The 2022 primary cycle kicks off Tuesday in Texas, where voters are getting their first taste of new voting laws and a first crack at sending a message to their parties.
The results are expected to set the table for a high-profile gubernatorial battle between Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the general election this fall, help decide the fates of the state’s newly drawn 38 congressional districts and serve as a barometer for the political climate eight months out from the midterm elections.
Attorney General Ken Paxton will get a chance to show that his legal battles and personal scandals mean less to voters than his willingness to fight for hard-right causes and defend former President Donald Trump.
A closely watched congressional battle is playing out between Rep. Henry Cuellar, the most conservative House Democrat, and far-left challenger Jessica Cisneros in southwest Texas.
If no candidate receives the majority of the vote Tuesday, the top two advance to a head-to-head May 24 runoff race, where the electorate would likely be smaller and more partisan.
Political analysts say turnout could be lower than in previous cycles because of confusion over the new congressional maps and state voting laws that were enacted in the wake of Mr. Trump’s claims of a stolen election in 2020. As a result of the new laws, thousands of mail-in ballots and applications have already been rejected and returned to voters.
Governor
Facing a challenge from his right flank in the Republican primary, Mr. Abbott is looking to silence his critics with a strong showing in the nomination fight.
Polls show Mr. Abbott with a comfortable lead over his closest competitors, former Rep. Allen West and former state Sen. Don Huffines.
Mr. West, a retired Army lieutenant colonel, served as Texas Republican Party chairman before stepping down from the post and entering the race.
Mr. Trump’s endorsement has helped shield Mr. Abbott from his primary rivals, who have criticized his response to the pandemic and border security.
Mr. Abbott appears to be on a crash course with Mr. O’Rourke, the clear-cut favorite to win the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial nomination.
Mr. O’Rourke ran a stronger than anticipated race against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018. He tried to parlay that successful showing into a bid for the White House in 2020, but his campaign flamed out fast.
Mr. O’Rourke would start as a clear underdog against Mr. Abbott in the general election race.
Mr. Abbott’s margin of victory in the Republican primary race will show whether his moves during the past legislative session — addressing transgender athletes, abortion and guns — helped insulate him from attacks from the right and “put him in a good position to not only win but show that he is the undisputed leader of the Texas Republican Party, said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University.
Polls show Mr. Abbott has a double-digit lead over Mr. O’Rourke in a hypothetical general election matchup.
Attorney general
Mr. Paxton, a Republican, will learn whether voters are willing to overlook felony fraud charges, an FBI investigation and reports of an extramarital affair and reward him for being a far-right warrior, a thorn in the side of the Biden administration and a loyal foot soldier for Mr. Trump.
His competition includes state Land Commissioner George P. Bush, a son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Other Republican contenders are Rep. Louie Gohmert and Eva Guzman, a former state Supreme Court justice.
Mr. Paxton won Mr. Trump’s endorsement after filing a lawsuit challenging the 2020 election results in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which helped power Joseph R. Biden’s victory.
The challengers have tried to chip away at Mr. Paxton’s lead by sounding the alarm on his personal and legal troubles.
The race has received extra attention because it pits the Bush family legacy against Mr. Trump’s iron grip on the Republican Party.
Polls show Mr. Paxton is likely headed toward a runoff with Mr. Bush.
Mr. Paxton has tried to solidify his base and directed some of his most recent attacks at Mr. Gohmert.
“Gohmert might be the most dangerous to Paxton because he can siphon voters away from the right wing,” said Joshua Blank, a research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. “The real question is whether Paxton can escape without a runoff.
“Paxton has an incredibly strong brand with the activist base of the Republican Party,” Mr. Blank said.
Mr. Bush and Ms. Guzman, meanwhile, have tangled over their plans on immigration and the southern border. Those issues have driven much of the debate, and polls show they resonate with Republican primary voters.
A recent University of Texas poll found Mr. Abbott was the preferred pick of 47% of registered voters who intend to vote in the Republican primary, followed by Mr. Bush at 21%, Ms. Guzman at 16% and Mr. Gohmert at 15%.
The poll had a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
11th Congressional District
Rep. Kevin Brady’s announced retirement set off a scramble to replace him among a crowded field of candidates in the deep-red district, which stretches from the outreaches of the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area west to Midland and Odessa.
Christian Collins and former Navy SEAL Morgan Luttrell are considered top contenders in the race. Mr. Collins has the backing of Sen. Ted Cruz, and Mr. Luttrell has the support of former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.
Mr. Luttrell’s brother, Marcus, wrote the best-selling memoir “Lone Survivor,” which detailed how he was the only surviving member of a group from SEAL Team 10 after a 2005 clash with Taliban militants in Afghanistan.
28th Congressional District
Of the 38 congressional races playing out in Texas, no contest has received more national media attention than Mr. Cuellar’s bid for a 10th term in the 28th Congressional District in southwest Texas, which extends from Austin to the border with Mexico.
