural gas, of which Russian pipeline gas accounted for 32%. For Germany and others, the road to diversification will be long and expensive.
In the meantime, Germany can’t rely on short-term Liquid Natural Gas shipments as there are currently no operating LNG terminals in the country. 2026 is the earliest Germany could possibly begin to receive LNG shipments due to construction delays. That’s four long, cold winters that Germans will face as Europe scrambles to find a replacement for the cheap Russian gas they have long enjoyed.
Mr. Putin’s weaponization of energy should be a wake-up call for the rest of Europe. Decades of fear of nuclear power stem almost entirely from the Chernobyl disaster, which ironically took place in Ukraine in 1986. Nuclear power does not come without risks, but at present, those risks seem to outweigh the dangers of relying on Mr. Putin for heat in the winter. Europe is learning what the French already know – there is no sovereignty without energy independence.
The Soviet regime was not kind to my family. My Grandfather was arrested in 1948 when my mother was just three. My mother and grandmother were sent to Siberia as a family of an “Enemy of the State,” where they were forced to remain until Stalin’s death in 1953. I was lucky enough to escape to Canada with my immediate family in 1990, just as the Union was collapsing. I have very few positive memories of the soviet system and never thought I would live long enough to see its return. I just spoke to some friends who live in Kyiv. They echo my sentiments, having armed themselves with the expectation of defending the city from Russian paratroopers and the regime that Putin threatens to reintroduce.
For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis, the world is on the brink of potential nuclear war. The history books will forever remember Mr. Putin and the other tyrants who attempted to conquer Europe. For this conflict to be resolved quickly and without any more unnecessary bloodshed, Mr. Putin will need to come to the negotiation table without conditions and be ready to compromise.
The best way to ensure that Ukraine can be protected would be to fast-track them to EU membership and introduce a no-fly zone over the country. Since Mr. Putin’s quick victory is not materializing, the question of what comes next is becoming increasingly present in people’s minds. This conflict cannot be allowed to drag out. In the end, Freedom and Democracy always prevail, and those who attempt to undermine the sanctity of these principles will be met with the same fate as those who tried before them.
- David Zaikin is Co-Founder of Key Elements Group. Born in Ukraine and based in London, and a graduate of London Business School. Zaikin is an experienced strategic advisor to a number of leading multinational brands, current and former leaders and NGOs
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