OPINION:
Events in Russia, Ukraine and China have pushed U.S. talks with Iran over a new nuclear agreement to the background. That is a mistake.
As they try to resurrect the 2015 JCPOA Iran nuclear deal, U.S. diplomats seem poised to capitulate to Iranian demands. Yet the JCPOA technically is a dead letter and cannot be revived as signed. Are President Biden and his team so desperate for “wins” that they no longer care about the national interest? Are they counting on an absence of attention to spin whatever deal is reached as a victory and the achievement of something that cannot be achieved?
The Biden team seems prepared to capitulate to extortion. Iran demanded sanctions relief as the price for engaging in these talks, not the price of agreeing to forego nuclear weapons. Iran also demanded the release of $10 billion of frozen Iranian funds in addition to $3.5 billion previously released as a “gesture of goodwill.” As if these contributions to Iran’s military capabilities were insufficient, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has said the U.S. decision to restore the sanctions waiver was “good but not enough.” Once again, Mr. Amirabdollahian reiterated Iran’s demand that the U.S. “guarantee” that it will not withdraw from the deal again.
What is going on? The Iranians know that Mr. Biden can’t make such a guarantee. No agreement — good or bad — will ever be submitted to the Senate for advice and consent to ratification as a constitutional treaty. Former President Barack Obama knew that in 2015, and certainly Mr. Biden knows it now. One can only guess that it is another Iranian ploy for additional concessions and cash. Mr. Biden seems bound to the 2015 deal — out of loyalty to his former chief? Disregarding technical realities? Iran just may get them.
The technical reality is that Iran’s nuclear weapons program has moved forward substantially since 2015 and will not go backward. Sanctions allowed Russian, Chinese and European companies to work at the Iranian nuclear sites, helping Iran progress.
Meanwhile, Israel has changed its approach. In 2015, then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then-Minister Naftali Bennett fought the Iran nuclear agreement with every fiber of their being. They failed. Now, as prime minister, Bennett still opposes a resuscitation of the JCPOA but is not following the Netanyahu example of rushing to Washington to press Israel’s case, although Israel’s existence remains anathema to Iran.
A new concern here appears to be a change in the Israeli position on the negotiations and a new deal. Although not a party to the actual negotiations, the Israeli leadership has strongly opposed any concessions or new agreements as they are the prime target for an Iranian nuclear attack.
Instead of pressing this directly with Mr. Biden, Mr. Bennett sent his national security adviser, Eyal Hulata, to Washington for low-key meetings with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Mr. Bennett did have a phone call with Mr. Biden last Sunday — the first time they have spoken since Mr. Bennett saw him briefly in Glasgow three months ago. Iran featured in the official readouts of their call, but only as one item among several.
Israel seems resigned. Since Mr. Biden took office 13 months ago with the express intention of rejoining the JCPOA, one main obstacle has been the Israeli position. Now there is a comprehensive policy in the Israeli government to lower its profile. Briefings to journalists are all being made off-the-record and on deep background. Mr. Bennett met with reporters from the major Israeli news organizations this week, but the emphasis was not on the talks in Vienna.
Mr. Bennett’s message is that the current deal is bad and that the U.S. should insist on a “longer and stronger” agreement with Iran. The implied message is that Mr. Biden is doing what he has to do to fulfill his election promise and try and remedy his disastrous failures in other areas and horrible poll numbers before the midterm elections. The Trump alternative approach of “maximum sanctions” did not stop Iran’s nuclear progress either. Anyway, Mr. Biden is now the president of Israel’s principal ally. Mr. Bennett and his government are in a bind.
They want to keep things calm with the Biden administration and have real criticism for former President Donald Trump, who withdrew from the JCPOA without a coherent plan and took the step without a serious plan for Israel.
Most members of the Israeli cabinet are still hoping that somehow the U.S. can get something out of the Iranians in Vienna, so they’re not going to accept publicly that leaving the JCPOA was a mistake. They are also fully aware that U.S. Republicans are still opposed to Mr. Obama’s 2015 Iran deal and may be back in control of Congress next January and of the White House two years after that. No point angering them.
Mr. Bennett himself may be in store for a torrent of toxic criticism from Mr. Netanyahu if the U.S. does rejoin the JCPOA, and at this point still looks more afraid of his old boss than an Iranian bomb. He is already trying to lower both profile and expectations and is changing the Israeli narrative on Iran.
Israel is now emphasizing that it is a mistake to focus only on the Iranian nuclear threat, and the most immediate threats are Iran’s proxies on Israel’s borders. Mr. Bennett wants the public to focus on what Israel is doing, especially in the regular attacks on various Iran-related targets in Syria, to fight Iran on multiple fronts, and not just the nuclear one.
He is also trying to convince Israelis that the Iranian nuclear program is actually a liability for Iran, as Tehran spends billions on it rather than helping its own suffering population. Perhaps Israel can outspend Iran on military technology, such as the missile defense laser system that is expected to be deployed within a year near the Gaza Strip and then on Israel’s northern border. The concept is that Israel can ultimately bankrupt Iran’s submission, just as former President Ronald Reagan did to the Soviet Union in the 1980s.
Whether or not this new narrative can be translated into reality remains to be seen, but for now, it’s better than having a public fight with Mr. Biden. For Mr. Bennett, it may even help defuse the attacks from Mr. Netanyahu at home.
• Abraham Wagner has served in several national security positions, including the NSC Staff under Presidents Nixon and Ford. He is the author of the recent book “Henry Kissinger: Pragmatic Statesman in Hostile Times.”
Please read our comment policy before commenting.