Demings’ war chest faces test of Florida GOP’s expanding voter edge as she bids to oust Rubio

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Democrat Val Demings has raised record sums of campaign cash, but she faces an uphill battle to unseat incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, thanks to the state’s steadily expanding GOP electorate.

Mrs. Demings’ $8.4 million fundraising haul in the third quarter of 2021 was historic and far exceeded the $6 million raised by Mr. Rubio.

Mrs. Demings, who represents Florida’s 10th House District in Orlando, pulled in another $7.1 million in the final three months of last year.

Her campaign celebrated the eye-popping numbers, proclaiming she has raised “the most funds of any Senate challenger in Florida history.”

But Mrs. Demings’ fundraising may not equate to voter enthusiasm for her candidacy in the Sunshine State.

Much of the money came from outside the state, via Facebook ads and emails that targeted nationwide small donors, reported Bully Pulpit Interactive, a research and polling company, which provided data to Politico.

Mrs. Demings, 64, a former Orlando police chief who is the strong favorite to win the Democratic spot on the November ballot, will have to woo Florida’s red-leaning electorate.

That means overcoming data showing that the Republican base is growing, while the Democratic base is shrinking.

The Florida Division of Elections reported last month that the Republican Party now has an advantage of more than 67,000 active registered voters.

In Florida, where narrow victories have become the norm, the edge could prove critical. Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, won in 2018 by about 32,000 votes, and Republican Sen. Rick Scott beat Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson by 10,000 votes. 

“Overwhelmingly, more people are choosing to register to the Republican Party on their own and this trend shows no sign of subsiding,” Helen Aguirre Ferre, executive director of the Florida Republican Party, told The Washington Times.

Mrs. Aguirre Ferre credits the popularity of Mr. DeSantis, who has helped grow Florida’s economy while battling against COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccine and mask mandates, and banning unpopular education initiatives such as critical race theory.

The party has benefited from an influx of new residents fleeing high-tax blue states. According to the Tax Foundation, which used data from the U.S. Census, Florida was among the top 10 states for inbound migration and saw a population increase of more than 1%.

It’s a statistic Mrs. Demings may struggle to overcome, given recent Republican victories in the state.

But Mrs. Demings is up for the challenge, say campaign staffers.

The fundraising haul will pay for advertising in Florida’s expensive media markets, which can project the former Orlando police chief’s message to voters and perhaps activate those who have been sitting on the sidelines in recent elections.

“We’ve seen that money isn’t everything, but it’s certainly a good indicator of where we are in the race, and that she’s ready to take it to Rubio and talk to voters across the state,” a Demings campaign aide told The Washington Times.

The campaign of Mr. Rubio, 50, says the two-term senator is taking nothing for granted.

“We’re working each day to prevent Val Demings from becoming the 51st vote for Biden’s agenda in the Senate.  While she spends her time raising money from the liberal elite on the coasts, Marco remains focused on earning the support of Floridians,” said Rubio campaign communications director Elizabeth Gregory.