The race is among the primaries that will measure the strength of far-left purity tests across the country and the resiliency of incumbent lawmakers who are less strident in their ideology.
Ms. Cisneros, an immigration advocate, has become a darling of the party’s left wing, having secured endorsements from Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Sen. Bernard Sanders of Vermont and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, among others.
“Cuellar is a rather unusual Democrat,” Mr. Blank said. “For the most part, this seems to have benefited him historically in the district, but as things have gotten more polarized, Cisneros’ ability to point out how Cuellar does not fit the mold of a typical Democrat has hurt.”
Ms. Cisneros also has the backing of Justice Democrats, the liberal group that helped power Ms. Ocasio Cortez’s rise in 2018. The activist members have been fighting to add to their number in the House to push the party further to the left.
“This is an opportunity to get a progressive voice at the table where decisions are made,” Ms. Warren told reporters during a recent campaign swing through San Antonio.
Ms. Cisneros and her far-left supporters have been gunning for Mr. Cuellar’s seat for two cycles. Mr. Cuellar defeated Ms. Cisneros by 4 percentage points in 2020.
The race is different this year in part because House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat who endorsed Mr. Cuellar two years ago, has stayed on the sidelines.
Mr. Cuellar was still on solid footing. He had more money than his challenger heading into their rematch before the FBI raided his home and campaign office in January. He denies any wrongdoing.
The raid shook up the race, giving Ms. Cisneros the chance to suggest he was not only too conservative for the district but also flat-out corrupt.
“People have not brought it up to me. They know my record. They know what I’ve done,” Mr. Cuellar told Politico last month. “They don’t want to have somebody from outside the district tell somebody how to vote here.”
Ms. Cisneros said at a recent campaign stop that Mr. Cuellar voted with Mr. Trump 70% of the time and is anti-choice and anti-labor.
Mr. Jones, the Rice University professor, said Republicans would welcome the opportunity to run against Ms. Cisneros in November because they see her as easier to defeat.
“If Cuellar wins the primary, it is going to be next to impossible for Republicans to flip the seat, barring something more to come out of the FBI investigation,” he said. “But it is a different scenario if Cisneros wins because she is objectively way to the left of the average November voter in District 28.”
30th Congressional District
Retiring Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, who served nearly 30 years in Congress, endorsed state Rep. Jasmine Crockett to succeed her.
Ms. Crockett, a civil rights lawyer, has made racial equity and criminal justice reform centerpieces of her campaign in the Dallas-area district, which is predominantly Black.
She raised her profile last year when she fled to Washington with dozens of fellow Democrats to protest the Republican-backed overhaul of the state’s voting laws. Democrats said the changes would disproportionately impact minority voters.
Other members of the Dallas political establishment have lined up behind other candidates in the primary race.
Rep. Marc Veasey is backing Jane Hope Hamilton, who served as Texas state director for the Biden 2020 campaign.
The Texas Tribune reported that Ms. Hamilton also has endorsements from Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price, former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk and state Rep. Chris Turner, the Democratic leader in the Texas House of Representatives.
Other candidates in the race are former state Rep. Barbara Mallory Caraway, community organizer Arthur Dixon, former Dallas City Council member Vonciel Jones Hill, Cedar Hill school board member Keisha Lankford, Navy veteran Jessica Mason, former legislative staffer Abel Mulugheta and former Dallas County Constable Roy Williams Jr.
The race is expected to go to a runoff.
35th Congressional District
Political analysts say they are keeping an eye on the Democratic primary in the 35th Congressional District, which stretches from San Antonio to Austin.
Greg Casar, a 32-year-old liberal member of the Austin City Council, is locked in a competitive race with state Rep. Eddie Rodriguez.
Mr. Casar has scored endorsements from several far-left groups, including Justice Democrats, the Working Families Party and Democracy for America, as well as endorsements from Ms. Warren, Mr. Sanders and Ms. Ocasio-Cortez.
38th Congressional District
Mr. Trump has made a series of endorsements in the congressional races playing out across Texas, including in Houston’s newest congressional district, the 38th, where state lawmakers carved out the district with Wesley Hunt in mind.
Republicans are looking to bring more diversity to their ranks, and Mr. Hunt, who is Black, would do just that. A former Army captain and Iraq War veteran, Mr. Hunt made a name for himself in 2020 after he came within 4 percentage points of defeating Rep. Lizzie Fletcher, a Democrat.
Since then, he has stayed on the radar of national Republicans. He has won support from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm for House Republicans, has showcased Mr. Hunt in their Young Guns program.
Mr. Hunt, however, has nine primary opponents, making his path to winning the majority and avoiding a runoff more difficult.
Mark Ramsey is shaping up to be his toughest rival. He has won notable endorsements from the Conservative Republicans of Texas, Texas Conservative Review and the Link Letter, suggesting the race could be competitive.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.